• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Mohsen Eslami; Alireza Najjarpour
Abstract
There is good reason to expect crude oil prices to follow nonlinear models. However, previous research has considered the linear assumption to investigate the existence of a unit root. Unit root linear tests such as ADF, PP and KPSS are provided for linear models. These tests are not suitable for nonlinear ...
Read More
There is good reason to expect crude oil prices to follow nonlinear models. However, previous research has considered the linear assumption to investigate the existence of a unit root. Unit root linear tests such as ADF, PP and KPSS are provided for linear models. These tests are not suitable for nonlinear time series. Because the model deviation from the linear state may be considered as a random permanent deviation. The purpose of this article is to nonlinear unit root test of crude oil prices, specifically Brent and WTI oil in the period 2019-2020 on a daily basis. For several decades now, various classes of nonlinear models have been introduced. These models introduce a wider range of dynamics than linear models in time series. A special type of these models that economists pay attention to are TAR models. In these models, as in linear models, valid statistical analysis requires distinguishing between the deterministic trend and the stochastic trend. In this study, Bayesian unit root test for the general SETAR(1) model has been used with respect to the necessary and sufficient conditions for the maintenance of SETAR processes based on the article by Petrocyl and Wolford (1984). A nonlinear unit root test was performed using Bayesian validity interval. The results show that Brent crude oil prices in both regimes contain a unit root that is consistent with similar findings for the production or consumption of crude oil.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Ali Ghadamyari; Mohammad mahdi Hajian
Abstract
The development of Underground Gas Storage (UGS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs has always been a priority for industrialized countries. This is mainly because UGS helps in balancing the seasonal supply and demand of gas, managing reservoirs efficiently over time, ensuring security of gas supply, ...
Read More
The development of Underground Gas Storage (UGS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs has always been a priority for industrialized countries. This is mainly because UGS helps in balancing the seasonal supply and demand of gas, managing reservoirs efficiently over time, ensuring security of gas supply, and fulfilling international contractual obligations. Providing a legal platform and an attractive contract model is crucial to encourage private sector participation in this strategic industry and accelerate UGS development. Concession arrangements are one of the most commonly used and attractive models for UGS development. However, the main question of this research is whether the use of concessional agreements faces any legal prohibitions. To answer this question, the legal challenges facing the application of this contractual model in the oil fields development have been investigated. In this regard, the research verifies whether this industry is upstream or downstream from the legal point of view, and considers the opinions of prominent jurists. After analyzing the unique features of the storage industry, the essential differences between UGS and the traditional development of oil fields, and especially the governmental ownership of the gas which is injected, the conclusion is that the use of concession agreements is allowed.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
parisa Mohajeri; Ali Faridzad; Fatemeh Amirjahani
Abstract
Oil and natural gas production is not uniformly and homogeneously distributed across all provinces of Iran, whereas a major part of oil and gas incomes consumes in provinces that have not any significant role in oil and gas production. Therefore, any disruption in production of oil and gas might expose ...
Read More
Oil and natural gas production is not uniformly and homogeneously distributed across all provinces of Iran, whereas a major part of oil and gas incomes consumes in provinces that have not any significant role in oil and gas production. Therefore, any disruption in production of oil and gas might expose the GDP growth of all provinces at risk. In this paper, the multiregional input-output table is calculated for the year 2015. Then, the hypothetical extraction method introduced by Dietzenbacher and Lahr (2013) is employed for estimating the effect of partial and complete extraction of oil and gas production in Khuzestan and other oil-oriented regions on the value added of 71 economic activities in each of regions. The findings reveal that firstly, following the extraction of oil and gas production in Khuzestan, the value added of this region reduces about 32%, while the extraction of the corresponding sector in other oil-related regions will mitigate this region’s value added by 14%. Secondly, the relative reduction in the value added of economic sectors and each sector’s contribution of value-added reduction in each region depend on the economic structure of the interested region. The highest share of the total value added reduction in each region belongs to service sector in Tehran and the agriculture in other non-oil regions. It seems that diversifying energy resources as well as supplying regions, enhancing the fuel consumption efficiency, and renovating the transportation system are the most important policies to have more resilience.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Mohammad Reza Kazemi Najaf Abadi; Mohammad Mahdi Hajian; Ghadir Mahdavi Kelishmi
Abstract
One of the innovations that has been formed in the insurance industry in recent years is transfer the risk to the capital markets. Today, this possibility is provided by issuing insurance bonds and Catastrophe bonds, which are a most important type of insurance-linked securities, can redress inefficiency ...
