Iranian Energy Economics

Abstract In recent years, the surge in greenhouse gas emissions, environmental degradation, and climate change has emerged as a pivotal concern for environmental planners and policymakers. Given the predominant role of fossil fuels in carbon dioxide emissions, this study focuses on mitigating emissions, particularly in nations with robust fossil fuel economies. The primary objective of this research is to examine the impact of financial development and governance quality on carbon dioxide emissions within oil-exporting countries, utilizing the panel smooth transition regression model spanning the period 2000-2021. The findings substantiate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions. Initially, financial development exerts a positive and significant impact on emissions; however, beyond a certain threshold, this effect reverses, becoming negative. Regarding governance effectiveness, many oil-exporting nations wield substantial market influence due to their significant oil revenues. Notably, oil exporting-firms in these countries are predominantly state-owned or quasi-state firms. Their insulation from competitive threats, coupled with a lack of adherence to regulatory frameworks, has resulted in elevated carbon dioxide emissions under both governance regimes.

Abstract This article was done with the aim of presenting the industrial and commercial development model in the country's oil and gas industry in Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company. The current article is an applied-developmental research in terms of its purpose, and it is a survey-cross-sectional research from the point of view of the data collection method. A mixed exploratory design was used to achieve the goal of the research. The community of participants in the qualitative section includes managers with experience in Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company. Sampling was done by theoretical sampling method and theoretical saturation was achieved with 11 interviews. The statistical population of the quantitative part also includes the experts of Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company, which was estimated to be 384 people using Cochran's formula. The required sample volume was provided by a simple random sampling method. A semi-structured interview and a researcher-made questionnaire were used to collect data. The basic categories of industrial and commercial development in the country's oil and gas industry were identified by the grounded theory method in Maxqda 20 software. The final model was validated by the partial least squares method in Smart PLS 3 software. The results have shown that financial and economic indicators affect the development of human, technical and managerial capabilities. These capabilities also affect commercialization strategies. In this regard, the legal and political atmosphere of the country provides the necessary platform and the risk-taking of the industry plays the role of an interventionist. Finally, commercialization strategies lead to industrial and commercial development

Abstract Pricing gasoline and optimal allocation of resources have always been topics of interest for governments and experts. The increasing jump in the exchange rate has created a significant difference between the nominal and real prices of gasoline. Therefore, in the present study, a solution is proposed to narrow the existing gap by introducing a floating tax proportional to gasoline consumption, and its effect on household income distribution is examined. On the other hand, the regressive feature is a weakness of the consumption tax system that leads to undesirable effects on income distribution by imposing a higher tax burden on vulnerable classes. Therefore, the proposed scenario in this study is similar to the current pricing system and is in the form of two-tiered rates (quota-based and non-quota-based rates). The quota-based section is exempt from taxes and is similar to the past procedure, while the non-quota-based gasoline price is calculated based on individuals' consumption, considering a 5% tax for each liter of consumption exceeding the monthly quota. If the consumption increases, instead of receiving more subsidies, the higher expenses will accompany the consumer. In this regard, by using an almost ideal demand system model, the effects of implementing the proposed scenario on inequality and income distribution among urban households were studied, and categorized into four gasoline consumption groups (less than 60 liters, 60 to 80 liters, 80 to 120 liters, and more than 120 liters) during the years 2017-2020, considering some demographic variables such as household size, gender, age, marital status, employment, education, and household head's ownership of housing. Price and income elasticities were extracted, and the compensatory variation (CV) index of changes was calculated. Assuming the implementation of the proposed scenario and the constancy of prices for all commodity groups except gasoline, the household expenditure data was simulated, and inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. The results show that if the above-mentioned scenario is implemented by the government, assuming the constancy of prices for other commodity groups, a relative improvement in the Gini coefficient is obtained, indicating a reduction in inequality.

Abstract Energy subsidies encompass explicit subsidies and implicit subsidies (opportunity costs), both of which significantly influence economic agents' decision-making, as described in the theoretical literature. Iran faces several pressing issues, including escalating energy consumption, inadequate price signaling to address consumption patterns, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and prevailing distributional challenges related to energy subsidies. Consequently, reforming energy carrier subsidies in Iran becomes an imperative task. However, numerous obstacles hinder the effective implementation of this policy, presenting substantial challenges. This study employs a comparative approach that incorporates expert opinions and utilizes the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method with a holistic perspective to evaluate and rank the barriers to energy subsidy reform. The identified barriers are categorized into three groups based on specific criteria: 1) political and social barriers, 2) economic barriers, and 3) institutional and governance barriers. Subsequently, thirteen sub-criteria have been established, considering Iran's economic conditions. The research findings highlight the significance of economic barriers, accounting for 53% weight, followed by political and social barriers with 26%, and institutional and governance barriers with 21%. Notably, among the economic barriers, the high dependency of energy industries on the country's exports and the government's concerns about potential damage to foreign exchange revenues, particularly under sanctions, emerge as crucial factors. Regarding political and social barriers, the prevalent mindset of entitlement among citizens regarding energy subsidies proves noteworthy. Additionally, the lack of a cohesive and reliable database for implementing energy subsidy reform policies assumes utmost importance among institutional and governance barriers. Based on these results, it is imperative for the government to undertake measures encompassing formulation, implementation, and evaluation in all dimensions of energy subsidy reform

Abstract Oil production sustainability has always been the primary purpose of producers and consumers. However, achieving this objective turned into a challenge due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. In this study, the Markov-Switching model has been applied to investigate the impact of economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks on Iran's and Saudi Arabia's oil production. The main results indicated that two regimes, including the ascending and descending regimes. Moreover, the economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks negatively and statistically impact Iran's oil production in both states; these variables similarly influence Saudi Arabia's oil production. According to these results, both countries should reduce the traditional rivalry and detente with each other to reach their long-term goals, such as maximizing their oil production revenue.

Abstract One of the innovations that has been formed in the insurance industry in recent years is risk transfer to the capital markets. Today, this possibility is provided by issuing insurance bonds and catastrophe bonds, which are the most important type of insurance-linked securities and can redress inefficiency in the insurance industry. Today, more and more catastrophe bonds are being issued worldwide, which is welcomed by investors and insurance companies. On the other hand, traditional insurance solutions to cover the risks of Iran's oil and gas industry are not efficient as well as sufficient, and using CAT bonds to transfer risks of this industry to capital markets is a necessary and inevitable issue. The aim of this research is to identify effective factors for issuing catastrophe bonds in Iran's oil and gas industry. Based on this and after reviewing the literature through library studies, 33 factors were identified in the form of seven categories, based on the similarities. Then, based on the Delphi method, experts were asked to express their opinions through an iterative questionnaire. After taking the experts' opinions in every round, the statistics analysis was performed and the Delphi process was stopped in the third round. Based on the results, 32 factors in six categories were recognized. Also, by using the method of analytical hierarchy process and reusing the opinions of experts, the criteria and sub-criteria were prioritized and in order of preference with the titles Legislation and Amendment of the Rules, Process Management, Transparency, Knowledge Management, Creation and Strengthening of Software Platforms and Cultivation. Based on the results of this research, policymakers and activists in this field should consider and apply the various dimensions that have been counted in this research in order to successfully publish papers on catastrophic bonds