Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Masoud Cheshmaghil ¹
• Javad Shahraki ²
• Reza Ashraf Ganjoei ²

¹ Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

² Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract

This study uses a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model, Iran’s 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), and 1970–2022 data in R software to examine the impact of uncertainties in hydroelectric energy consumption, urbanization, natural resource rents, industrial output, and per capita income on Iran’s ecological footprint. Five scenarios with 5% increases in each variable were tested via Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% rise in hydroelectric energy consumption (Scenario 1) cut the footprint by 2.124%, underscoring clean energy’s role. Conversely, urbanization (Scenario 2) led to a negligible increase (2.06E-46%), indicating efficient urban planning. Natural resource rents (Scenario 3) most adversely increased the footprint by 3.122% from unregulated exploitation. Industrial output (Scenario 4) rose negligibly (0.002%) due to green tech, while per capita income (Scenario 5) saw a 1.74E-05% increase. The findings stress prioritizing clean energy, regulating resource extraction, and advancing sustainable industry.

Keywords

• Ecological footprint
• Urbanization
• Hydroelectric energy
• Uncertainty
• Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) method