Mohammad Mahdi Najafi; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase ...
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Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase in the high inflation rate is associated with macroeconomic instability, increased welfare, unfair distribution of wealth, and a decrease in household purchasing power. Monetarist considers excessive growth of money volume, excess demand in the commodity market, some cost pressure and increase in the price of production inputs, and institutionalists consider structural factors and bottlenecks in various economic and commercial sectors to be the main cause of inflation. Therefore, knowing the factors affecting inflation and providing a solution to control and reduce inflation can lead to socio-economic justice. The components of good governance can also lead to the reduction of inflation through the channel of increasing productivity and improving institutional quality and increasing the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. This research aims to investigate the factors influencing inflation with an emphasis on good governance in oil exporting countries using the generalized moment method (GMM) in the time period (2011-2021). The obtained results indicate that the inflation break, the difference between GDP growth and liquidity growth had a positive effect and good governance had a negative effect on the inflation rate.
EZATOLLAH TAYEBI; Teymur Mohammadi; morteza khorsandi; abdorasol ghasemi; mohammad sayadi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation ...
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The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
Farshad Momeni
Abstract
Oil and gas are exhaustible resources and maximizing national benefits in exploiting these resources is very important. In this regard and according to the general policies of the resistance economy of Iran, which emphasizes the endogenous and externally oriented economy, the purpose of internationalization ...
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Oil and gas are exhaustible resources and maximizing national benefits in exploiting these resources is very important. In this regard and according to the general policies of the resistance economy of Iran, which emphasizes the endogenous and externally oriented economy, the purpose of internationalization of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has been followed in this paper, which makes it an inclusive institution, optimal allocation of oil dollars also maximizes the intergeneration benefits. This purpose was followed by a historical and social analysis and historical review of rules and contracts of Iran’s oil upstream. by Williamson’s four-level theory, Ostrom's institutional framework and North’s social orders. The participants and institutional environment of the Iran oil upstream were analyzed. Internationalization has never been in the description of the duties of the NIOC, . In order to succeed in the internationalization of the NIOC, it should be focused on the aspect of techno - ware of the Iran's oil upstream, as well as the need for the convergence and support of the government with this purpose and governance reform of Iran oil upstream according to the current conditions of the country's reservoirs and the ability to carry out successful oil operations inside and outside the borders of the country. The first step to build an inclusive institution in the upstream sector of Iranian oil is to convince the extractive institutions benefiting from oil rents that such institutional changes will not reduce their benefits from rents.
Abbas Memarnejad; sheyda Nematollahi Sarvestani; Teimor Mohammadi
Abstract
The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase ...
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The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase from January 2026. Some countries, including the United States of America and Japan, have also predicted similar policies. This is while developing and developed countries have committed to take measures to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions based on the Paris Agreement. This shows the concern of countries applying carbon tariffs because of carbon leakage even after the creation of the Paris Agreement. Considering that the European Union has announced that it will first apply carbon tariffs to energy industries, this study uses the GTAP-E model to investigate the change in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's industries as a result of the imposing of carbon tariffs by the European Union, the Japan, the United States of America and all regions on Iran's energy intensive industries. The statistical of the research includes 141 regions and 65 section in the GTAP10 data base that published in 2019. The estimation of the model shows that under all four scenarios, the amount of production and carbon dioxide emissions will decrease in the energy-intensive industries sector and the entire industries of Iran.
Alireza Taghipour; Mohammad mahdi Hajian; Garshasb Khazaeni; Javad Kashani; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
With the change in policy by the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum in 2017 to outsource the operation and maintenance of oil and gas units to the private sector, the O&M outsourcing contract framework has drawn more attention than ever.This study first explores the current state of O&M contracts, ...
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With the change in policy by the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum in 2017 to outsource the operation and maintenance of oil and gas units to the private sector, the O&M outsourcing contract framework has drawn more attention than ever.This study first explores the current state of O&M contracts, in conjunction with the laws and regulations, and wraps up that the Ministry of Petroleum has an inherent duty to comprehensively outsourcing these operations to the private sector. The next step points out that the vast majority of Operation contracts, which are always claimed as O&M contracts, are basically manpower contracts.The next step is to categorise these contracts into two categories: independent and integrated. This study divided independent categories into seven categories: manpower, inspection, packaging, KPI packaging, hybrid, and full coverage. In opposed to the current method of making independent O&M contracts in the oil and gas industry, the results showed that optimal O&M outsourcing takes place through integrated contracts in which the operation is a partial part of that contract.Furthermore, a review of the framework of integrated upstream contracts, particularly the Iranian Upstream Petroleum Contract (IPC), and some types of integrated downstream contracts, such as the EPC+O&M and the FIDIC DBO model, conclusively demonstrates that "Build Operation and Transfer" and "Rehabilitate, Operate, Transfer" contracts are one of the most effective methods of outsourcing these operations.
Majid Aghaei
Abstract
One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level ...
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One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level in different countries. Given the importance of this topic, this study seeks to investigate the influence of financial development on the development of renewable energy technologies in two distinct groups of rich in natural resources countries, characterized by differing levels of financial system development (20 developed resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems, and 25 developing resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems). The examination and empirical testing of this relationship, along with its contributing factors, have been conducted using the Two-Stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimators by Arellano and Bond, and Blundell and Bond, over the period from 2000 to 2021. Based on the results, financial development has demonstrated a positive impact on the deployment of renewable energy technologies across all studied countries, underscoring the undeniable role of financial development in renewable energy development. Furthermore, according to the research findings, the abundance of natural resources in resource-rich developed countries has not only led to a reduction in the capacity of renewable energy technologies installation but also has facilitated the deployment of renewable energy technologies, especially in resource-rich developed countries with advanced financial markets.
