• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Marzieh Asgari; Morteza Khorsandi; Abdolrasol Ghasemi
Abstract
Renewable energies are more compatible with the environment and their preparation and production have less pollution. In addition, since there is no end in sight for this type of energy, renewable energies take on a greater share in the world's energy supply system day by day, even in countries with ...
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Renewable energies are more compatible with the environment and their preparation and production have less pollution. In addition, since there is no end in sight for this type of energy, renewable energies take on a greater share in the world's energy supply system day by day, even in countries with fossil energy. The purpose of this research is to investigate the factors affecting the consumption of renewable energy in OPEC member countries using the panel data approach in the period from 2004 to 2018. In this research, the effects of factors such as good governance index, human capital, intensity of carbon dioxide emission, income (GDP) and crude oil price were investigated. The results of estimating the model using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS method indicated that the good governance index, human capital, carbon dioxide emission intensity and income (GDP) have a positive and significant effect on the consumption of renewable energy in OPEC member countries, but the price Crude oil has no significant effect on the consumption of this group of energies in the mentioned countries. Factors such as the high cost of establishing renewable industries in OPEC member countries and the dependence of these countries' economies on oil revenues can be considered among the reasons for this result.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Mohammad Mahdi Najafi; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase ...
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Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase in the high inflation rate is associated with macroeconomic instability, increased welfare, unfair distribution of wealth, and a decrease in household purchasing power. Monetarist considers excessive growth of money volume, excess demand in the commodity market, some cost pressure and increase in the price of production inputs, and institutionalists consider structural factors and bottlenecks in various economic and commercial sectors to be the main cause of inflation. Therefore, knowing the factors affecting inflation and providing a solution to control and reduce inflation can lead to socio-economic justice. The components of good governance can also lead to the reduction of inflation through the channel of increasing productivity and improving institutional quality and increasing the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. This research aims to investigate the factors influencing inflation with an emphasis on good governance in oil exporting countries using the generalized moment method (GMM) in the time period (2011-2021). The obtained results indicate that the inflation break, the difference between GDP growth and liquidity growth had a positive effect and good governance had a negative effect on the inflation rate.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
EZATOLLAH TAYEBI; Teymur Mohammadi; morteza khorsandi; abdorasol ghasemi; mohammad sayadi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed ...
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The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
parisa Mohajeri; Reza Taleblou
Abstract
The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the ...
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The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the prevailing assumption of the existence of only one information layer per trading day in PIN is inconsistent with the real-world empirical evidence and exposes it to a considerable underestimation bias. In this paper, we estimate information asymmetry for 55 listed companies in the energy sector during the period from 2017:Q1 to 2023:Q2, utilizing the Multi-Layer Probability of Informed Trading (MPIN) model introduced by Ghachem and Ersan (2023). The findings indicate: First, the assumption of a single information layer is satisfied for only 2.67% of the 1,200 stock/season observations, which implies the necessity of using MPIN to estimate information asymmetry. Second, the use of PIN not only leads to significant underestimation bias, but also provides an inaccurate picture of the ranking of companies from the perspective of information asymmetry. Third, the energy sector faces an average information asymmetry of 34.4%, and estimations reveal that private information reached its peak in the summer of 2020, exceeding 49%. Fourth, the symbols "Bepeyvand" from the electricity, gas, and steam sub-sector and "Shapna" from the refining sub-sector hold the highest (64.75%) and lowest (18.9%) information asymmetry, respectively.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mahboobeh Farahati; Leyla Salimi; Mehdi Gholizadeh Eratbeni
Abstract
Lack of security, political affiliations, formation, and upsurge of environmental problems are the most significant reasons for altering the approach of energy supply sources from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This alteration in approach necessitates a growth in the level of financial support ...
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Lack of security, political affiliations, formation, and upsurge of environmental problems are the most significant reasons for altering the approach of energy supply sources from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This alteration in approach necessitates a growth in the level of financial support and a rise in the technology level in extracting renewable energies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of diverse methods of financing renewable energy projects, such as foreign direct investment, research and development expenses, and financial market development on the amount of renewable energy consumption for 26 developing countries from 2008 to 2019. The results of the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) technique show that foreign direct investment and research and development expenditures have a positive and significant effect on the consumption of renewable energy, while the development of financial markets does not have a significant effect on the consumption of renewable energy. Based on the results, since the defined methods of financing do not have an adverse effect on renewable energy consumption, it is recommended that the government, to guarantee the indicators of the nation's welfare, including environmental quality, put the laws covering these financing methods in the main plan and support.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Yazdan Gudarzi farahani; Zoleikha Morsali Arzanagh; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of investment in the renewable energy on Iran's macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical information related to the period 1991-2022 was used. For this purpose, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method was used. The information ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of investment in the renewable energy on Iran's macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical information related to the period 1991-2022 was used. For this purpose, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method was used. The information used in this article was collected from the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Energy. The theoretical framework of the present study will be based on investment models, optimization and inter-sectoral balance. In this study, the effects of investment in the field of renewable energy through public and private companies are included in the model. The results obtained from the investment shock in the field of renewable energy indicated that investment in this sector had the greatest impact on the growth of economic added value in the industry, services, agriculture and oil and gas sectors. Also, the obtained results indicate that in order to increase social welfare and achieve economic development, a 4-year investment period with a 50% growth in the field of renewable energy infrastructure in the country is necessary.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Asghar Vahedi; Esmaiel Abounoori; parviz malekzadeh
Abstract
In this research, the effect of oil price shock on the return of the Iranian stock market has been evaluated using a new quantile-on-quantile approach. To do this, first, the oil price shock has been calculated using the structural vector Autoregression method, then the effect of the oil price shock ...
