Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 fum
2 ferdowsi university of mashhad
3 Professor of Economics at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Abstract
Commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil prices, significantly impact the stock markets of commodity-exporting countries. This study investigates the relationship between commodity price changes and stock market returns in selected commodity-oriented countries. The analysis, conducted using the ARDL approach over the period January 2, 2001, to February 16, 2023, reveals that in the long run, oil price changes have a direct and significant positive relationship with the stock market index in all studied countries except Iran. This suggests that rising oil prices generally lead to a rise in the stock market value of these countries. The impact of other commodities, however, varies across the selected countries. Interestingly, the study identifies oil as the most influential commodity affecting their stock markets. These findings highlight the critical importance of understanding the dynamics between commodity prices and stock market returns for both investors and policymakers in commodity-exporting countries. With this knowledge, investors can make informed decisions, while policymakers can develop strategies to enhance the resilience of their stock markets in the face of commodity price fluctuations.
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