نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• اشکان رحیم‌زاده

استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران.

چکیده

هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی تأثیر عوامل مختلف بر میزان شدت انرژی با تأکید بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی و ارتباط متقابل ریسک مالی و توسعه مالی می‌باشد. داده‌های آماری بکار گرفته‌شده در این تحقیق از بانک اطلاعاتی راهنمای بین‌المللی ریسک کشوری، بانک جهانی، ترازنامه انرژی وب‌سایت دانشگاه ام‌آی‌تی طی سال‌های 2022-2000 می‌باشد. به‌منظور برآورد الگوی موردنظر، از رهیافت خود توزیع با وقفه‌های گسترده در چارچوب الگوی پویای کوتاه‌مدت، روابط بلندمدت و الگوی تصحیح خطا استفاده شده است. الگوی (0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1) ARDL با وقفه یک برای متغیر شدت انرژی و وقفه صفر برای کلیه متغیرهای مستقل بر اساس معیار شوارتز-بیزین انتخاب گردید. نتایج الگوی پویای خود توزیع با وقفه‌های گسترده در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد: اثرگذاری قیمت انرژی و سرمایه سرانه بر شدت انرژی غیرمستقیم می‌باشد. تأثیر متغیرهای پیچیدگی اقتصادی، آزادسازی تجاری، نرخ شهرنشینی و کاربران اینترنت بر شدت انرژی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مستقیم است. ضرایب سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی و نیروی کار با وجود معنی‌داری آماری، مقدار آن بسیار کوچک و نزدیک به صفر است. اثرات متقابل ریسک مالی و توسعه مالی و همچنین متغیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی تأثیر معنی‌داری بر شدت انرژی در هر دو بازه زمانی ایجاد ننموده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• شدت انرژی
• پیچیدگی اقتصادی
• ارتباط متقابل ریسک مالی و توسعه مالی
• آزادسازی تجاری
• کاربران اینترنت

موضوعات

• • مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting Energy Intensity with Emphasis on Economic Complexity and Mutual Relationship of Financial Risk and Financial Development

نویسنده [English]

• Ashkan Rahimzadeh

Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Zanjan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan, Iran

چکیده [English]