Fariborz PARTOVIRAD; Teimor Mohammadi; abbas shkeri; morteza khorsandi
Abstract
Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the ...
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Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the prospects of changes in the Iran's electric energy system in the medium and long term. By using new approaches, this prediction will have higher reliability. In this research, using the state-space approach and combining it with Markov regime switching, the main sources of uncertainties were included in the model. By using the data of electric energy feed-in the system to supply electricity demand and the average real price of electricity and temperature and the number of customers in the ten-year period of 2013-2022, the parameters of the model were estimated based on the state-space approach and Markov regime switching. State-space approach in the form of time-varying parameters and Markov switching approach in the form of variance fluctuations were included in the model. The results showed that the model based on this integrated approach gives a more accurate prediction than the classical model of electricity demand. The standard error of the estimated equations is reduced to 0.1 (in the competing model, the standard error of the corresponding equation is 0.03, and in the integrated approach, it is 0.002 for peak and 0.004 off-peak periods). The sensitivity of electricity demand to the real price of electricity and temperature changes is decreasing and the demand for marginal costumer is increasing.
Hamid Amadeh; mohamad Hasani
Abstract
The growing natural gas consumption has made it difficult to supply gas to power plants and large industries in the cold seasons and forces these industries to use polluting fuels. One of the consequences of this situation is air pollution. Due to the inelastic demand of natural gas, command policies ...
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The growing natural gas consumption has made it difficult to supply gas to power plants and large industries in the cold seasons and forces these industries to use polluting fuels. One of the consequences of this situation is air pollution. Due to the inelastic demand of natural gas, command policies cannot prevent the increasing trend of gas consumption. So it is necessary to use incentive policies to manage consumption. Recently, in developed countries, regulatory instruments based on exchange of certificates, such as tradable savings certificates based on the market, have been significantly developed and had positive results. Considering the importance of gas consumption management and with the aim of creating a mechanism for certificates of natural gas exchange, in this research, based on the experiences of the leading countries in this field and the results of consensus of the elites, design a mechanism for the exchange of consumption savings certificates of natural gas. The results of Delphi analysis showed that the mechanism of issuing and exchanging natural gas saving certificates is feasible and this mechanism makes households and business units find motivation to save natural gas consumption. Also, power plants and other large industries can fulfill part of their natural gas needs in the cold season by buying certificates from households in the established market, and in this way they can access clean fuel in the cold seasons of the year.
Hamid Amadeh; Alireza Moghaddam; Morteza Khorsandi
Abstract
This study examined the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion of environmental quality in seven OPEC member countries from 1990 until 2019. According to the theoretical framework, economic policy uncertainty can directly or indirectly affect the ...
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This study examined the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion of environmental quality in seven OPEC member countries from 1990 until 2019. According to the theoretical framework, economic policy uncertainty can directly or indirectly affect the quality of the environment, such as through direct policy adjustment, consumption, and investment channels. In this regard, with the help of panel data, the experimental models of this study were estimated and evaluated by the Fully-modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The results indicate that the economic policy uncertainty and the oil price variables are statistically significant in both models, and their coefficient is positive. In other words, higher policy-related economic uncertainty and oil price over this period has led to higher carbon dioxide emissions and, thus, lower environmental quality in OPEC member countries. Ultimately, the estimates in the second model confirm an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and the quality of the environment of these countries in the mentioned period, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis.
Teimor Mohammadi; Azam Abbas Mohsen
Abstract
Energy is a fundamental input in production, and its availability and use are essential for the social, economic, and technological advancement of a nation. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing along with rising production, primarily sourced from non-renewable resources. ...
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Energy is a fundamental input in production, and its availability and use are essential for the social, economic, and technological advancement of a nation. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing along with rising production, primarily sourced from non-renewable resources. The increase in production and economic development has led to higher greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in climate change, which poses a new challenge for countries. Energy efficiency is the most beneficial way to reduce greenhouse gases and control energy supply. In this regard, one of the responsibilities of governments is to find tools to minimize the national economy's energy efficiency gap by increasing energy efficiency within the economy.For this purpose, in this study, we used the Shephard energy distance function to define the energy efficiency index and the stochastic frontier analysis technique to estimate the energy efficiency gap in selected oil and gas producing countries from 1990 to 2022. We examined some factors influencing the energy efficiency gap and observed that the energy efficiency gap increased from 6% to 29% during the years under review. Additionally, foreign direct investment and total factor productivity have a negative impact, while urbanization has a positive impact on the energy efficiency gap.
parisa Mohajeri; reza taleblou; samaneh ranjkhah zenuzghi
Abstract
This study employs a vector autoregression approach with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to investigate the spillover of volatility and risk among the stock markets of 13 OPEC and OPEC+ member countries, alongside Gold, Brent Oil, OPEC Oil, and the Dollar index. Daily data spanning from March 1, 2014, ...