Read More
One of the innovations that has been formed in the insurance industry in recent years is transfer the risk to the capital markets. Today, this possibility is provided by issuing insurance bonds and Catastrophe bonds, which are a most important type of insurance-linked securities, can redress inefficiency in the insurance industry. On the other hand, traditional insurance solutions to cover the risks of Iran's oil and gas industry is not efficient and sufficient and using CAT bonds to transfer risks of this industry to capital markets is a necessary and inevitable issue. The aim of this research is to identify effective factors for issuing Catastrophe bonds in Iran's oil and gas industry. On this basis and after reviewing the literature through library studies, 33 factors were identified in the form of seven categories, based on the similarities. Then, based on Delphi method, experts were asked to express their opinions through an iterative questionnaire. After take the experts' opinions in every round, the statistics analysis was performed and the Delphi process was stopped in the third round. Based on the results, the number of thirty-two factors in six categories recognized. Also, by using the method of analytical hierarchy process and reusing the opinions of experts, the criteria and sub-criteria were prioritized and in order of preference with the titles Legislation and Amendment of the Rules, Process Management, Transparency, Knowledge Management, Creation and Strengthening of Software Platforms and Cultivation.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
aram amirnia; Mansour Zarra Nezhad
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic and social factors on the emission of carbon dioxide, which has been used as a measure of environmental pollution in Iran for the period of 1352-1397. In order to measure the economic and social factors affecting environmental pollution, ...
Read More
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic and social factors on the emission of carbon dioxide, which has been used as a measure of environmental pollution in Iran for the period of 1352-1397. In order to measure the economic and social factors affecting environmental pollution, it is necessary to study the short-term and long-term relationship between fuel oil consumption, urbanization, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran; For this purpose, the autoregression model with extended distribution intervals (ARDL) was used. The results show that the error correction coefficient obtained in this model shows that in each period, 33% of the short-term failure error can be made to achieve a long-term comparison. According to the estimate, the increase in fuel oil consumption, urbanization and economic growth have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions both in the short term and in the long term. Also, the long-term results indicate that with an increase of one percent of gross domestic production, fuel oil consumption and urban population increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.849, 0.166, and 1.566 percent, respectively. Therefore, the first step to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the country is to pay attention to the amount of fuel oil consumption, hence policies can be made to use alternative energies such as renewable energies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Sima Arabani; masomeh Latifi Benmaran
Abstract
During the last decade, the international price of crude oil has experienced frequent periods of volatility; which has motivated researchers to investigate how oil price uncertainty affects economic activities and financial markets. Reasonably, oil, as a direct or indirect input factor, can strongly ...
Read More
During the last decade, the international price of crude oil has experienced frequent periods of volatility; which has motivated researchers to investigate how oil price uncertainty affects economic activities and financial markets. Reasonably, oil, as a direct or indirect input factor, can strongly affect the cost of production and profitability expectations of companies. Accordingly, oil price changes can change the company's decision-making and performance. In this regard, we have investigated in the present research the impact of crude oil price volatility on the leverage criteria of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, we have used the data of 160 selected companies during the period of 2011 to 2019. We used the panel data method in order to analyze the collected data. The findings of the research showed that crude oil price volatility had negative and significant effects on the leverage criteria of listed companies. Therefore, we concluded that companies reduce their demand for financing to overcome the uncertainty of oil prices.
Consequently, an increase in uncertainty in oil prices can motivate companies to reduce their demand for external financing and thus reduce their leverage.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Esmael Torkamani; Mohammad Hassan Fotros
Abstract
Energy supply and ensuring energy security for countries is a vital goal to achieve growth and sustainable development. Energy security provides a country's ability to meet current and future energy demand, resilience and responsiveness to minimize systematic shocks to supply disruptions. In this ...
