نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و تربیتی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و تربیتی، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

تولید یکی از عوامل مؤثر بر مصرف انرژی و تغییرات آب و هوایی است. این مطالعه، در دو مرحله به بررسی تأثیر تولید ناخالص داخلی بر مصرف انرژی کشورهای اوپک می‌پردازد. در مرحله اول، براساس آزمون علیت پانل گرنجری رابطه علی بین تولید و مصرف انرژی بررسی شد که نتایج حاکی از رابطه علی یکطرفه از تولید به مصرف انرژی است. در مرحله دوم، با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون «پانل پویای آستانه‌ای» تأثیر تولید بر مصرف انرژی با در نظر گرفتن شدت انرژی (معیاری از کارایی انرژی) به عنوان متغیر آستانه‌ای برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد در مقادیر بالاتر از سطح آستانه‌ای شدت انرژی (27/7) تولید مصرف انرژی را به طور معنی‌داری افزایش می‌دهد، در حالی که در مقادیر پایین‌تر از این سطح، تولید تأثیر مثبت و بی‌معنی بر مصرف انرژی دارد. بدون در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای کنترلی، در مقادیر بالاتر از سطح آستانه‌ای شدت انرژی (91/6) تولید مصرف انرژی را به طور معنی‌داری افزایش می‌دهد، در حالی که در مقادیر پایین‌تر از این سطح، تولید تأثیر منفی و بی‌معنی بر مصرف انرژی دارد. در سیاستگزاری انرژی و محیط زیست توجه به شدت انرژی می‌تواند منجر به حصول رشد اقتصادی پایدار شود. همچنین نتایج این مطالعه با فرضیه زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس مرتبط است، در سطوح پایین شدت انرژی افزایش تولید الزاماً منجر به آسیب‌های زیست‌محیطی نمی‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Energy Intensity in the Asymmetric Impact of GDP on Energy Consumption in OPEC Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Azami 1
  • Pouria Mohammadi 2

1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

چکیده [English]

GDP is one of the factors affecting energy consumption and climate change. This study examines the impact of GDP on energy consumption in OPEC countries in two stages. In the first stage, based on the panel causality test, the causal relationship between GDP and energy consumption was investigated, and the results indicate a one-way causal relationship from GDP to energy consumption. In the second stage, using a dynamic panel threshold regression model, this study investigated the role of energy intensity (one of the important indicators of energy efficiency) in the relationship between energy consumption and the GDP of OPEC countries. The results showed that at values above the threshold level of energy intensity (7.27), GDP significantly increases energy consumption, while at values below this level, GDP has a positive and non-significant effect on energy consumption. Without considering the control variables, at values above the threshold level of energy intensity (6.91), GDP significantly increases energy consumption, while at values below this level, GDP has a negative and non-significant effect on energy consumption. In energy and environmental policy-making, paying attention to energy intensity can lead to sustainable economic growth. Also, the results of this study are related to the Kuznets Environmental Curve Hypothesis; at low-intensity energy levels, increased GDP does not necessarily lead to environmental damage.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • dynamic panel threshold
  • energy consumption
  • economic growth
  • energy intensity
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