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In this research, the effect of oil price shock on the return of the Iranian stock market has been evaluated using a new quantile-on-quantile approach. To do this, first, the oil price shock has been calculated using the structural vector Autoregression method, then the effect of the oil price shock on the return of the Iranian stock market has been investigated using the quantile-on-quantile approach. The statistical population consists of the data related to oil variables and the stock price index of the Iranian stock market. The statistical sample includes 200 observations of the monthly data related to the oil variables and the stock price index of the Iranian stock market during the period of 1385: 1 -1401: 12. The results of this research show that the effect of the oil price shock on the Iranian stock market varies across different quantiles of the Iranian stock market returns. A negative oil price shock has a larger effect on stock market returns when the stock market is bullish. Also, in the normal state of the stock market; Positive oil price shock have a large negative effect on stock market returns. Based on these observations, it is concluded that the relationship between oil price and stock market returns can depend on the nature of oil price shocks and the performance of the stock market.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Zinat Goli; Hamid Amadeh; taymoor mohamadi
Abstract
Environmental concerns and global warming have posed a challenge to the continued use of fossil fuels, especially oil. In order to achieve the goal of limiting the temperature increase to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, the IPCC has developed scenarios considering the reduction ...
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Environmental concerns and global warming have posed a challenge to the continued use of fossil fuels, especially oil. In order to achieve the goal of limiting the temperature increase to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, the IPCC has developed scenarios considering the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and the increase in the use of renewable energy. This issue poses a serious threat to economies heavily reliant on oil exports, such as OPEC. To examine the effects of these scenarios, supply and demand functions for oil were estimated using the VECM model. The findings indicate that the oil supply function has a direct relationship with the real oil price, with a long-term coefficient of 0.1391. Additionally, one percent increase in the production of non-OPEC countries will lead to a 0.7323 percent increase in OPEC oil supply. The price elasticity of demand in the long term is estimated to be -0.077. The elasticity of industrial production in advanced and emerging countries is estimated 0.7756 and 0.6241, respectively. Based on the estimated coefficients, the changes in OPEC supply in the most pessimistic IPCC scenario will be 40% reduction in 2030 and 94% reduction in 2050 compared to 2010.
Farshad Momeni
Abstract
Oil and gas are exhaustible resources and maximizing national benefits in exploiting these resources is very important. In this regard and according to the general policies of the resistance economy of Iran, which emphasizes the endogenous and externally oriented economy, the purpose of internationalization ...
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Oil and gas are exhaustible resources and maximizing national benefits in exploiting these resources is very important. In this regard and according to the general policies of the resistance economy of Iran, which emphasizes the endogenous and externally oriented economy, the purpose of internationalization of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has been followed in this paper, which makes it an inclusive institution, optimal allocation of oil dollars also maximizes the intergeneration benefits. This purpose was followed by a historical and social analysis and historical review of rules and contracts of Iran’s oil upstream. by Williamson’s four-level theory, Ostrom's institutional framework and North’s social orders. The participants and institutional environment of the Iran oil upstream were analyzed. Internationalization has never been in the description of the duties of the NIOC, . In order to succeed in the internationalization of the NIOC, it should be focused on the aspect of techno - ware of the Iran's oil upstream, as well as the need for the convergence and support of the government with this purpose and governance reform of Iran oil upstream according to the current conditions of the country's reservoirs and the ability to carry out successful oil operations inside and outside the borders of the country. The first step to build an inclusive institution in the upstream sector of Iranian oil is to convince the extractive institutions benefiting from oil rents that such institutional changes will not reduce their benefits from rents.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Abbas Memarnejad; sheyda Nematollahi Sarvestani; Teimor Mohammadi
Abstract
The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase ...