Read More
Energy supply and ensuring energy security for countries is a vital goal to achieve growth and sustainable development. Energy security provides a country's ability to meet current and future energy demand, resilience and responsiveness to minimize systematic shocks to supply disruptions. In this study using five dimensions; Availability, Accessibility, Affordability, Acceptability and Develop-ability, as well as by using entropy weight and TOPSIS method, the composite index of Iran's energy security for the period 1980-2019 has been measured. The results show that Iran's energy security has decreased in the period under review. The highest level of energy security was 0.716 in 1982 and the lowest level was 0.272 in 2018. Also, the level of energy security was higher than 0.5 in the periods 1980 to 1987 and 1991 to 1993, and lower than 0.5 in the periods 1988 to 1990 and 1373 to 1994.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
sayed ali emami; sayed yahya abtahi; zohre tabatabaienasab; mohammad ali dehghan tafti
Abstract
در این مطالعه، رابطه بین مصرف انرژی و بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت در ایران با استفاده از روابط غیرخطی از نوع آستانه‌ای موردبررسی قرارگرفته است. نتایج برآورد ...
Read More
در این مطالعه، رابطه بین مصرف انرژی و بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت در ایران با استفاده از روابط غیرخطی از نوع آستانه‌ای موردبررسی قرارگرفته است. نتایج برآورد یک مدل دو آستانه‌ای در نمونه‌ای شامل داده‌های مربوط به 110 شاخه صنعتی طی سال‌های 1398-1381 نشان می‌دهد تأثیر مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت، یک اثر وابسته به وضعیت یا وابسته به رژیم مصرف انرژی است و ضرایب متغیر مصرف انرژی در همه رژیم‌ها بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت، منفی و معنی‌دار هستند. چنانچه نسبت ارزش انرژی مصرف‌شده به ارزش محصولات تولیدشده در بخش صنعت ایران از آستانه مشخصی تجاوز کند تأثیر منفی مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید شدت می‌گیرد. همچنین، تأثیر مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت، یک اثر وابسته به وضعیت یا وابسته به رژیم بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید نیز هست به‌گونه‌ای که در وضعیت‌ها یا رژیم‌های پایین بهره‌وری، اثر مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری صنایع قابل‌توجه است اما در وضعیت‌ها یا رژیم‌های بالای بهره‌وری، اثر مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری تا حد زیادی کاهش می‌یابد. ازاین‌رو صنایع با بهره‌وری بالاتر از تأثیر منفی بسیار کمتری از مصرف انرژی بر بهره‌وری خود برخوردار هستند.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
sarah akbari; Teymour Mohamadi; hamidreza arbab; reza taleblou
Abstract
Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel .Firms which are using the crude oil in their products are facing risk of price volatility which has different reaction in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant ...
Read More
Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel .Firms which are using the crude oil in their products are facing risk of price volatility which has different reaction in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant industry is completely connected to the oil price. With this philosophy when the economy faced volatility the market players faced loss and so to overcome this issue they began to hedge themselves with another commodity .This hedging process in different regimes has different rates. So there is a need to introduce a new model. From the work of Hamiltonian (1989) oil price has its own volatility and regimes so to this attitude there is an effort to calculate efficient hedging ratio with regime switching dynamic constant correlation .In this article monthly data of oil and gold prices for about 10years from2010 till 2020 is used and the model is programed with MATLAB. The result showed that efficient hedge ratio for first regime (first major change in price of two market) is 66 percent and the second (second major change in price of two market) one is 26 percent.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Ali Mazyaki; Ali Asghar Salem; Sepideh Asadi
Abstract
Equality consequences of tariff design for household gas and electricity, as two serious substitutes, is a significant concern for policymakers. To investigate the issue, we use a sample of household income quarters, in different social groups and measured various effects of changes in electricity and ...
Read More
Equality consequences of tariff design for household gas and electricity, as two serious substitutes, is a significant concern for policymakers. To investigate the issue, we use a sample of household income quarters, in different social groups and measured various effects of changes in electricity and gas prices. According to the results, the increase in gas prices for households, comparing to the same increase of electricity prices, has a higher effect on low-income groups.