The main goal of the research is to investigate the impact of various factors on energy intensity with an emphasis on economic complexity and mutual relationship between financial risk and financial development. The statistical data used in this research are from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), World Bank, energy balance and MIT University website during the years 2000-2022. In order to estimate the target model, the Auto Regressive distributed Lags approach (ARDL approach) has been used in the framework of short-term dynamic model, long-term relationships and error correction model. ARDL model (1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) was selected with one interval for energy intensity variable and zero interval for all independent variables based on Schwartz-Bayesian criterion. The results of the ARDL dynamic model in the short-term and long-term show: the effect of energy price and capital per capita on energy intensity is indirect. The effect of variables of economic complexity, trade liberalization, urbanization rate and internet users on energy intensity in the short and long term is direct. Despite its statistical significance, the coefficients of domestic investment and labor force are very small and close to zero. The mutual effects of financial risk and financial development, as well as the foreign direct investment variable, did not have a significant effect on energy intensity in both time periods.
Introduction
In line with the special importance given to environmental issues, rationalizing energy consumption is becoming more and more necessary. The continuity of the supply of finite energies, such as oil, is facing serious doubts, and the revelation of the realities of energy supply is creating anxiety and anomalies in countries.  Reducing energy intensity, or in other words, optimizing energy consumption, is considered one of the development goals and aspirations of policymakers and economic planners in every country, and achieving this goal is not possible except by recognizing its determining factors and providing thoughtful solutions. Energy price The main factor in choosing between energy-efficient technology or environmental technology is the price of energy. Economic complexity can affect energy intensity through scale, composition, and technical effects, which manifest themselves over different time periods. There are various channels proposed regarding the impact of financial risk on energy intensity. Some channels imply a decrease in energy intensity and others imply an increase in energy intensity. These three effects may also appear in the case of foreign direct investment and Trade liberalization. Information and communication technology affects energy intensity through substitution and income effects. Investment may have different effects on energy intensity depending on the structure of the economy. Urbanization can be examined from different perspectives, such as economies of scale and the expansion of economic activities.
Methods and Materials
The analysis used in this research is the ARDL method, which uses three dynamic equations: short-term, long-term, and error correction. The model variables are logarithmic. The dependent variable is energy intensity and the independent variables are energy price, economic complexity, the interrelationship of financial risk and financial development, trade liberalization, urbanization rate, Internet users, capital per capita, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and labor force. Statistics on energy intensity, domestic investment, foreign direct investment, labor, capital per capita, trade liberalization (trade as a percentage of GDP), and urbanization rate were obtained from the World Bank. Information on bank facilities to the non-governmental sector (Financial Development Index) was obtained from the Central Bank, information on economic complexity was obtained from the MIT website, and financial risk information was obtained from the International Country Risk Guide database. Regarding energy prices in Iran, the main energy carriers include petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity. In this study, the energy price index is obtained as a weighted average (based on the share of carriers) of the three price indices of petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity. Each of these sub-indices is calculated using the Laspeyres method. The period under study is 2000-2022. EViews 9 software was also used in the estimation.
Results and Discussion
The results of the ARDL model estimation show that: The impact of energy prices on energy intensity in the short and long term is indirect. Such a result is consistent with the theoretical foundations that increasing energy prices provides an incentive to increase energy efficiency. As economic complexity increases, energy intensity increases in both the short and long term. Therefore, it can be said that the country is not yet at the stage of strong emergence of technical or combination effects, or their magnitude is lower compared to the scale effect. The long-term positive coefficient (0.53) is slightly lower than the short-term (0.775). The urbanization rate has a direct impact on energy intensity in the short and long term. This result indicates that with the expansion of urbanization, on the one hand, urban density in the country has not been able to reduce energy intensity for public urban infrastructure through economies of scale, and on the other hand, with the expansion of economic activities, energy intensity has increased. The value of the long-term positive coefficient (0.563) is lower compared to the short-term (0.82). An increase in capital per capita has a negative impact on energy intensity in the short and long term. Labor, despite its negative impact, has a very small impact in both time periods. That is, a higher share of capital is associated with energy-intensive technologies, and a lower share of capital is associated with technologies with a higher share of energy input. Internet users have a positive impact on energy intensity in the short and long term, indicating that the income effect is dominant over the substitution effect. Foreign direct investment did not have a significant impact on energy intensity in both time periods, which indicates that economic growth is not affected by foreign direct investment. The interaction effects of financial risk and financial development on energy intensity did not have a significant impact in either time period, and it can be said that financial development in the country has not yet reached a level that can significantly increase investment and economic growth.
Conclusion
The energy price variable coefficient implies that each 1% increase in energy prices reduces energy intensity by 0.018 and 0.013% in the short and long run, respectively. The economic complexity coefficient implies that each 1% increase in this variable increases energy intensity by 0.775 and 0.53% in the short and long term, respectively. Trade liberalization has a positive and significant effect on energy intensity, such that each one percent increase in this variable increases energy intensity by 0.038 and 0.026 percent in the short and long term, respectively. The urbanization rate has a positive effect on energy intensity, such that each one percent increase in this variable increases energy intensity by 0.82 and 0.563 percent in the short and long term, respectively. The coefficient of Internet users implies that a one percent increase in Internet users increases energy intensity by 0.023 and 0.016 percent in the short and long run, respectively. The coefficient of domestic investment and labor, despite being statistically significant, is very small and close to zero. The variables of foreign direct investment and the interaction effects of financial risk and financial development did not have a significant effect on energy intensity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Energy Intensity
• Economic Complexity
• Mutual Relationship of Financial Risk and Financial Development
• Trade Liberalization
• Internet Users