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The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase from January 2026. Some countries, including the United States of America and Japan, have also predicted similar policies. This is while developing and developed countries have committed to take measures to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions based on the Paris Agreement. This shows the concern of countries applying carbon tariffs because of carbon leakage even after the creation of the Paris Agreement. Considering that the European Union has announced that it will first apply carbon tariffs to energy industries, this study uses the GTAP-E model to investigate the change in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's industries as a result of the imposing of carbon tariffs by the European Union, the Japan, the United States of America and all regions on Iran's energy intensive industries. The statistical of the research includes 141 regions and 65 section in the GTAP10 data base that published in 2019. The estimation of the model shows that under all four scenarios, the amount of production and carbon dioxide emissions will decrease in the energy-intensive industries sector and the entire industries of Iran.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Seyyed Mohammad Ghaem Zabihi; Rasta Kamalian; Fatemeh Akbari; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani
Abstract
The current study has studied the threshold effects of energy consumption structure and GDP per capita variables on carbon emissions from 2002 to 2019 for 37 selected countries (with middle to high-income levels) using the non-linear approach of Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. For this purpose, ...
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The current study has studied the threshold effects of energy consumption structure and GDP per capita variables on carbon emissions from 2002 to 2019 for 37 selected countries (with middle to high-income levels) using the non-linear approach of Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. For this purpose, two separate models have been estimated by considering energy consumption structure transfer and GDP per capita variables. The results indicate a non-linear relationship between the studied variables in both models. The estimation results of both models show that GDP per capita (in the threshold state of energy consumption structure) and energy consumption structure (in the threshold state of GDP per capita) positively affect carbon emissions. Also, urbanization and trade openness have a positive effect on carbon emissions in both models. Thus, the results show that increasing efficiency in energy consumption and GDP per capita structure can significantly reduce carbon emissions. These findings point to the importance of optimizing energy policies and the crucial role of changes in the economic structure in managing greenhouse gas emissions.
Alireza Taghipour
Abstract
With the change in policy by the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum in 2017 to outsource the operation and maintenance of oil and gas units to the private sector, the O&M outsourcing contract framework has drawn more attention than ever.This study first explores the current state of O&M contracts, ...
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With the change in policy by the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum in 2017 to outsource the operation and maintenance of oil and gas units to the private sector, the O&M outsourcing contract framework has drawn more attention than ever.This study first explores the current state of O&M contracts, in conjunction with the laws and regulations, and wraps up that the Ministry of Petroleum has an inherent duty to comprehensively outsourcing these operations to the private sector. The next step points out that the vast majority of Operation contracts, which are always claimed as O&M contracts, are basically manpower contracts.The next step is to categorise these contracts into two categories: independent and integrated. This study divided independent categories into seven categories: manpower, inspection, packaging, KPI packaging, hybrid, and full coverage. In opposed to the current method of making independent O&M contracts in the oil and gas industry, the results showed that optimal O&M outsourcing takes place through integrated contracts in which the operation is a partial part of that contract.Furthermore, a review of the framework of integrated upstream contracts, particularly the Iranian Upstream Petroleum Contract (IPC), and some types of integrated downstream contracts, such as the EPC+O&M and the FIDIC DBO model, conclusively demonstrates that "Build Operation and Transfer" and "Rehabilitate, Operate, Transfer" contracts are one of the most effective methods of outsourcing these operations.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Majid Aghaei
Abstract
One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level ...
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One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level in different countries. Given the importance of this topic, this study seeks to investigate the influence of financial development on the development of renewable energy technologies in two distinct groups of rich in natural resources countries, characterized by differing levels of financial system development (20 developed resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems, and 25 developing resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems). The examination and empirical testing of this relationship, along with its contributing factors, have been conducted using the Two-Stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimators by Arellano and Bond, and Blundell and Bond, over the period from 2000 to 2021. Based on the results, financial development has demonstrated a positive impact on the deployment of renewable energy technologies across all studied countries, underscoring the undeniable role of financial development in renewable energy development. Furthermore, according to the research findings, the abundance of natural resources in resource-rich developed countries has not only led to a reduction in the capacity of renewable energy technologies installation but also has facilitated the deployment of renewable energy technologies, especially in resource-rich developed countries with advanced financial markets.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Fariborz PARTOVIRAD; Teimor Mohammadi; abbas shkeri; morteza khorsandi
Abstract
Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the ...
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Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the prospects of changes in the Iran's electric energy system in the medium and long term. By using new approaches, this prediction will have higher reliability. In this research, using the state-space approach and combining it with Markov regime switching, the main sources of uncertainties were included in the model. By using the data of electric energy feed-in the system to supply electricity demand and the average real price of electricity and temperature and the number of customers in the ten-year period of 2013-2022, the parameters of the model were estimated based on the state-space approach and Markov regime switching. State-space approach in the form of time-varying parameters and Markov switching approach in the form of variance fluctuations were included in the model. The results showed that the model based on this integrated approach gives a more accurate prediction than the classical model of electricity demand. The standard error of the estimated equations is reduced to 0.1 (in the competing model, the standard error of the corresponding equation is 0.03, and in the integrated approach, it is 0.002 for peak and 0.004 off-peak periods). The sensitivity of electricity demand to the real price of electricity and temperature changes is decreasing and the demand for marginal costumer is increasing.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
musa khoshkalam khosroshahi; zahra moradi
Abstract
Energy is always a widely used input in the production sector and used in the distribution and consumption of many goods and services, which should be used optimally. One of the indicators showing the optimal use of energy input is the energy intensity index. Obviously, the lower the energy intensity, ...