Based on our partial analysis it should be said that gas was less elastic, which is probably due to the lack of a suitable substitute for gas if the price of this commodity increases. This seems to be the case because gas appliances have a major role in cooking and heating and this lack of energy diversity could jeopardize the energy security of Iranian households to some extent.
Fateme Gholami; Fazel Moridi Farimani; Hamidreza Shahverdi
Abstract
Despite the decrease in the share of oil in the world's energy basket, the absolute amount of oil consumption is still increasing. Oil is at the center of the economic and political developments and countries with the oil and gas deposits are trying to maximize their benefit from these reserves. ...
Read More
Despite the decrease in the share of oil in the world's energy basket, the absolute amount of oil consumption is still increasing. Oil is at the center of the economic and political developments and countries with the oil and gas deposits are trying to maximize their benefit from these reserves. In Iran, there have been many policies and legislations related to optimizing the value and volume of the oil and gas reserve. The term "conservation production" has been mentioned several times in several legislations and guidelines however, it is still ambiguous as to how to implement this framework. In this research, it has been sought to use the real data of an oil reservoir (with periods of natural depletion, primary production, secondary and tertiary recovery), different objective functions (reservoir net present value and final recovery factor) and the effect of changes in the optimization period to model the concept of conservation production. The results show that the changes in the objective function and the optimization periods would have a significant effect on the production path.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Marzieh Asgari; Morteza Khorsandi; Abdolrasol Ghasemi
Abstract
Renewable energies are more compatible with the environment and their preparation and production have less pollution. In addition, since there is no end in sight for this type of energy, renewable energies take on a greater share in the world's energy supply system day by day, even in countries with ...
Read More
Renewable energies are more compatible with the environment and their preparation and production have less pollution. In addition, since there is no end in sight for this type of energy, renewable energies take on a greater share in the world's energy supply system day by day, even in countries with fossil energy. The purpose of this research is to investigate the factors affecting the consumption of renewable energy in OPEC member countries using the panel data approach in the period from 2004 to 2018. In this research, the effects of factors such as good governance index, human capital, intensity of carbon dioxide emission, income (GDP) and crude oil price were investigated. The results of estimating the model using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS method indicated that the good governance index, human capital, carbon dioxide emission intensity and income (GDP) have a positive and significant effect on the consumption of renewable energy in OPEC member countries, but the price Crude oil has no significant effect on the consumption of this group of energies in the mentioned countries. Factors such as the high cost of establishing renewable industries in OPEC member countries and the dependence of these countries' economies on oil revenues can be considered among the reasons for this result.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Maryam Taiiari; Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh; Mir Hossein Mousavi
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of Information and communications Technology due to ecological footprint from the perspective of individual effect and the trend of the countries' reserves and land production in selected developing countries using the data panel method in the ...
Read More
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of Information and communications Technology due to ecological footprint from the perspective of individual effect and the trend of the countries' reserves and land production in selected developing countries using the data panel method in the period 1992-2018. The results showed that increasing mobile penetration rate increased greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions and increased ecological footprint effect. However, increasing Internet penetration rate has reduced carbon dioxide emissions, increased greenhouse gases and increased ecological footprint. Therefore, ICT use in these countries has not yet been effective in improving the environment.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Zahra Dirkvand; Younes Nademi; Reza Maaboudi
Abstract
Due to the heavy reliance on oil revenue in oil-exporting countries, fluctuations in oil prices can impact the social behavior of individuals within society. As a result, it appears that social capital, as a process of social institutions, is affected by oil rent. The purpose of this research is to investigate ...
Read More
Due to the heavy reliance on oil revenue in oil-exporting countries, fluctuations in oil prices can impact the social behavior of individuals within society. As a result, it appears that social capital, as a process of social institutions, is affected by oil rent. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of oil rent on social capital in selected OPEC oil-exporting countries from 2009-2020 using the threshold panel method. The findings indicate that the threshold value for the ratio of oil rent to GDP is estimated at 3.4%. Prior to this threshold, the ratio of oil rent to GDP had a positive and significant effect on social capital; however, after surpassing this threshold, the ratio of oil rent had a negative and significant effect on social capital. Inflation also had a non-linear effect on social capital, while government size did not have a significant impact. Based on these results and the detrimental effects of high levels of oil rent on social capital, it is necessary to control methods that divert oil resources towards rent-seeking activities. One solution could be removing control over oil rent from governments and transferring it directly to citizens. Experience with government management of oil has shown that instead of optimal allocation, most funds have been spent destructively; therefore, mismanagement has turned this divine gift into a curse.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
aram amirnia
Abstract
The current study deals with the effect of GDP, urban population and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in OPEC member countries. To show the details of his findings, in this study, using the panel data method, the effect of GDP, increase in urban population and non-renewable ...
