نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

امروزه ریسک‌های متعددی ازجمله ریسک‌های اقتصادی، مالی و سیاسی اقتصاد کشورها را تهدید می‌کند. کشورها در مقابل تلاش می‌کنند پیامدهای منفی ناشی از آن را مدیریت ‌کرده و تأثیر آن در اقتصاد خنثی یا حداقل شود. بررسی وضعیت کشورها نشان می‌دهد که بیشتر کشورهای توسعه‌نیافته و در حال توسعه و به‌خصوص کشورهایی که غنی از منابع طبیعی (رانت منابع) هستند به علت وابستگی بالا به درآمدهای نفتی، شدیداً تحت تأثیر این شوک‌های داخلی و خارجی (نفرین منابع) قرار گرفته‌اند؛ اما در مقابل کشورهای توسعه‌یافته با به‌کارگیری سیاست‌های مناسب آسیب کمتری را متحمل شده‌اند. هدف این پژوهش ساخت و معرفی شاخص ترکیبی آسیب‌پذیری نفرین منابع و سپس بررسی تأثیر هریک از ریسک‌های اقتصادی، مالی و سیاسی بر شاخص آسیب‌پذیری نفرین منابع است. لذا با استفاده از جدیدترین داده‌های موجود، رویکرد اقتصادسنجی داده‌های تابلویی برای 14 کشورهای منتخب منطقه منا (خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا) طی سال‌های 2005 الی 2018 انجام شد. آنچه در نتایج برآورد مشاهده شد حاکی از وجود رابطة معکوس و معنی‌دار بین متغیرهای ریسکی بر متغیر وابسته (شاخص آسیب‌پذیری نفرین منابع) بوده که در جهت تأیید فرضیه‌های تحقیق است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of Economic, Financial, and Political Risks on the Resource Curse Vulnerability Index in the Countries of the Mena Region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Danial Farbod 1
  • Mohammad Ali Falahi 2
  • Narges Salehnia 3

1 M.A. in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

چکیده [English]

Today, many risks, including economic, financial, and political ones, threaten the economies of countries. On the other hand, governments try to manage the negative consequences and neutralize or minimize their impact on the economy. A review of the situation shows that most underdeveloped and developing countries, especially those rich in natural resources (resource rents), have been severely affected by these internal and external shocks (resource curse) due to their high dependence on oil revenues; in contrast, developed countries have suffered less by adopting appropriate policies. The purpose of this study is to construct and introduce a composite resource curse vulnerability index and then investigate the impact of each of the economic, financial, and political risks on the resource curse vulnerability index. Therefore, using the latest available data, the econometric approach of panel data was performed for 14 selected countries in the Mena region from 2005 to 2018. Results indicate an inverse and significant relationship between independent variable risks on the dependent variable (resource curse vulnerability index), which confirms the research hypotheses.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial and Political Risks
  • Resource Curse Vulnerability Index
  • Panel Data
  • Mena Region
Abounoori, Esmaiel and Lajevardi, Hasan (2017). Estimation of Economic Resilience and Vulnerability Index: Case Study of OPEC Countries. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, Vol.2 (4), pp. 27-54. [In Persian]
Adibpour, Mehdi and Karbasizadeh, Sina (2019). The Effect of Oil Rent on Corruption in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries (MENA). Economic Modeling, Vol.12 (44), pp. 47-72. [In Persian]
Ahmadi Niyaz, Sadaf, Zeinalzadeh, Reza and Raeispour Rajabali (2019). Study of Good Ggovernance Effect on Environment Quality Index in Selected Developing Countries. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Vol.20 (4), pp. 165-177. [In Persian]
Alexeev, M. and Conrad, R. (2011), The Natural Resource Curse and Economic Transition. Econ. Syst., Vol.35 (4), 445-461.
Andersen, J. and Aslaksen, S. (2008). Constitutions and the Resource Curse. J. Dev. Econ., Vol.87 (2), 227-246.
