Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Economic, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan. Iran.
2 Department of Accounting, Shahinshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahinshahr, Iran,
Abstract
In the process of globalization, the interdependence between countries increases, and changes in economic policies introduce uncertainty shocks to both domestic and foreign economies. In oil-dependent countries, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study examines the impact of uncertainty in global economic policies and oil prices on Iraq's economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The research employs the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric model. The results indicate that an increase in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to a decrease in Iraq's economic growth in the short term, with this effect persisting in the long term. Conversely, a reduction in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to an increase in Iraq's economic growth over both timeframes. Regarding oil prices, a reduction in uncertainty in the short term (at the first lag) fosters economic growth; however, at the second lag, it has a negative impact. In the long term, a decrease in oil price uncertainty contributes to an increase in economic growth. An increase in oil price uncertainty does not significantly affect economic growth in the short term; however, in the long term, it leads to a decline in Iraq's economic growth. These findings highlight the asymmetry in the effects of economic policies and oil prices on Iraq’s economic growth.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)