Read More
The current study deals with the effect of GDP, urban population and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in OPEC member countries. To show the details of his findings, in this study, using the panel data method, the effect of GDP, increase in urban population and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions for 13 OPEC member countries in the period of time, 1990 to 2019, reviewed. The results show that GDP, urban population increase and consumption of non-renewable fuels have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The general findings indicate that following the increase in gross domestic production and the industrialization of countries, we will also witness the growth of the urban population. Environmental pollution is mainly aggravated by rapid urbanization and industrialization, as well as economic growth and non-renewable energies in OPEC member countries, which are mainly developing countries, have destructive effects on the environment. This study recommends that sustainable urbanization and economic growth should be promoted using green finance and clean energy sources, Also, the need to change energy consumption patterns from fossil fuels and move towards renewable energy sources should be supported among OPEC member countries.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohamad Sayadi; Milad MohammadKhani; Hosein Hafezi
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to design a composite economic-energy-environmental performance index (3EPI) for Iran's economy by generalizing the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) as well as evaluating the effect of variables on the composite performance index during the period from 1991 ...
Read More
The main goal of this research is to design a composite economic-energy-environmental performance index (3EPI) for Iran's economy by generalizing the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) as well as evaluating the effect of variables on the composite performance index during the period from 1991 to 2021 using a time-varying parameters model (TVP). Composite index variables include inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic growth, budget deficit ratio to GDP, and changes in energy intensity and carbon dioxide emission intensity. The 3EPI performance index is calculated in a weighted and unweighted form, and the trend is separated from the cyclic component with the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Also, the maximum and minimum points of the index are chronicled. The research findings show that the long-term trend of the 3EPI performance index is in the range between 35 and 60 percent, which is significantly different from the base number of the index (i.e. 100 percent). The chronicle of the maximum and minimum points of the index shows that the worst performance based on the 3EPI composite index is related to the implementation period of the structural adjustment policy (1994 and 1995), the first round of economic sanctions (2012), and the intensification of economic sanctions in the latest round of sanctions (2019). And the best performance is related to the two periods of the relative stability of macroeconomic variables (the year 2000) and the period of implementation of the JCPOA agreement (the year 2016).
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Akbar Sheidaei habashi; Seyed Kamal Sadeghi; Davood Behboudi
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to investigate different levels of national risk and its role in the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran, during the period (1997-2021). In terms of purpose, this research is of applied type and in terms of causal-analytical method, ...
Read More
The purpose of this research is to investigate different levels of national risk and its role in the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran, during the period (1997-2021). In terms of purpose, this research is of applied type and in terms of causal-analytical method, and the method of collecting information is of documentary-library type. After calculating the threshold value of each variable, we analyzed the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth using the threshold distance of different country risks. The results indicate the non-linear effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under different risks of the country. This research is one of the first studies in Iran that analyzed the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth based on a risk-based approach. According to the regression model described in the current research, this research provides suggestions for developing a suitable strategic plan with the aim of specifying short-term and long-term goals, future vision, as a road map for those involved.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Mohammad Ali Zamani; Hossein Hasanzadeh; Ali Seifian; Mohammad Qezelbash
Abstract
Making long-term investments in the oil and gas industry to maintain the current production levels and increase its capacity is one of the ways to increase economic resilience in the country's upstream documents, including the resistance economy's general policies. In recent years, there have ...