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Energy is always a widely used input in the production sector and used in the distribution and consumption of many goods and services, which should be used optimally. One of the indicators showing the optimal use of energy input is the energy intensity index. Obviously, the lower the energy intensity, it means that less energy has been used for each unit of production of goods and services. Several factors can be mentioned that affect energy intensity, of which innovation is one of the key ones. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of several factors on energy intensity in selected countries of the MENA region during the period of 2010-2020, with an emphasis on innovation and its two sub-indices (Information and communication technology and Access to finance). To achieve the goal of the research, the panel data model (panel data) for 13 selected MENA countries and the GMM estimation method have been used. The results show that the influence of control variables including "government final consumption expenditure", "energy price" and "trade openness" on energy intensity is negative and significant. The estimation findings of the first model indicate a negative and significant effect of the overall innovation index on energy intensity, and the estimation results of the second and third models also indicate a negative and significant effect of the innovation sub-indices (information and communication technology and financial access) on the energy intensity of the selected countries in the period. is under investigation.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
reza bakhshi
Abstract
The need for development is increasing and the demand for energy is rising. The construction of new power plants has become necessary to meet this growing demand. To protect the environment and conserve finite fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are crucial to the transition to green energy production. ...
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The need for development is increasing and the demand for energy is rising. The construction of new power plants has become necessary to meet this growing demand. To protect the environment and conserve finite fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are crucial to the transition to green energy production. Examining the impact of energy production on the environment is crucial, and not just in terms of financial, economic and geographical factors. The aim of this study is to understand the contribution of renewable and non-renewable power plants to the total emissions generated over a one-year operating period. The RETscreen analysis software was used to estimate the emission coefficient and a cost-benefit analysis method was used to evaluate the environmental impact. The value of each ton of carbon dioxide and the discount rate for environmental effects are key factors in estimating the emission coefficient of the different energy systems. Renewable energy systems have an emission coefficient of zero, while gas turbine systems, two-way gas engines, two-way biogas engines and coal-fired steam turbines have emission coefficients of 700, 747, 45 and 1,509 billion rials, respectively.
تمرکز بر هریک از موارد فوق الذکر با توجه به جایگاه و نقش جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Mohammad Panahi Dorcheh; mohammad tohidi; Seyed Mohammadreza Khaleghi
Abstract
Iran's oil industry, as the most important source of foreign exchange income and the country's largest energy sector, has a high potential in the direction of realizing resistance economy policies. One of the solutions to neutralize the sanctions is "selling crude oil through the stock ...
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Iran's oil industry, as the most important source of foreign exchange income and the country's largest energy sector, has a high potential in the direction of realizing resistance economy policies. One of the solutions to neutralize the sanctions is "selling crude oil through the stock exchange". The sale of crude oil through the stock exchange has advantages such as transparency, discovery of the highest reasonable price level due to the competitive environment between buyers, diversity in the purposes of oil sales, and prevention of corruption and rent. Despite all these advantages, the supply of crude oil in the energy exchange has been unsuccessful in practice. This research aims to identify the reasons for the failure of crude oil supply in the energy exchange and to introduce solutions for the successful supply of crude oil in the energy exchange. The current research has a qualitative approach, from the point of view of the practical goal and from the point of view of the method of collecting descriptive data, it is considered a survey. In this research, by interviewing experts in the field of energy industry and commodity exchanges and using the theme analysis method, the reasons for the failure of crude oil supply in the energy exchange under 11 organizing themes and three overarching themes and effective solutions for the supply of crude oil in the energy exchange, as follows 21 organizing themes and three overarching themes were coded and classified; Then the identified solutions were prioritized using Friedman's non-parametric test.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Hamid Amadeh; mohamad Hasani
Abstract
The growing natural gas consumption has made it difficult to supply gas to power plants and large industries in the cold seasons and forces these industries to use polluting fuels. One of the consequences of this situation is air pollution. Due to the inelastic demand of natural gas, command policies ...
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The growing natural gas consumption has made it difficult to supply gas to power plants and large industries in the cold seasons and forces these industries to use polluting fuels. One of the consequences of this situation is air pollution. Due to the inelastic demand of natural gas, command policies cannot prevent the increasing trend of gas consumption. So it is necessary to use incentive policies to manage consumption. Recently, in developed countries, regulatory instruments based on exchange of certificates, such as tradable savings certificates based on the market, have been significantly developed and had positive results. Considering the importance of gas consumption management and with the aim of creating a mechanism for certificates of natural gas exchange, in this research, based on the experiences of the leading countries in this field and the results of consensus of the elites, design a mechanism for the exchange of consumption savings certificates of natural gas. The results of Delphi analysis showed that the mechanism of issuing and exchanging natural gas saving certificates is feasible and this mechanism makes households and business units find motivation to save natural gas consumption. Also, power plants and other large industries can fulfill part of their natural gas needs in the cold season by buying certificates from households in the established market, and in this way they can access clean fuel in the cold seasons of the year.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Hamid Amadeh; Alireza Moghaddam; Morteza Khorsandi
Abstract
This study examined the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion of environmental quality in seven OPEC member countries from 1990 until 2019. According to the theoretical framework, economic policy uncertainty can directly or indirectly affect the ...