Angeon, V. and Bates, S. (2015). Reviewing Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: A Sustainable Approach and Application. World Development, Vol.72, pp.140-162.
Ansari, D. (2016). Resource Curse Contagion in the Case of Yemen. Resource Policy, Vol.49, pp. 444-454.
Arezki, R. and Van der Ploeg, F. (2010). Trade Policies, Institutions and the Natural Resource Curse. Appl. Econ. Lett., Vol.17 (15), pp. 1443-1451.
Auty, R. (1996). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis. Routledge, 272 pages.
Biresselioglu, M. (2019). How Vulnerable are Countries to Resource Curse?: A Multidimensional Assessment. Energy Research & Social Science, Vol.47, pp. 93-101.
Boorman, J., Faajgenbaum, J., Ferhani, H., Bhaskaran, M., Arnold, D. and Kohli, H.A. (2013). The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries Resilience to Shock.10 Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies.
Brander, A., Brekke, H. and Naug, B. (2016). Greater Adaptability in the Norwegian Oil Service Industry. Economic Commentaries, Norges Bank, [online] Retrieved from: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/ Papers/Economic commentaries/2016/Economic-commentaries-42016/ (Accessed 5 November 2017).
Briguglio, L. (2003). The Vulnerability Index and Small Island Developing States: A Review of Conceptual and Methodological Issues. In AIMS Regional Preparatory Meeting on the Ten YearReview of the Barbados Programme of Action: Praia, Cape Verde.
Briguglio, L. and Galea, W. (2003). Updating and Augmenting the Eeconomic Vulnerability Index. Occasional Paper, University of Malta.
Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N. and Vella, S. (2008). Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, Vol.37(3), pp. 229-247.
Bulte, E., Damania, R. and Deacon, R. (2005). Resource Intensity, Institutions, and Development. World Dev., Vol.33 (7), pp. 1029-1044.
Costa, Edmilson and Moutinho, dos Santos (2013). Institutional Aanalysis and the “Resource Curse” in Developing Countries. Energy Policy, Vol.63 (C), pp. 788-795.
Duval, R., Elmeskov, J. and Vogel, L. (2007). Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks. Working Paper No. 567, Paris, France: OECD Publishing.
Ebeke C., Omgba L. and Laajaj, R. (2015). Oil, Governance and the Misallocation of Talent in Developing Countries. J. Dev. Econ., Vol.114, pp. 126-141.
Ebrahimi, Mohsen and Salarian, Mohammad (2008). Investigating the Natural Factors of Natural Resources in the Oil Exporter and its Effect in OPEC on the Economic Growth of its Members. Research Journal of Quantitative Economics, Vol.6 (20), pp. 77-100. [In Persian]
Falahi, Mohammad Ali, Mahdavi Adeli, Mohammad Hossein and Jandaghi Meybodi, Fereshteh (2014). Natural Resource Rents and Corruption in OPEC Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Iranian Energy Economics, Vol.3 (11), pp. 195-225. [In Persian]
Falana, F. (2016). The Blessing of Natural Resource Endowment and The Curse of Corrupt Leadership: Critical Perspectives on Nigeria’s the State of Underdevelopment. [online] Retrieved from: Sahara Reporters, (Accessed8November2017),
Franke, J. (2010). The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. Working Paper No. 15836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
Ghiasvand, Abolfazl and Saboori, Fatemeh (2018). The Relationship between Resource Governance and Economic Growth in Countries with Mineral Resources. Financial Economics, Vol.5 (16), pp. 113-134. [In Persian]
Guilló, M. and Perez-Sebastian, F. (2015). Neoclassical Growth and the Natural Resource Curse Puzzle. J. Int. Econ., Vol.97 (2), pp. 423-435.
Haji Yousefi, Amir Mohammad. (1998). State and Economic Development in Iran. Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol.1 (1), pp. 179-206. [In Persian]
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol.14, pp. 1251-1271.