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This study employs a vector autoregression approach with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to investigate the spillover of volatility and risk among the stock markets of 13 OPEC and OPEC+ member countries, alongside Gold, Brent Oil, OPEC Oil, and the Dollar index. Daily data spanning from March 1, 2014, to March 1, 2023, is utilized for analysis. Our findings reveal several key insights. First, the average systemic risk within the network of investigated variables has escalated in the years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, among the investigated countries, the stock markets of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Russia, Malaysia, and Nigeria serve as transmitters of fluctuations within the network, while the stock markets of Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Oman, Iran, Iraq, and Mexico act as receivers of volatilities. Third, significant volatilities in Iran's stock market returns originate from idiosyncratic shocks, with variables such as OPEC oil prices and the stock markets of Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait playing pivotal roles in explaining these fluctuations. Fourth, approximately 60% of the volatility in gold returns and the dollar index can be attributed to idiosyncratic risks. Fifth, compared to other OPEC+ member countries, the Saudi stock market's volatility exerts a more substantial influence on the volatilities observed in the global oil, gold, and dollar markets.
Ali Homayoun; Mohammad Qezelbash; mohammad tohidi
Abstract
it is of strategic importance to investigate the methods of financing the establishment of petroleum refinery units. Meanwhile, economic sanctions have seriously affected the access to financing methods, especially the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects. For this purpose, this research ...
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it is of strategic importance to investigate the methods of financing the establishment of petroleum refinery units. Meanwhile, economic sanctions have seriously affected the access to financing methods, especially the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects. For this purpose, this research has identified and ranked the financing methods of petroleum refinery projects according to the current conditions of the country's economic system. In order to identify the types of financing methods for petroleum refinery projects, all available library documents such as books, articles and related research reports were studied. In the next step, with the aim of firstly ensuring the statistics of all methods and secondly extracting the criteria for prioritizing financing methods, interviews were conducted with financing experts in the refinery and petrochemical industry, and the findings were analyzed using thematic analysis method. In the following, after the initial review and refinement of financing methods by the focal group, a questionnaire for prioritizing financing methods was compiled and provided to the experts. Examining the results of prioritization showed that joint venture (JV), build, operate and transfer (BOT), build, lease and transfer (BLT), lines of credit, engineering, procurement, construction and finance (EPCF), exchange of oil and oil products with other goods and equipment and even the project, participation in the net profit (Net Profit Interest) and pre-sale agreements (Off-Take Agreement), eight "main and priority methods", for the financing of suitable petrochemical projects in the current coordinates of Iran's economy
Raheleh Shojaei; Farzaneh Khalili; Ali Emami Meibodi; Ali Nazari
Abstract
Finding effective factors on productivity for its impact on economic growth and development is essential for societies, especially countries that are in the process of development. By examining new researches and analyzing the economic conditions and problems of developing countries, we find the importance ...
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Finding effective factors on productivity for its impact on economic growth and development is essential for societies, especially countries that are in the process of development. By examining new researches and analyzing the economic conditions and problems of developing countries, we find the importance of the factor of energy consumption, especially non-renewable energies such as oil consumption, and the question of whether more energy (oil) consumption will lead the country towards productivity improvement is crucial for developing a development plan and roadmap. The study investigates the effect of energy consumption (oil) on total factor productivity using the Cobb-Douglas production function and solo growth model, for 10 developing countries including Iran, based on the Human Development Index from1996 to 2022. In this research, using panel data, first through the primary model, which is the generalized Cobb-Douglas function linear model, the total factor productivity was calculated, and then through the secondary model, including the total factor productivity variable, the research hypothesis was investigated. The results showed that the effect of energy consumption on total factor productivity (TFP) in selected developed countries is negative and meaningless and the effect of urbanization is negative and significant. Also, the effect of energy consumption and urbanization on the productivity of all factors in emerging and developing countries is negative and significant. The desirability of the Watson-R camera statistic and the significance of the overall regression were reviewed and confirmed in each group.
Sara Keshkar; Gholam Ali Kargar; Amir Ansari Ardali
Abstract
This qualitative study investigated the impact of utilizing renewable energy sources in football stadiums. The research focused on experts in sustainable development, stadium managers, and technical engineers involved in the Iranian Football Premier League from 2019 to 2020. Data analysis was conducted ...
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This qualitative study investigated the impact of utilizing renewable energy sources in football stadiums. The research focused on experts in sustainable development, stadium managers, and technical engineers involved in the Iranian Football Premier League from 2019 to 2020. Data analysis was conducted using qualitative content analysis methods. Research participants were selected through purposeful and snowball sampling methods, ultimately leading to 12 interviews that reached theoretical saturation. The analysis resulted in 44 open codes, which were further categorized into three key concepts: environmental management, improving the social and cultural situation, and enhancing the economic status. These categories encompassed areas such as reducing environmental risks, managing energy resources and pollution, improving social attitudes and welfare services, urban beautification, reducing organizational costs, promoting the stadium's brand, and generating income. Given global environmental crises and the impact of sports on the environment, it is recommended that government officials, policymakers, and sports managers support the utilization of renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy in football stadiums. These actions are necessary for sustainable development and carbon-free sports.
Mohammad Rahim Soltani; Mohammad Ali Afsharkazemi; Reza Radfar
Abstract
It is a necessity to use more renewable resources to produce clean energy. The purpose of this research is to design a biomass supply chain network model. It is three-level with two minimization functions in economic and bio-environmental costs. The main research gap solved in this study is the resilience ...