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This study examined the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion of environmental quality in seven OPEC member countries from 1990 until 2019. According to the theoretical framework, economic policy uncertainty can directly or indirectly affect the quality of the environment, such as through direct policy adjustment, consumption, and investment channels. In this regard, with the help of panel data, the experimental models of this study were estimated and evaluated by the Fully-modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The results indicate that the economic policy uncertainty and the oil price variables are statistically significant in both models, and their coefficient is positive. In other words, higher policy-related economic uncertainty and oil price over this period has led to higher carbon dioxide emissions and, thus, lower environmental quality in OPEC member countries. Ultimately, the estimates in the second model confirm an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and the quality of the environment of these countries in the mentioned period, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Teimor Mohammadi; Azam Abbas Mohsen
Abstract
Energy is a fundamental input in production, and its availability and use are essential for the social, economic, and technological advancement of a nation. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing along with rising production, primarily sourced from non-renewable resources. ...
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Energy is a fundamental input in production, and its availability and use are essential for the social, economic, and technological advancement of a nation. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing along with rising production, primarily sourced from non-renewable resources. The increase in production and economic development has led to higher greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in climate change, which poses a new challenge for countries. Energy efficiency is the most beneficial way to reduce greenhouse gases and control energy supply. In this regard, one of the responsibilities of governments is to find tools to minimize the national economy's energy efficiency gap by increasing energy efficiency within the economy.For this purpose, in this study, we used the Shephard energy distance function to define the energy efficiency index and the stochastic frontier analysis technique to estimate the energy efficiency gap in selected oil and gas producing countries from 1990 to 2022. We examined some factors influencing the energy efficiency gap and observed that the energy efficiency gap increased from 6% to 29% during the years under review. Additionally, foreign direct investment and total factor productivity have a negative impact, while urbanization has a positive impact on the energy efficiency gap.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohsen Kakakhani; Mojaba Almasi; kiomars sohaili
Abstract
One of the goals of the green economy is to reduce the negative environmental effects caused by the use of natural resources in developing economies. Investigating the separation of economic growth from fossil fuels is a key task that has been addressed in few studies. Therefore, the main purpose of ...
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One of the goals of the green economy is to reduce the negative environmental effects caused by the use of natural resources in developing economies. Investigating the separation of economic growth from fossil fuels is a key task that has been addressed in few studies. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of economic freedom on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels. In this study, the method of estimating the model is based on panel data, which is in the period (2000-2020) and for "developing countries (Iran, Brazil, India and China) and developed countries (America, England, Germany and France)" has been done. The estimated models are presented in the form of multivariate linear regression models according to the research hypotheses. Based on the obtained results, the first hypothesis according to the results of the fixed effects model and the generalized least squares method, the economic freedom variable had a positive and significant relationship with the dependent variable (economic growth rate). Therefore, for both groups of Countries at the 95% confidence level, economic freedom had a positive and significant effect on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
parisa Mohajeri; reza taleblou; samaneh ranjkhah zenuzghi
Abstract
This study employs a vector autoregression approach with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to investigate the spillover of volatility and risk among the stock markets of 13 OPEC and OPEC+ member countries, alongside Gold, Brent Oil, OPEC Oil, and the Dollar index. Daily data spanning from March 1, 2014, ...
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This study employs a vector autoregression approach with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to investigate the spillover of volatility and risk among the stock markets of 13 OPEC and OPEC+ member countries, alongside Gold, Brent Oil, OPEC Oil, and the Dollar index. Daily data spanning from March 1, 2014, to March 1, 2023, is utilized for analysis. Our findings reveal several key insights. First, the average systemic risk within the network of investigated variables has escalated in the years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, among the investigated countries, the stock markets of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Russia, Malaysia, and Nigeria serve as transmitters of fluctuations within the network, while the stock markets of Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Oman, Iran, Iraq, and Mexico act as receivers of volatilities. Third, significant volatilities in Iran's stock market returns originate from idiosyncratic shocks, with variables such as OPEC oil prices and the stock markets of Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait playing pivotal roles in explaining these fluctuations. Fourth, approximately 60% of the volatility in gold returns and the dollar index can be attributed to idiosyncratic risks. Fifth, compared to other OPEC+ member countries, the Saudi stock market's volatility exerts a more substantial influence on the volatilities observed in the global oil, gold, and dollar markets.
Ali Homayoun; Mohammad Qezelbash; mohammad tohidi
Abstract
it is of strategic importance to investigate the methods of financing the establishment of petroleum refinery units. Meanwhile, economic sanctions have seriously affected the access to financing methods, especially the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects. For this purpose, this research ...
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it is of strategic importance to investigate the methods of financing the establishment of petroleum refinery units. Meanwhile, economic sanctions have seriously affected the access to financing methods, especially the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects. For this purpose, this research has identified and ranked the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects according to the current conditions of the country's economic system. In order to identify the types of financing methods for petroleum refinery projects, all available library documents such as books, articles and related research reports were studied. In the next step, with the aim of firstly ensuring the statistics of all methods and secondly extracting the criteria for prioritizing financing methods, interviews were conducted with financing experts in the refinery and petrochemical industry, and the findings were analyzed using thematic analysis method. In the following, after the initial review and refinement of financing methods by the focal group, a questionnaire for prioritizing financing methods was compiled and provided to the experts. Examining the results of prioritization showed that joint venture (JV), build, operate and transfer (BOT), build, lease and transfer (BLT), lines of credit, engineering, procurement, construction and finance (EPCF), exchange of oil and oil products with other goods and equipment and even the project, participation in the net profit (Net Profit Interest) and pre-sale agreements (Off-Take Agreement), eight "main and priority methods", for the financing of suitable petrochemical projects in the current coordinates of Iran's economy
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Raheleh Shojaei; Farzaneh Khalili; Ali Emami Meibodi; Ali Nazari
Abstract
Finding effective factors on productivity for its impact on economic growth and development is essential for societies, especially countries that are in the process of development. By examining new researches and analyzing the economic conditions and problems of developing countries, we find the importance ...
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Finding effective factors on productivity for its impact on economic growth and development is essential for societies, especially countries that are in the process of development. By examining new researches and analyzing the economic conditions and problems of developing countries, we find the importance of the factor of energy consumption, especially non-renewable energies such as oil consumption, and the question of whether more energy (oil) consumption will lead the country towards productivity improvement is crucial for developing a development plan and roadmap. The study investigates the effect of energy consumption (oil) on total factor productivity using the Cobb-Douglas production function and solo growth model, for 10 developing countries including Iran, based on the Human Development Index from1996 to 2022. In this research, using panel data, first through the primary model, which is the generalized Cobb-Douglas function linear model, the total factor productivity was calculated, and then through the secondary model, including the total factor productivity variable, the research hypothesis was investigated. The results showed that the effect of energy consumption on total factor productivity (TFP) in selected developed countries is negative and meaningless and the effect of urbanization is negative and significant. Also, the effect of energy consumption and urbanization on the productivity of all factors in emerging and developing countries is negative and significant. The desirability of the Watson-R camera statistic and the significance of the overall regression were reviewed and confirmed in each group.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Sara Keshkar; Gholam Ali Kargar; Amir Ansari Ardali
Abstract
This qualitative study investigated the impact of utilizing renewable energy sources in football stadiums. The research focused on experts in sustainable development, stadium managers, and technical engineers involved in the Iranian Football Premier League from 2019 to 2020. Data analysis was conducted ...
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This qualitative study investigated the impact of utilizing renewable energy sources in football stadiums. The research focused on experts in sustainable development, stadium managers, and technical engineers involved in the Iranian Football Premier League from 2019 to 2020. Data analysis was conducted using qualitative content analysis methods. Research participants were selected through purposeful and snowball sampling methods, ultimately leading to 12 interviews that reached theoretical saturation. The analysis resulted in 44 open codes, which were further categorized into three key concepts: environmental management, improving the social and cultural situation, and enhancing the economic status. These categories encompassed areas such as reducing environmental risks, managing energy resources and pollution, improving social attitudes and welfare services, urban beautification, reducing organizational costs, promoting the stadium's brand, and generating income. Given global environmental crises and the impact of sports on the environment, it is recommended that government officials, policymakers, and sports managers support the utilization of renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy in football stadiums. These actions are necessary for sustainable development and carbon-free sports.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohammad Rahim Soltani; Mohammad Ali Afsharkazemi; Reza Radfar
Abstract
It is a necessity to use more renewable resources to produce clean energy. The purpose of this research is to design a biomass supply chain network model. It is three-level with two minimization functions in economic and bio-environmental costs. The main research gap solved in this study is the resilience ...
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It is a necessity to use more renewable resources to produce clean energy. The purpose of this research is to design a biomass supply chain network model. It is three-level with two minimization functions in economic and bio-environmental costs. The main research gap solved in this study is the resilience of the model, which examines the disruption in the supply of raw materials with a scenario approach. The mathematical model of the research is mixed integer linear programming. To single-target the function, under uncertainty, the fuzzy TH mathematical model has been used and the validation of the model has been investigated in a real case study in Tehran province. According to the findings from the output of GEMS software, which shows the optimal economic cost equal to 791354423200 Tomans and the emission of 1420469 grams of carbon dioxide per year, the optimal mode of construction of 4 power plants in the cities of Pakdasht, Qarchak, Parand and Mallard has been proposed. The sensitivity analysis on the parameters of the TH method and on the change of biomass supply values met the expectations. As a result, the proposed model has the necessary efficiency and has been able to be optimal in terms of cost and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by combining economic and environmental approaches. Therefore, the model has the necessary resilience.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
pouyan kiani; Kioumars Heydari; Maryam Nafisi Moghadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the price elasticity of household and non-household electricity demand across 31 provinces of Iran from 2011 to 2021. Due to the skewness of the dependent variable, the panel quantile regression method was chosen. The results show that the price elasticity ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the price elasticity of household and non-household electricity demand across 31 provinces of Iran from 2011 to 2021. Due to the skewness of the dependent variable, the panel quantile regression method was chosen. The results show that the price elasticity of household electricity demand ranges of -0.069 to -0.115. The price elasticity demand of non-household ranges from -0.021 to -0.043. It reveals that price elasticities are less than one for both groups. According to the results, electricity is an inelastic good in Iran. Also, the elasticity of electricity demand is higher for households than for non-household. Moreover, the results show that an increas in the price of natural gas, which is the closest substitute for electricity, has had a negligible impact on the electricity demand of the household and non-household sectors. Among other model results, we can mention the incredible influence of demand habits on household and non-household electricity demand.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Armin Sharifi; fateh habibi; bakhtiar Javaheri
Abstract
The literature has studied various factors affecting income inequality and the influence of energy security on the economy, while knowledge is rather limited regarding the linkage between energy security and income inequality. Therefore, in addition to conventional economic and financial aspects, the ...
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The literature has studied various factors affecting income inequality and the influence of energy security on the economy, while knowledge is rather limited regarding the linkage between energy security and income inequality. Therefore, in addition to conventional economic and financial aspects, the energy landscape requires a deeper examination of how energy market activities affect income inequality. The contributions of the current study can be summarized as follows: First, we fill the gap in the literature by examining the influence of energy security on income inequality. Second, unlike previous works, we delve into the non-linear impact of energy security on income inequality. Third, we employ a new DPT model to find the threshold variables. In current study, the effect of energy security in four dimensions (availability, accessibility, development capability and acceptability) on income inequality in Middle Eastern countries has been investigated. To achieve this goal, threshold panel regression and data from the period 2000-2021 have been used. The results show that among the four dimensions of energy security, only the acceptability dimension has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, and other energy dimensions do not have a significant effect on income inequality. The threshold level for the Middle East countries is calculated at 42032 dollars per capita. Therefore, governments should focus more on improving the efficiency of energy use. This not only helps to reduce the income gap, but also increases energy security optimally.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
zahra Shirzur Aliabadi; Hamid lalkhezri
Abstract
Many studies have shown that economic conditions affect energy intensity.As a fundamental component of macroeconomics, business cycles are a fundamental factor in energy intensity.The present study examines the asymmetric effect of business cycles on energy intensity in Iran in the period 1972-2020. ...
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Many studies have shown that economic conditions affect energy intensity.As a fundamental component of macroeconomics, business cycles are a fundamental factor in energy intensity.The present study examines the asymmetric effect of business cycles on energy intensity in Iran in the period 1972-2020. In order to analyze the relationships between the variables, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)was used.The results of the model show that in the short term, the impact of the negative impulse of the business cycle on the energy intensity has a negative effect until the first break and then a positive effect until the third break, while it is positive in the long term. But the positive impulse to the business cycle in the short and long term has a negative effect on energy intensity. Also the results show that the coefficients related to the logarithm variable of OPEC oil price in the short and long term are positive. But the short-term and long-term coefficients of the logarithm of the industrial structure index show that energy intensity decreases by 0.12%and increases by 0.04%in the short-term and long-term, respectively.Finally the results of Wald's test show that the effects of positive and negative impulses of business cycles on the energy intensity index are asymmetric in the longterm,but in the short term, this effect is symmetrical.Recognizing business cycles can lead to correct decision-making by policy makers in the development of the energy industry and at the same time, it can effectively prevent and even reduce the excessive growth of energy intensity
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
fatemeh rastehmoghaddam; mohammad nabi shahiki tash; Emad kazemzadeh
Abstract
Air pollution has been introduced as one of the important issues and concerns of today's human societies. Its impact on the economy and human health is very important and necessary. Epidemiological research shows that air pollutants can lead to cardiovascular diseases and ultimately heart attacks. ...
