Iranian Energy Economics

The impact of uncertainty in global economic policies and oil price uncertainty on economic growth in an oil-dependent economy: A case study of Iraq

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Ali Rauf Kazem Jwad Al-Rikabi 1
Maryam Emamimibody 2

1 Department of Economic, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan. Iran.

2 Department of Accounting, Shahinshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahinshahr, Iran,

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2025.84310.2134
Abstract
In the process of globalization, the interdependence between countries increases, and changes in economic policies introduce uncertainty shocks to both domestic and foreign economies. In oil-dependent countries, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study examines the impact of uncertainty in global economic policies and oil prices on Iraq's economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The research employs the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric model. The results indicate that an increase in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to a decrease in Iraq's economic growth in the short term, with this effect persisting in the long term. Conversely, a reduction in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to an increase in Iraq's economic growth over both timeframes. Regarding oil prices, a reduction in uncertainty in the short term (at the first lag) fosters economic growth; however, at the second lag, it has a negative impact. In the long term, a decrease in oil price uncertainty contributes to an increase in economic growth. An increase in oil price uncertainty does not significantly affect economic growth in the short term; however, in the long term, it leads to a decline in Iraq's economic growth. These findings highlight the asymmetry in the effects of economic policies and oil prices on Iraq’s economic growth.

Keywords

Oil Price Uncertainty
Uncertainty of Global Economic Policies
Economic Growth
Oil-Dependent Economy
Subjects
Iranian Energy Economics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 27 April 2025

  • Receive Date 17 February 2025
  • Revise Date 23 April 2025
  • Accept Date 27 April 2025
  • First Publish Date 27 April 2025
  • Publish Date 27 April 2025

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