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It is a necessity to use more renewable resources to produce clean energy. The purpose of this research is to design a biomass supply chain network model. It is three-level with two minimization functions in economic and bio-environmental costs. The main research gap solved in this study is the resilience of the model, which examines the disruption in the supply of raw materials with a scenario approach. The mathematical model of the research is mixed integer linear programming. To single-target the function, under uncertainty, the fuzzy TH mathematical model has been used and the validation of the model has been investigated in a real case study in Tehran province. According to the findings from the output of GEMS software, which shows the optimal economic cost equal to 791354423200 Tomans and the emission of 1420469 grams of carbon dioxide per year, the optimal mode of construction of 4 power plants in the cities of Pakdasht, Qarchak, Parand and Mallard has been proposed. The sensitivity analysis on the parameters of the TH method and on the change of biomass supply values met the expectations. As a result, the proposed model has the necessary efficiency and has been able to be optimal in terms of cost and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by combining economic and environmental approaches. Therefore, the model has the necessary resilience.
pouyan kiani; Kioumars Heydari; Maryam Nafisi Moghadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the price elasticity of household and non-household electricity demand across 31 provinces of Iran from 2011 to 2021. Due to the skewness of the dependent variable, the panel quantile regression method was chosen. The results show that the price elasticity ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the price elasticity of household and non-household electricity demand across 31 provinces of Iran from 2011 to 2021. Due to the skewness of the dependent variable, the panel quantile regression method was chosen. The results show that the price elasticity of household electricity demand ranges of -0.069 to -0.115. The price elasticity demand of non-household ranges from -0.021 to -0.043. It reveals that price elasticities are less than one for both groups. According to the results, electricity is an inelastic good in Iran. Also, the elasticity of electricity demand is higher for households than for non-household. Moreover, the results show that an increas in the price of natural gas, which is the closest substitute for electricity, has had a negligible impact on the electricity demand of the household and non-household sectors. Among other model results, we can mention the incredible influence of demand habits on household and non-household electricity demand.
Armin Sharifi; fateh habibi; bakhtiar Javaheri
Abstract
The literature has studied various factors affecting income inequality and the influence of energy security on the economy, while knowledge is rather limited regarding the linkage between energy security and income inequality. Therefore, in addition to conventional economic and financial aspects, the ...
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The literature has studied various factors affecting income inequality and the influence of energy security on the economy, while knowledge is rather limited regarding the linkage between energy security and income inequality. Therefore, in addition to conventional economic and financial aspects, the energy landscape requires a deeper examination of how energy market activities affect income inequality. The contributions of the current study can be summarized as follows: First, we fill the gap in the literature by examining the influence of energy security on income inequality. Second, unlike previous works, we delve into the non-linear impact of energy security on income inequality. Third, we employ a new DPT model to find the threshold variables. In current study, the effect of energy security in four dimensions (availability, accessibility, development capability and acceptability) on income inequality in Middle Eastern countries has been investigated. To achieve this goal, threshold panel regression and data from the period 2000-2021 have been used. The results show that among the four dimensions of energy security, only the acceptability dimension has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, and other energy dimensions do not have a significant effect on income inequality. The threshold level for the Middle East countries is calculated at 42032 dollars per capita. Therefore, governments should focus more on improving the efficiency of energy use. This not only helps to reduce the income gap, but also increases energy security optimally.
fatemeh rastehmoghaddam; mohammad nabi shahiki tash; Emad kazemzadeh
Abstract
Air pollution has been introduced as one of the important issues and concerns of today's human societies. Its impact on the economy and human health is very important and necessary. Epidemiological research shows that air pollutants can lead to cardiovascular diseases and ultimately heart attacks. ...
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Air pollution has been introduced as one of the important issues and concerns of today's human societies. Its impact on the economy and human health is very important and necessary. Epidemiological research shows that air pollutants can lead to cardiovascular diseases and ultimately heart attacks. The current research focuses on the principle that the use of renewable energy sources can help improve air quality and mortality caused by air pollution. In this research, the quantile regression method has been used for the data of RCEP member countries in the period from 2018 to 1996. The results show that in all quantiles, renewable energy is significant and negative, which can finally be concluded that the use of renewable energy in the management of air pollutants helps to reduce mortality and improve air quality. The results also show that an increase in GDP can lead to a decrease in deaths caused by air pollution; While the emission of CO2 and the rate of urbanization increases the mortality caused by air pollution.
zahra sattarinasab; Abdolrasool Ghasemi; mahdi bahrololoum
Abstract
Abstract:
Due to current sanctions, financing upstream oil industry projects faces significant challenges. To design an effective financing portfolio for these projects, we first identified financing criteria through a literature review. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, we screened and determined six ...
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Abstract:
Due to current sanctions, financing upstream oil industry projects faces significant challenges. To design an effective financing portfolio for these projects, we first identified financing criteria through a literature review. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, we screened and determined six main criteria. The fuzzy DEMATEL technique revealed that among these criteria, repayment structure constraints, currency exchange rate fluctuation risk, external monitoring factors (cause type), and The financing cost factors, the time required to acquire financial resources, and the risk of failing to obtain financial resources are of the effect (dependent) type. Additionally, the time required to acquire financial resources has a greater weight compared to other criteria. Considering the weighted criteria the fuzzy TOPSIS technique showed that issuing forward contracts had the highest priority, while obtaining international bank loans had the lowest priority. The study involved 12 experts from the oil industry and the banking and capital markets, who provided responses to structured questionnaires.
Zahra Farshadfar; Sajad Piri
Abstract
High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability ...
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High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability to predict crude oil prices using non-linear patterns by artificial intelligence. For this purpose, four artificial intelligence networks MLP, RNN, LSTM 3366and GRU have been used and their capabilities compared to each other and the benchmark model, besides their prediction accuracy have been evaluated using the mean squared error method. The studied sample is North Sea Brent crude oil data from Aug 1st 2007 to May 31st 2024 on a daily, monthly and yearly basis.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models have several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone. Also, among the selected non-linear models, GRU has more accurate predictions with less error in different frequencies and in a shorter time.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models has several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone.
Teimor Mohammadi; Azam Abbas Mohsen; Ali Emami Meibodi
Abstract
In recent decades, the role of energy as one of the main factors of economic development and social progress has increased dramatically. distribution and consumption. But these abundant energy resources are faced with challenges and problems such as efficiency gaps in energy consumption. One of the ...
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In recent decades, the role of energy as one of the main factors of economic development and social progress has increased dramatically. distribution and consumption. But these abundant energy resources are faced with challenges and problems such as efficiency gaps in energy consumption. One of the effective factors in the energy efficiency gap is the country's financial system. the financial system can have a significant impact on improving or weakening energy efficiency. The performance of the financial system, on the one hand, has increased energy consumption, which leads to a decrease in energy efficiency, and on the other hand, it improves technology and increases the level of energy efficiency. Therefore, the analysis of the effects of the financial system on the energy efficiency gap can be considered as one of the important issues in the direction of energy policies in Iran.
In this study, the functioning of the financial system on the energy efficiency gap in Iran in the period of 1990-2023 is investigated. First, the energy efficiency gap is estimated using Shepard's energy gap function and stochastic frontier analysis, and then we investigate the effects of financial systems on the energy efficiency gap in those years with the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) technique. The findings indicate that the banking system in the upper regime and the insurance system in the lower regime are effective in reducing the energy efficiency gap in Iran. The capital market in both regimes increases the energy efficiency gap.
Mahnaz Rezazadeh; saeed Daei-Karimzadeh; Shahram Moeeni
Abstract
Energy security and environmental sustainability have been identified as key economic challenges in recent years. Most countries have shown a strong interest in achieving significant economic development through the development of exports and its diversification, and gradually the share of innovative ...
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Energy security and environmental sustainability have been identified as key economic challenges in recent years. Most countries have shown a strong interest in achieving significant economic development through the development of exports and its diversification, and gradually the share of innovative produced goods and services in total exports surpassed traditional exports. This change in the export pattern may change energy needs because the energy needed to produce new and industrial products (such as spacecraft, electrical equipment, telecommunication equipment, and..) is relatively higher. The exports diversification is a trade indicator and can play a role in encouraging the consumption of renewable energy. in this paper, the impact of diversification export, extensive export margin and intensive export margin as determinants of renewable energies, using the CS-ARDL model in countries with natural resource rents during the period of 2000-2020 has been investigated. The results of the study in the estimation of the first model show that the increase in export diversification has a positive effect on the consumption of clean energy, and the increased export diversification generally increases the consumption of these energies. Also, the estimation results of the second model indicate that the extensive export margin, which emphasizes the export of new products, has a positive and significant effect on the ratio of clean energy consumption, but the intensive export margin, which emphasizes the development of traditional trade, has a negative significant effect It has a ratio of clean energy consumption.
Ashkan Rahimzadeh
Abstract
The main goal of the research is to investigate the impact of various factors on energy intensity with emphasis on economic complexity and mutual relationship between financial risk and financial development. The statistical data used in this research are from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), ...
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The main goal of the research is to investigate the impact of various factors on energy intensity with emphasis on economic complexity and mutual relationship between financial risk and financial development. The statistical data used in this research are from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), World Bank, energy balance and MIT University website during the years 2000-2022. In order to estimate the target model, the Auto Regressive distributed Lags approach (ARDL approach) has been used in the framework of short-term dynamic model, long-term relationships and error correction model. ARDL model (1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) was selected with one interval for energy intensity variable and zero interval for all independent variables based on Schwartz-Bayesian criterion. The results of the ARDL dynamic model in the short-term and long-term show: the effect of energy price and capital per capita on energy intensity is indirect. The effect of variables of economic complexity, trade liberalization, urbanization rate and internet users on energy intensity in the short and long term is direct. Despite its statistical significance, the coefficients of domestic investment and labor force are very small and close to zero. The mutual effects of financial risk and financial development, as well as the foreign direct investment variable, did not have a significant effect on energy intensity in both time periods.
Abouzar Fattahizadeh; Shirin Andarkhord
Abstract
Renewable energies are gradually replacing fossil fuels as the primary sources of energy. The transition from non-renewable resources to renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc., has significantly transformed productive, commercial, and financial aspects of the international ...
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Renewable energies are gradually replacing fossil fuels as the primary sources of energy. The transition from non-renewable resources to renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc., has significantly transformed productive, commercial, and financial aspects of the international energy market. This transformation, in turn, has created new challenges and opportunities for energy security of states. Iran, as a major producer of fossil fuels and energy consumer, is also grappling with these challenges and opportunities. Here we aim to answer the question that what strategies and policies Iran has adopted in the field of renewable energies to ensure its future energy security? In other words, what role and position does Iran envisioned for renewable energies in its future energy security? In response to this question, first fourteen indicators for assessing energy security were identified. Then, we figured out the threats and opportunities arising from the mentioned transition in each of these indicators. Next, we demonstrated which of these threats and opportunities Iran has faced or will face and to what extent it has addressed them in its overarching policies and high-level documents. The research findings indicate that Iran has paid the most attention to the price and energy consumption intensity indicators, while neglecting political stability and acceptability, and to some extent, the production continuity indicators. We have employed the rational-conceptual modeling approach here.
mohammad sadegh adibian; taghi ebrahimi salari; hadi esmaeilpour moghadam
Abstract
Uncertainties are an intrinsic element of economic systems, exerting substantial and complex effects on various economic structures. Oil prices, in addition to being a crucial factor in production, are also a key indicator of oil revenues within Iran's economy. This study investigates the impacts ...
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Uncertainties are an intrinsic element of economic systems, exerting substantial and complex effects on various economic structures. Oil prices, in addition to being a crucial factor in production, are also a key indicator of oil revenues within Iran's economy. This study investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty, originating globally as well as from China, the United States, and Russia, on Iran’s crude oil prices. The analysis is conducted using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with monthly data from 1997 to 2022. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty at the global level, as well as that originating from China and Russia, has a significant and nonlinear effect on Iran’s crude oil prices. Similarly, geopolitical uncertainty originating globally, from China, and from Russia has a direct and nonlinear influence. In contrast, geopolitical uncertainty from the United States shows a linear and inverse relationship with Iran’s crude oil prices. Moreover, the study explores the effects of concurrent uncertainties from the same source, revealing that simultaneous uncertainties originating globally, from Russia, and from the United States, have substantial and nonlinear impacts on Iran’s crude oil prices. These findings highlight the importance of employing advanced models capable of accounting for the joint effects and interactions of multiple variables. The insights provided by this research are valuable for stakeholders in oil markets and policymakers involved in managing the complexities of financial and geopolitical dynamics.
reza taleblou; parisa Mohajeri
Abstract
This study investigates the application of recurrent neural network (RNN) models—specifically RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU)—in predicting the stock indices of the Iranian energy industry. Using daily time series data from May 1, 2020, to May 1, 2024, the ...
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This study investigates the application of recurrent neural network (RNN) models—specifically RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU)—in predicting the stock indices of the Iranian energy industry. Using daily time series data from May 1, 2020, to May 1, 2024, the dataset was divided into a training period (80%) and a testing period (20%). In the first step, the optimal architectures of each model (estimating hyper-parameters) were determined for prediction horizons of 1, 2, 5 (one week), and 20 trading days (one month). Subsequently, prediction errors of the three machine learning models were compared with the linear econometric model (ARIMA) across various forecast horizons. The findings in two areas of cross validations of machine learning models as well as predication error reveal the following insights: First, as the forecast horizon increases, the batch size of optimal prediction decreases for all three machine learning models, and the larger the input training sample size leads to the smaller batch size. Second, in short-term forecast horizons (1, 2, and 5 trading days), machine learning models—particularly LSTM—demonstrate lower prediction errors than ARIMA, while in the 20-trading-day (1-month) forecast horizon, ARIMA's predictive accuracy approaches to the nonlinear machine learning models. Third, forecast accuracy decreases as the horizon lengthens, with accuracy dropping from approximately 98.5% (for a 1-day horizon) to 92.5% (for a 20-day horizon). Finally, selecting the appropriate forecasting method for the stock market indices of energy industries depends on the forecast horizon and data characteristics.
masoud fazlalipoour; parviz nasiri
Abstract
It is of particular importance to examine statistical models for fitting time series data and provide a suitable model and predict important elements in macroeconomic and financial planning. One of these time series models that is widely used in the analysis of economic, meteorological, geographical ...
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It is of particular importance to examine statistical models for fitting time series data and provide a suitable model and predict important elements in macroeconomic and financial planning. One of these time series models that is widely used in the analysis of economic, meteorological, geographical and financial data is the ARFIMA model. In this model and other time series models, the parameters of the model are estimated by assuming that the error term has a normal distribution. In this article, while examining the behavior of the ARFIMA model, the Bayesian estimation of the fractional difference parameter is estimated by considering the appropriate prior distribution for it. Then, using oil export data, the deficit difference parameter of the ARFIMA model is estimated by considering the appropriate prior distribution. Finally, the goodness of fit of the ARFIMA model is compared with the models that are introduced through the RMSE criteria and it is shown that the model estimated by the Bayesian method has a better performance.
Soudabeh Rafiei; seyedmohamadreza seyednourani; Teimor Mohammadi
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the progress of fuel subsidies as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of the possible removal of such subsidies in Iran. In this research, the analysis of the machine learning scenario model, the microsimulation model of the tax benefit for Iran, ...
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The purpose of this article is to evaluate the progress of fuel subsidies as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of the possible removal of such subsidies in Iran. In this research, the analysis of the machine learning scenario model, the microsimulation model of the tax benefit for Iran, along with the consumption and subsidy microdata of households since the subsidy reform has been used. The results of the research show that the subsidy for consumption is advanced towards an increase, while the subsidy for gasoline and diesel tends to decrease. The paper's simulations show that removing all fuel subsidies would increase poverty and inequality due to the importance of the domestic gas subsidy to low-income households. Eliminating gasoline and diesel subsidies will not affect poverty and inequality, while helping to reduce government spending. It was also shown that using part of the budget saved from fuel subsidy removal to increase social assistance payments in Iran can be a mechanism to compensate low-income families after fuel subsidy removal.
mirhossain mousavi; niloofar nori
Abstract
Energy is one of the most essential and vital goods in the household consumption basket. Access to energy for meeting basic needs is a fundamental right of every consumer. However, due to the occurrence of the energy imbalance phenomenon in Iran's economy, this access has become limited in recent years. ...