Read More
Making long-term investments in the oil and gas industry to maintain the current production levels and increase its capacity is one of the ways to increase economic resilience in the country's upstream documents, including the resistance economy's general policies. In recent years, there have been intense sanctions on the country, especially in the energy field. The importance of proper use of China's allocated credit lines to finance these projects is revealed due to the high need for investment in oil and gas industry projects and the impossibility of covering the investment needs of this industry from domestic sources, and the challenge in effective communication with international monetary and financial institutions. Anyway, the conducted studies indicate serious challenges in using the capacity of these credit lines. For this purpose, this research tries to investigate these challenges from many sides. After studying the background of the research and reviewing various sources, this article conducted targeted interviews with experts in the field of financing. Also, the challenges of using credit lines were extracted and classified into four categories: financial and economic, executive and operational, structural and institutional, and juridical and legal, utilizing the method of thematic analysis and focus group. The extracted challenges were exposed to experts to validate the findings. Finally, the formation of the focus group presented the corrective solutions for the use of credit lines to finance oil and gas industry projects.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohamad Sayadi; Habib Soheyli Ahmadi; Razieh Sadat Musavi Khaledi
Abstract
Iran faces several pressing issues, including escalating energy consumption, inadequate price signaling to address consumption patterns, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and prevailing distributional challenges related to energy subsidies. Consequently, reforming energy carrier subsidies in Iran ...
Read More
Iran faces several pressing issues, including escalating energy consumption, inadequate price signaling to address consumption patterns, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and prevailing distributional challenges related to energy subsidies. Consequently, reforming energy carrier subsidies in Iran becomes an imperative task. However, numerous obstacles hinder the effective implementation of this policy, presenting substantial challenges. This study employs a comparative approach that incorporates expert opinions and utilizes the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method with a holistic perspective to evaluate and rank the barriers to energy subsidy reform. The identified barriers are categorized into three groups based on specific criteria: 1) political and social barriers, 2) economic barriers, and 3) institutional and governance barriers. Subsequently, thirteen sub-criteria have been established, considering Iran's economic conditions. The research findings highlight the significance of economic barriers, accounting for 53% weight, followed by political and social barriers with 26%, and institutional and governance barriers with 21%. Notably, among the economic barriers, the high dependency of energy industries on the country's exports and the government's concerns about potential damage to foreign exchange revenues, particularly under sanctions, emerge as crucial factors. Regarding political and social barriers, the prevalent mindset of entitlement among citizens regarding energy subsidies proves noteworthy. Additionally, the lack of a cohesive and reliable database for implementing energy subsidy reform policies assumes utmost importance among institutional and governance barriers. Based on these results, it is imperative for the government to undertake measures encompassing formulation, implementation, and evaluation in all dimensions of energy subsidy reform.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Mohammad Mehdi Farsi Aliabadi; Yavar Dashtbany
Abstract
Oil production sustainability has always been the primary purpose of producers and consumers. However, achieving this objective turned into a challenge due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. In this study, the Markov-Switching model has been applied to investigate the impact of economic ...
Read More
Oil production sustainability has always been the primary purpose of producers and consumers. However, achieving this objective turned into a challenge due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. In this study, the Markov-Switching model has been applied to investigate the impact of economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks on Iran's and Saudi Arabia's oil production. The main results indicated that two regimes, including the ascending and descending regimes. Moreover, the economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks negatively and statistically impact Iran's oil production in both states; these variables similarly influence Saudi Arabia's oil production. According to these results, both countries should reduce the traditional rivalry and detente with each other to reach their long-term goals, such as maximizing their oil production revenue.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
parisa Mohajeri; Reza Taleblou
Abstract
The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the ...
Read More
The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the prevailing assumption of the existence of only one information layer per trading day in PIN is inconsistent with the real-world empirical evidence and exposes it to a considerable underestimation bias. In this paper, we estimate information asymmetry for 55 listed companies in the energy sector during the period from 2017:Q1 to 2023:Q2, utilizing the Multi-Layer Probability of Informed Trading (MPIN) model introduced by Ghachem and Ersan (2023). The findings indicate: First, the assumption of a single information layer is satisfied for only 2.67% of the 1,200 stock/season observations, which implies the necessity of using MPIN to estimate information asymmetry. Second, the use of PIN not only leads to significant underestimation bias, but also provides an inaccurate picture of the ranking of companies from the perspective of information asymmetry. Third, the energy sector faces an average information asymmetry of 34.4%, and estimations reveal that private information reached its peak in the summer of 2020, exceeding 49%. Fourth, the symbols "Bepeyvand" from the electricity, gas, and steam sub-sector and "Shapna" from the refining sub-sector hold the highest (64.75%) and lowest (18.9%) information asymmetry, respectively.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
sheller ayazi; sedigheh Atrkar Roshan; Esmaeel Safarzadeh
Abstract
In recent decades, due to environmental pollution and the reduction of fossil fuel resources,, the consumption of renewable energy has been increasing in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy onsumption on the economic grwoth and the ...
