Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran
2 Professor, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Kharazmi University,Iran
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
Keywords
- National Development Fund-
- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
- - Bayesian estimation
- -direct investment
- -minimum variance portfolio method
Main Subjects
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