نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشکده اقتصاد وعلوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، خوزستان، ایران

2 فارق التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد انرژی

چکیده

هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن است، که به‌عنوان معیاری برای آلودگی محیط زیست در ایران برای دورۀ زمانی 1397-1352 استفاده شده است. به منظور اندازه‌گیری عوامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی مؤثر بر آلودگی محیط زیست، لازم است که به مطالعه تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مصرف نفت کوره، شهرنشینی، رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در ایران پرداخت؛ بدین‌منظور از مدل «خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی گسترده» استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد ضریب تصحیح خطای به‌دست آمده در این مدل نشان می‌دهد که در هر دوره 33 درصد از خطای عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت، برای دستیابی به تعادل بلندمدت را تعدیل نماید. طبق برآورد انجام شده، افزایش مصرف نفت کوره، شهرنشینی و رشد اقتصادی هم در کوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبتی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن دارد. همچنین نتایج بلندمدت حاکی از آن است که با افزایش یک درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی، مصرف نفت کوره و جمعیت شهری به ترتیب 849/0، 166/0 و 566/1 درصد انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن را افزایش می‌دهد. لذا اولین اقدام در جهت کاهش انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در کشور، توجه به میزان مصرف نفت کوره است، از این رو می‌توان سیاستگذاری‌هایی جهت استفاده از انرژی‌های جایگزینی مانند انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر برای کاهش انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن پرداخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic and Social Factors Affecting Environmental Pollution with an Emphasis on Mazut Consumption in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mansour Zarra Nezhad 1
  • Aram Amirnia 2

1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Khuzestan, Iran

2 M.A. in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Khorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology, Khuzestan, Iran

چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic and social factors on the emission of carbon dioxide, which has been used as a measure of environmental pollution in Iran for the period of 1352-1397. In order to measure the economic and social factors affecting environmental pollution, it is necessary to study the short-term and long-term relationship between fuel oil consumption, urbanization, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran. For this purpose, the autoregression model with extended distribution intervals (ARDL) was used. The results show that the error correction coefficient obtained in this model shows that in each period, 33% of the short-term failure error can be made to achieve a long-term comparison. According to the estimate, the increase in fuel oil consumption, urbanization, and economic growth have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions both in the short term and in the long term. Also, the long-term results indicate that with an increase of one percent of gross domestic production, fuel oil consumption and urban population increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.849, 0.166, and 1.566 percent, respectively. Therefore, the first step to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the country is to pay attention to the amount of fuel oil consumption, hence policies can be made to use alternative energies such as renewable energies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • economic growth
  • urbanization
  • Mazut consumption
  • ARDL
  • CO2 emission
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