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Energy is one of the most essential and vital goods in the household consumption basket. Access to energy for meeting basic needs is a fundamental right of every consumer. However, due to the occurrence of the energy imbalance phenomenon in Iran's economy, this access has become limited in recent years. In light of this issue, the aim of this paper is to determine the minimum subsistence level of energy consumption for Iranian households. To achieve this, data on household income and expenditure from 1991 to 2022 were used, categorized into five groups: food, clothing, housing, energy, and others. The Linear Expenditure System (LES) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) method were employed to estimate the expenditure function and determine the necessary costs for meeting the minimum subsistence level. The results reveal that the highest marginal propensity to non-subsistence expenditure belongs to the food group, accounting for approximately 40%, while the lowest marginal propensity is observed in the energy group, at about 6%. In the energy category, the average expenditure required to meet the minimum subsistence level increased from 176,000 IRR in 1991 to 87,472,600 IRR in 2022. In other words, the expenditure required for energy to meet minimum subsistence needs grew approximately 497-fold during this period.
Mohamad Reza Salmani Bishak; pegah gorbanpour
Abstract
Renewable energy is a crucial alternative energy source in terms of sustainable growth and climate change. This paper analyzes the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 26 developing countries over the period 1990–2020. The study employs the bootstrap panel ...
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Renewable energy is a crucial alternative energy source in terms of sustainable growth and climate change. This paper analyzes the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 26 developing countries over the period 1990–2020. The study employs the bootstrap panel causality test developed by Konya (2006) to account for cross-sectional dependence. Konya’s (2006) method is based on seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values.The results indicate that the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth varies across the examined countries, manifesting both symmetric and asymmetric patterns depending on each country's specific conditions. In some countries, evidence of bidirectional causality between these two variables was observed, while in others, a unidirectional causal relationship was confirmed, either from renewable energy consumption to economic growth or vice versa. Moreover, the findings reveal that relying on aggregated data could alter the conclusions, highlighting the necessity of conducting causality analysis at the country level. These findings emphasize the impact of renewable energy policies on the economic growth of developing countries and provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating sustainable energy strategies.
Seyyed Mohammad Ghaem Zabihi; Fatemeh Akbari; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
The current research seeks to investigate the effects of fintech and the quality of governance on the transition of green energy in the Group of 7 (G7) countries in the annual period from 2000 to 2021, with the help of panel quantile regression. The experimental results confirm that the fintech index ...
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The current research seeks to investigate the effects of fintech and the quality of governance on the transition of green energy in the Group of 7 (G7) countries in the annual period from 2000 to 2021, with the help of panel quantile regression. The experimental results confirm that the fintech index (FIN) positively and significantly affects the logarithm of transition to green energy in all deciles. Also, the quality of governance (GOV) in all deciles positively affects the logarithm of the transition to green energy, and the first, eighth, and ninth deciles have statistical significance. The logarithm of urbanization (LURB) negatively and significantly affects the logarithm of transition to green energy in all deciles. The logarithm of foreign direct investment (LFDI) up to the fifth decile has a negative effect on the logarithm of transition to green energy, and only the first and second deciles have statistical significance. The logarithm of gross domestic product per capita (LGDP) in all deciles has a positive effect on the logarithm of transition to green energy, and except for the sixth, eighth, and ninth deciles, the rest have statistical significance. Also, the variables of urbanization, foreign direct investment, and GDP per capita (through increasing demand for fintech services due to the increase in the population of cities and economic growth and helping to develop fintech infrastructure by attracting foreign investment) have a positive relationship with fintech indicators and the quality of governance.
davood ghobadi; bita tabrizian; Saber Khandan Alamdari
Abstract
This research aimed to design a conceptual model for enhancing innovation capacity in EPC companies, based on Strauss and Corbin’s (1989) method. The study was conducted using a qualitative approach and grounded theory. Through purposeful sampling and semi-structured interviews, theoretical saturation ...
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This research aimed to design a conceptual model for enhancing innovation capacity in EPC companies, based on Strauss and Corbin’s (1989) method. The study was conducted using a qualitative approach and grounded theory. Through purposeful sampling and semi-structured interviews, theoretical saturation was achieved after the 17th interview. The statistical population of this research included managers active in the field of innovation in EPC companies. To ensure the quality of the results, three criteria—credibility, confirmability, and reliability—were used, and the findings were presented to experts for validation and were approved. The research findings indicate that innovation capacity can be divided into six categories: incremental innovation, radical innovation, market innovation, process innovation, technological innovation, and business innovation. By viewing each of these capabilities as opportunities, and with appropriate planning and solutions, the foundation for enhancing innovation capacity can be established
Ali Rauf Kazem Jwad Al-Rikabi; Maryam Emamimibody
Abstract
In the process of globalization, the interdependence between countries increases, and changes in economic policies introduce uncertainty shocks to both domestic and foreign economies. In oil-dependent countries, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact income and Gross Domestic Product ...