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Air pollution has been introduced as one of the important issues and concerns of today's human societies. Its impact on the economy and human health is very important and necessary. Epidemiological research shows that air pollutants can lead to cardiovascular diseases and ultimately heart attacks. The current research focuses on the principle that the use of renewable energy sources can help improve air quality and mortality caused by air pollution. In this research, the quantile regression method has been used for the data of RCEP member countries in the period from 2018 to 1996. The results show that in all quantiles, renewable energy is significant and negative, which can finally be concluded that the use of renewable energy in the management of air pollutants helps to reduce mortality and improve air quality. The results also show that an increase in GDP can lead to a decrease in deaths caused by air pollution; While the emission of CO2 and the rate of urbanization increases the mortality caused by air pollution.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
zahra sattarinasab; Abdolrasool Ghasemi; mahdi bahrololoum
Abstract
Abstract:
Due to current sanctions, financing upstream oil industry projects faces significant challenges. To design an effective financing portfolio for these projects, we first identified financing criteria through a literature review. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, we screened and determined six ...
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Abstract:
Due to current sanctions, financing upstream oil industry projects faces significant challenges. To design an effective financing portfolio for these projects, we first identified financing criteria through a literature review. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, we screened and determined six main criteria. The fuzzy DEMATEL technique revealed that among these criteria, repayment structure constraints, currency exchange rate fluctuation risk, external monitoring factors (cause type), and The financing cost factors, the time required to acquire financial resources, and the risk of failing to obtain financial resources are of the effect (dependent) type. Additionally, the time required to acquire financial resources has a greater weight compared to other criteria. Considering the weighted criteria the fuzzy TOPSIS technique showed that issuing forward contracts had the highest priority, while obtaining international bank loans had the lowest priority. The study involved 12 experts from the oil industry and the banking and capital markets, who provided responses to structured questionnaires.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Zahra Farshadfar; Sajad Piri
Abstract
High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability ...
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High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability to predict crude oil prices using non-linear patterns by artificial intelligence. For this purpose, four artificial intelligence networks MLP, RNN, LSTM 3366and GRU have been used and their capabilities compared to each other and the benchmark model, besides their prediction accuracy have been evaluated using the mean squared error method. The studied sample is North Sea Brent crude oil data from Aug 1st 2007 to May 31st 2024 on a daily, monthly and yearly basis.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models have several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone. Also, among the selected non-linear models, GRU has more accurate predictions with less error in different frequencies and in a shorter time.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models has several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Teimor Mohammadi; Azam Abbas Mohsen; Ali Emami Meibodi
Abstract
In recent decades, the role of energy as one of the main factors of economic development and social progress has increased dramatically. distribution and consumption. But these abundant energy resources are faced with challenges and problems such as efficiency gaps in energy consumption. One of the ...
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In recent decades, the role of energy as one of the main factors of economic development and social progress has increased dramatically. distribution and consumption. But these abundant energy resources are faced with challenges and problems such as efficiency gaps in energy consumption. One of the effective factors in the energy efficiency gap is the country's financial system. the financial system can have a significant impact on improving or weakening energy efficiency. The performance of the financial system, on the one hand, has increased energy consumption, which leads to a decrease in energy efficiency, and on the other hand, it improves technology and increases the level of energy efficiency. Therefore, the analysis of the effects of the financial system on the energy efficiency gap can be considered as one of the important issues in the direction of energy policies in Iran.
In this study, the functioning of the financial system on the energy efficiency gap in Iran in the period of 1990-2023 is investigated. First, the energy efficiency gap is estimated using Shepard's energy gap function and stochastic frontier analysis, and then we investigate the effects of financial systems on the energy efficiency gap in those years with the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) technique. The findings indicate that the banking system in the upper regime and the insurance system in the lower regime are effective in reducing the energy efficiency gap in Iran. The capital market in both regimes increases the energy efficiency gap.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mahnaz Rezazadeh; saeed Daei-Karimzadeh; Shahram Moeeni
Abstract
Energy security and environmental sustainability have been identified as key economic challenges in recent years. Most countries have shown a strong interest in achieving significant economic development through the development of exports and its diversification, and gradually the share of innovative ...
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Energy security and environmental sustainability have been identified as key economic challenges in recent years. Most countries have shown a strong interest in achieving significant economic development through the development of exports and its diversification, and gradually the share of innovative produced goods and services in total exports surpassed traditional exports. This change in the export pattern may change energy needs because the energy needed to produce new and industrial products (such as spacecraft, electrical equipment, telecommunication equipment, and..) is relatively higher. The exports diversification is a trade indicator and can play a role in encouraging the consumption of renewable energy. in this paper, the impact of diversification export, extensive export margin and intensive export margin as determinants of renewable energies, using the CS-ARDL model in countries with natural resource rents during the period of 2000-2020 has been investigated. The results of the study in the estimation of the first model show that the increase in export diversification has a positive effect on the consumption of clean energy, and the increased export diversification generally increases the consumption of these energies. Also, the estimation results of the second model indicate that the extensive export margin, which emphasizes the export of new products, has a positive and significant effect on the ratio of clean energy consumption, but the intensive export margin, which emphasizes the development of traditional trade, has a negative significant effect It has a ratio of clean energy consumption.
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