Read More
In recent decades, due to environmental pollution and the reduction of fossil fuel resources,, the consumption of renewable energy has been increasing in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy onsumption on the economic grwoth and the emission of carbon dioxide gas in selected countries. Applying panel data technique, including dynamic ordinary least squares, (DOLS) and Granger causality test, 20 developing countries, including 10 oil producing and exporting countries (OPEC members) and 10 non-oil countries, have been studied during the period from 2000 to 2019.
Based on the results, a one percent increase in renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in both groups of countries leads to an increase in GDP. As an increase in fossil energy consumption in oil-producing countries rises the emission of carbon dioxide, and the use of renewable energy in this group of countries reduces the emission of carbon dioxide. In non-oil countries, the increase in the consumption of non-renewable energy rises the emission of carbon dioxide. Also, the consumption of renewable energy in this group of countries reduces the emission of carbon dioxide. The results of the present study show that in the studied countries, efforts to strengthen economic growth lead to increased carbon emissions and environmental degradation. The findings also indicate the positive effect of non-renewable energy sources on carbon dioxide emissions in both groups of oil-rich and non-oil countries and the positive effect of renewable sources on controlling carbon dioxide emissions.
• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
Eshagh Zarrin; Foroozan Baktash; Seyyed Rasoul Aqadavoud
Abstract
This article was done with the aim of presenting the industrial and commercial development model in the country's oil and gas industry in Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company. The current article is an applied-developmental research in terms of its purpose, and it is a survey-cross-sectional research from ...
Read More
This article was done with the aim of presenting the industrial and commercial development model in the country's oil and gas industry in Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company. The current article is an applied-developmental research in terms of its purpose, and it is a survey-cross-sectional research from the point of view of the data collection method. A mixed exploratory design was used to achieve the goal of the research. The community of participants in the qualitative section includes managers with experience of Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company. Sampling was done by theoretical sampling method and theoretical saturation was achieved with 11 interviews. The statistical population of the quantitative part also includes the experts of Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company, which was estimated to be 384 people using Cochran's formula. The required sample volume was provided by simple random sampling method. A semi-structured interview and a researcher-made questionnaire were used to collect data. The basic categories of industrial and commercial development in the country's oil and gas industry were identified by grounded theory method in Maxqda 20 software. The final model was validated by partial least squares method in Smart PLS 3 software. The results have shown that financial and economic indicators affect the development of and managerial capabilities. These capabilities also affect commercialization strategies. In this regard, the legal and political atmosphere of the country provides the necessary platform and the risk-taking of the industry plays the role of an interventionist. Finally, commercialization strategies lead to industrial and commercial development.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Mohammad Mahdi Najafi; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The ...
Read More
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase in the high inflation rate is associated with macroeconomic instability, increased welfare, unfair distribution of wealth, and a decrease in household purchasing power. Monetarist considers excessive growth of money volume, excess demand in the commodity market, some cost pressure and increase in the price of production inputs, and institutionalists consider structural factors and bottlenecks in various economic and commercial sectors to be the main cause of inflation. Therefore, knowing the factors affecting inflation and providing a solution to control and reduce inflation can lead to socio-economic justice. The components of good governance can also lead to the reduction of inflation through the channel of increasing productivity and improving institutional quality and increasing the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. This research aims to investigate the factors influencing inflation with an emphasis on good governance in oil exporting countries using the generalized moment method (GMM) in the time period (2011-2021). The obtained results indicate that the inflation break, the difference between GDP growth and liquidity growth had a positive effect and good governance had a negative effect on the inflation rate.
سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی
EZATOLLAH TAYEBI; Teymur Mohammadi; morteza khorsandi; abdorasol ghasemi; mohammad sayadi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed ...
Read More
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
)