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In the process of globalization, the interdependence between countries increases, and changes in economic policies introduce uncertainty shocks to both domestic and foreign economies. In oil-dependent countries, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study examines the impact of uncertainty in global economic policies and oil prices on Iraq's economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The research employs the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric model. The results indicate that an increase in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to a decrease in Iraq's economic growth in the short term, with this effect persisting in the long term. Conversely, a reduction in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to an increase in Iraq's economic growth over both timeframes. Regarding oil prices, a reduction in uncertainty in the short term (at the first lag) fosters economic growth; however, at the second lag, it has a negative impact. In the long term, a decrease in oil price uncertainty contributes to an increase in economic growth. An increase in oil price uncertainty does not significantly affect economic growth in the short term; however, in the long term, it leads to a decline in Iraq's economic growth. These findings highlight the asymmetry in the effects of economic policies and oil prices on Iraq’s economic growth.
amirreza sabri; hadi esmaeilpour moghadam; Mohammad Ali Falahi
Abstract
Commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil prices, significantly impact the stock markets of commodity-exporting countries. This study investigates the relationship between commodity price changes and stock market returns in selected commodity-oriented countries. The analysis, conducted using the ...
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Commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil prices, significantly impact the stock markets of commodity-exporting countries. This study investigates the relationship between commodity price changes and stock market returns in selected commodity-oriented countries. The analysis, conducted using the ARDL approach over the period January 2, 2001, to February 16, 2023, reveals that in the long run, oil price changes have a direct and significant positive relationship with the stock market index in all studied countries except Iran. This suggests that rising oil prices generally lead to a rise in the stock market value of these countries. The impact of other commodities, however, varies across the selected countries. Interestingly, the study identifies oil as the most influential commodity affecting their stock markets. These findings highlight the critical importance of understanding the dynamics between commodity prices and stock market returns for both investors and policymakers in commodity-exporting countries. With this knowledge, investors can make informed decisions, while policymakers can develop strategies to enhance the resilience of their stock markets in the face of commodity price fluctuations.
Mohammad Mousazadeh; Seyed Ali Tohidi; Majid Mirzaei Ghazani; Nasser Safaie
Abstract
With the increase in electricity consumption in the country over the last few years, despite the strategic nature of the steel industry in the country, the supply of electricity for steel companies has faced serious problems; In this study, we have first examined the strategies for improving the quality ...
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With the increase in electricity consumption in the country over the last few years, despite the strategic nature of the steel industry in the country, the supply of electricity for steel companies has faced serious problems; In this study, we have first examined the strategies for improving the quality and increasing the production rate of Gol Gohar Steel Company through forming a SWOT matrix. Then, considering that sustainable electricity supply is identified as the key strategy to achieve this goal, using multi-criteria decision-making methods, different power plants are ranked for electricity supply of this company. For this purpose, using two main indicators of maintenance planning, i.e. reliability and availability, the options have been evaluated, and the ranking of power plants has been done using different methods: AHP, EDAS, TOPSIS, and MAUT. Also, for the weighting of criteria, two methods of forming a pairwise comparison matrix (PCM) and Shannon's method have been used. The results indicate that among the three power plants—Kahnouj, Goharan, and Samangan—the power supply from the Samangan power plant will be the most reliable for the Golgohar company. Specifically, in three out of four decision-making methods, the Samangan power plant was identified as the best option, while it ranked second in the remaining method. Additionally, the Kahnouj power plant and the Goharan power plant were identified as the second and third-best options, respectively.
Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh; Majid Aghaei; saman badbareh
Abstract
Reports from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predict that the expansion of renewable energy resources at the regional level significantly influences employment, contributing to the creation of direct, indirect, and induced jobs across various sectors. In light of this, the present study ...
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Reports from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predict that the expansion of renewable energy resources at the regional level significantly influences employment, contributing to the creation of direct, indirect, and induced jobs across various sectors. In light of this, the present study examines the impact of renewable energy development on employment in two groups of countries—developing and developed—both possessing renewable energy resources, over the period 2008 to 2022. The analysis employs the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method.The findings reveal that installed renewable energy capacity has a positive effect on employment in both country groups, contributing to increased job opportunities. Furthermore, the study identifies a positive relationship between GDP and employment in both developing and developed countries. In contrast, wages show a negative association with employment across both groups. Finally, the results indicate that gross capital formation positively affects employment in developing countries but has a negative impact in developed countries.
Amirreza khalili; Mojtaba Bahmani; Mehdi Nejati
Abstract
Today, almost 80% of the world's energy is produced from fossil fuels, which significantly release environmental pollution. Since economic growth in Iran is mostly achieved through fossil fuels, a study was conducted to explain the relationship between Iran's gross domestic product and total energy demand ...
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Today, almost 80% of the world's energy is produced from fossil fuels, which significantly release environmental pollution. Since economic growth in Iran is mostly achieved through fossil fuels, a study was conducted to explain the relationship between Iran's gross domestic product and total energy demand using the framework of the EKC, this study first highlights some points about pollution and energy consumption And then it deals with the sustainable development and EKC, in the experimental model part, ARDL model is estimated as the chosen method by conducting relevant tests, and then in the second part, using dynamic systems, the model is estimated period 2000-2045. The result indicates that Iran is in the first stage of the Kuznets curve and 59% of changes in energy demand are due to changes in GDP. For this purpose, the policy recommendation that can be considered in this article is education and public awareness of the dangers of using fossil fuels and investing in renewable systems, which on the one hand leads to economic growth and leads to the transition from the first stage of the EKC.
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