Holden, S. (2013). Avoiding the Resource Curse, the Case Norway. Energy Policy, Vol.63, pp. 870-876.
James, A. (2014). The Resource Curse: A Statistical Mirage. J. Dev. Econ. Vol.114, 55-63.
Keenan, P. (2014). International Institutions and the Resource Curse. Penn State J. Law Int. Aff., Vol.3 (1), pp. 216-260.
Kumar, H., Toshniwal, A, and Gupta, S. (2016). The Resource Curse Play: A Comparative Study of Norway and Venezuela. IOSR J. Econ. Finance, Vol.7 (5), pp. 13-20.
McDowell, Allen. R-squared after xtgls. StataCorp.
Mehlum, H., Moene, K., and Torvik, R. (2006), Institutions and the resource curse, Econ. J., 116 (508), 1-20.
Moallemi, Mozhgan (2019). The Effect of Economic Vulnerability on the Development of MENA Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, Vol.9 (33), pp.141-156. [In Persian]
Moghari, Maryam, Faridzad, Ali and Khorsandi, Morteza (2016). The Impact of Economic Vulnerability and Resilience on GDP among Selected OPEC Countries. Journal of Iranian Economic Development Analyses, Vol.4 (2), pp. 77-106. [In Persian]
Natural Resource Governance Institute, (2015). The Resource Curse: The Political and Economic Challenges of Natural Resource Wealth, NRGI Reader. Natural Resource Governance Institute.
Nazari, Mohsen and Mubarak, Asghar (2011). Abundance of natural resources, Dutch disease and economic growth in oil countries. Quarterly Energy Economics Review, Vol.27 (4), pp. 47-68. [In Persian]
Ouoba, Y. (2016). Natural Resources: Funds and Economic Performance of Resource-rich Countries. Resource Policy, Vol.50, pp. 108-116.
Papyrakis, E. and Gerlagh, R. (2004), The Resource Curse Hypothesis and its Transmission Channels. J. Comp. Econ., Vol.32 (1), pp. 181-193.
Parlee, B (2015). Avoiding the Resource Curse: Indigenous Communities and Canada’s Oil Sands. World Dev., Vol.74, pp. 425-436.
Rasekhi, Saeed and Saedi, Roya (2018). The Impact of Natural Resource Rent and Governance Quality on Energy Intensity in Fuel Exporting Countries. Iranian Energy Economics, Vol.7 (28), pp.83-104. [In Persian]
Robinson, J., Torvik, R. and Verdier, T. (2006). Political Foundations of the Resource Curse. J. Dev. Econ., Vol.79 (2), pp.447- 468.
Ross, M. (2013). The Oil Curse. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Rosser, A. (2006). The Political Economy of the Resource Curse: A Literature Survey. Working Paper Series, 268, Brighton.
Sachs, J. and Warner, A. (2001). The Curse of Natural Resources. Eur. Econ. Rev., Vol.45 (4-6), pp. 827-838.
Shakeri, Abbas, Mohamadi, Teymour and Najafi Jazeh, Hamed (2016). Introducing the Theoretical Basis of Oil Vulnerability Index for Oil Exporting Countries (the Case of Iran). Iranian Energy Economics, Vol.5 (19), pp. 79-111. [In Persian]
Smith, B. (2015). The Resource Curse Exorcised: Evidence from a Panel of Countries. J. Dev. Econ., Vol.116, pp. 57-73.
Souri, Ali (2013). Econometrics (advanced) with the use of EViews 8 and Stata 12. Farhangshenasi Publication, First Edition. [In Persian]
Sovacool, B., Walter, G., Van, de Graaf and Andrews, T. (2016). Energy Governance, Transnational Rules, and the Resource Curse: Exploring the Effectiveness of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). World Dev., Vol.83, pp. 179-192.
Statistical Review of World Energy (2020). British Petroleum.
World Bank (2016), Worldwide Governance Indicators, [online] Retrieved from: (Accessed 1 November 2017), https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/ worldwide-governance-indicators.