Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Ezatollah Tayebi ¹
• Teymur Mohammadi ²
• Morteza Khorsandi ³
• Abdolrasol Ghasemi ³
• Mohammad Sayedi ⁴

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran

² Professor, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Allame Tabatabaei University,Iran

⁴ Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Kharazmi University,Iran

Abstract

The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
Introduction
Countries rich in natural resources often struggle with resource mismanagement, institutional inefficiency, and economic volatility. Iran, despite significant oil revenues, has faced low economic growth and macroeconomic instability. The NDF was created to mitigate these challenges by saving oil revenues and promoting productive investment. This research explores how the structure and allocation of NDF resources affect macroeconomic variables and seeks to identify optimal strategies for maximizing its impact.
Methods and Materials
The study employs a DSGE model based on Real Business Cycle (RBC) and New Keynesian foundations, integrating sectors such as households, firms, government, central bank, and the NDF. Bayesian estimation techniques were used to calibrate model parameters using quarterly macroeconomic data. Multiple policy scenarios were simulated, including pure loan-based allocation and mixed investment strategies, to examine their effects on output, inflation, employment, and capital accumulation.
Results and Discussion
Simulation results show that switching from a loan-only strategy to a mixed investment approach enhances capital accumulation, investment, and output growth. While the short-term effects (approximately the first year) of both approaches are similar, the investment-inclusive approach yields superior long-run results. Portfolio optimization through the MVP model recommends allocating 43.4% to equities, 49.6% to mutual funds, and 7% to real estate, maximizing returns under acceptable risk levels.
Conclusion
The findings emphasize that diversifying the NDF’s financial instruments beyond traditional loans enhances both fund profitability and macroeconomic stability. Strategic allocation toward capital markets and investment vehicles leads to sustainable growth and improved intergenerational equity. Future policies should integrate a balanced portfolio approach to optimize the Fund’s economic contribution.
Acknowledgments
The author extends sincere gratitude to Dr. Mehdi Sarem for his invaluable support in model development, and to the editorial board of the Journal of Energy Economics of Iran for their constructive feedback and publication support.
 

Keywords

• National Development Fund
• Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
• Bayesian Estimation
• Direct Investment
• Minimum Variance Portfolio Method

Main Subjects

• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی