نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشیار اقتصاد مالی و انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران
چکیده
نقش سیستم مالی جهت تأمین نیاز سرمایه‌گذاری کلان برای توسعه تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر جهت کاهش گازهای گلخانه‌ای و امنیت انرژی بسیار با اهمیت است. رابطه بین توسعه مالی و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر تحت تأثیر ویژگی‌های مختلف و ساختار اقتصادی کشورها قرار دارد. تأثیر فراوانی منابع طبیعی بر رابطه بین توسعه مالی و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر بر اساس میزان توسعه یافتگی سیستم مالی کشورها می‌تواند متفاوت باشد. در پژوهش حاضر، تأثیرگذاری توسعه مالی بر توسعه تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر در دو گروه مختلف از کشورهای صاحب منابع طبیعی ( ۲۰ کشور توسعهیافته با سیستم مالی توسعهیافته و کمتر توسعهیافته ، ۲۵ کشور در حال توسعه با سیستم مالی توسعهیافته و کمتر توسعهیافته)، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. رابطه مذکور و عوامل مؤثر بر آن با استفاده از تخمین زن گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته دو مرحله‌ای «آرلانو و باند» و« بلوندل و باند» طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2021 انجام شده و صحت نتایج به دست آمده نیز با استفاده از تخمین زن‌های «حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا» و «حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملا اصلاح شده» مورد تأیید قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج، توسعه مالی در تمامی کشورهای مورد بررسی تأثیر مثبت بر توسعه تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر داشته است. همچنین فروانی منابع طبیعی در کشورهای توسعه‌یافتۀ صاحب منابع طبیعی نه تنها موجب کاهش ظرفیت نصب تکنولوژی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر نشده است، بلکه در کشورهای توسعه‌یافتۀ صاحب منابع طبیعی با بازارهای مالی توسعهیافته، موجب توسعه تکنولوژی‌های انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر شده، بنابراین فرضیه نفرین منابع در این کشورها تأیید نشده است. پدیده نفرین منابع طبیعی در کشورهای در حال توسعه صاحب منابع طبیعی به‌ویژه با بازارهای مالی کمتر توسعهیافته در این دوره تأیید شده است. لذا میزان توسعه یافتگی سیستم مالی کشورهای برخوردار از منابع طبیعی یکی از مهم ترین پارامترهایی است که می‌تواند از بروز نفرین منابع در این کشورها جلوگیری کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Financial Development and Renewable Energy Technology Development Nexus, and the Role of Natural Resources: Developed Financial Systems vs. Less Developed Financial Systems
نویسنده [English]
- Majid Aghaei
Associate Professor of Financial and Energy Economics at University of Mazandaran
چکیده [English]
This study investigates the impact of financial development on renewable energy technology deployment in resource-rich countries with varying levels of financial system maturity. Using panel data from 2000 to 2021, the models were estimated with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), while the robustness of results was validated through Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The findings indicate that financial development positively affects renewable energy growth in all countries studied. In developed resource-rich countries, particularly those with advanced financial markets, natural resource abundance has facilitated renewable energy development, providing no evidence of the “resource curse.” In contrast, developing resource-rich countries with less developed financial systems show signs of the resource curse. These results highlight the crucial role of financial system development in transforming resource wealth into an opportunity for renewable energy advancement.
Introduction
The sharp rise in energy prices, particularly oil, over the twentieth century has brought about profound challenges and opportunities for the global economy. The heavy reliance on fossil fuels has raised serious concerns regarding energy security and environmental sustainability, prompting countries to seek alternative energy solutions. Among these, the development of renewable energy technologies has emerged as a crucial strategy to mitigate climate change and ensure long-term energy security (Bhattacharya et al., 2017; Charfeddine & Kahia, 2017). In recent years, developed economies have adopted a variety of policy instruments—such as feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards—to accelerate renewable energy deployment (Kim & Park, 2016). However, despite these efforts, the contribution of renewable energy to total energy consumption remains limited, particularly in developing economies. High upfront capital costs and inadequate financial support are frequently cited as major barriers to renewable energy investment. Financial market development plays a pivotal role in mobilizing resources for renewable energy projects by facilitating access to capital and reducing investment risks. Yet, in resource-rich developing countries, the interplay between financial development and renewable energy expansion is complicated by the “resource abundance” phenomenon. While natural resource wealth has the potential to finance large-scale renewable energy investments, empirical evidence indicates that it can also distort economic structures and hinder sustainable development (Nili & Ratad, 2007; Moradbeigi & Law, 2016). Countries such as Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, despite abundant oil and gas revenues, have made limited progress in renewable energy adoption.
This study aims to explore how financial development influences renewable energy growth in resource-rich economies, considering the dual role of natural resource abundance. By distinguishing between countries with varying levels of financial system development, this research seeks to provide new insights into the mechanisms through which resource wealth and financial markets interact to shape renewable energy transitions.
Methods and Material
Drawing on theoretical foundations and previous studies (e.g., Moradbeigi & Law, 2016; Nili & Rastad, 2007; Kim & Park, 2016), this study employs a dynamic model to investigate the impact of financial development on the deployment of renewable energy technologies, while accounting for the role of natural resource abundance and the level of financial system development across countries. The general model is specified as follows:
In this model, represents the installed capacity of renewable energy technologies in country i at time t. The vector includes explanatory variables such as financial development (FD), natural resource rents (NRR), real GDP per capita, population (POP), consumer price index (CPI), and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The interaction term FD∗NRR is incorporated to examine the indirect effect of resource abundance on renewable energy development through its influence on financial development.
Given the dynamic nature of the model, the estimation is conducted using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), as proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and further refined by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). The sample comprises resource-rich developed and developing countries over the period 2000–2021. Countries are classified into two groups—those with developed and less-developed financial systems—based on the financial development index provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the categorization of developed and developing economies follows the World Bank classification. Only countries with significant natural resource rents are included in the sample (Sachs & Warner, 2001; Moradbeigi & Law, 2016).
Results and Discussion
The empirical findings, based on dynamic panel GMM estimations, reveal significant insights into the relationship between financial development and the deployment of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in resource-rich countries. Diagnostic tests, including the Sargan test for instrument validity and Arellano-Bond serial correlation tests, confirm the robustness and reliability of the model estimations. In resource-rich developed countries, financial development exhibits a strong and positive impact on both annual and cumulative renewable energy capacities, regardless of the maturity level of their financial markets. This highlights the critical role of well-functioning financial systems in mobilizing investments for RETs. Furthermore, the positive and significant coefficients of natural resource rents (NRR) contradict the resource curse hypothesis in these countries, suggesting that revenues from natural resources have been effectively utilized to promote clean energy transitions. The interaction term (FD*NRR) is also significant in countries with highly developed financial systems, indicating that financial development amplifies the positive effect of resource abundance on renewable energy deployment.
In contrast, the results for resource-rich developing countries present a more nuanced picture. While financial development positively influences RET expansion in countries with advanced financial markets, its effect is statistically insignificant in those with underdeveloped financial systems. Moreover, the negative and significant coefficient of NRR, alongside the interaction term (FD*NRR), confirms the existence of the resource curse in developing economies with weak financial infrastructures. This suggests that inadequate financial systems hinder the ability of these countries to channel resource rents towards sustainable energy investments. Control variables such as GDP per capita and CPI show consistent positive effects on RET deployment across most models, underscoring the importance of economic development and energy price signals in driving renewable energy adoption. Conversely, greenhouse gas emissions are negatively associated with RETs, supporting the notion that increased fossil fuel dependency hampers clean energy progress.
Robustness checks using FMOLS and DOLS estimators corroborate the main GMM results, further strengthening the study’s findings. These results collectively emphasize the pivotal role of financial development in transforming natural resource wealth into a driver for renewable energy growth, particularly in countries with efficient financial systems.
Conclusion
This study examined the role of natural resource abundance (resource rents) in shaping the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology (RET) deployment in resource-rich developed and developing countries, with particular attention to the level of financial market development during the period 2000–2021. The findings reveal that financial development positively influences RET growth in both groups of countries. However, in resource-rich developed countries, this effect is significant regardless of the level of financial market development, whereas in developing countries, the impact of financial development on RET is only significant in those with advanced financial markets. This underscores the critical role of efficient financial systems in mobilizing resources and reducing investment risks in renewable energy projects.
Moreover, the positive and significant effect of resource rents in developed countries rejects the “resource curse” hypothesis, highlighting the capacity of advanced financial markets to channel resource revenues toward RET advancement. Conversely, in resource-rich developing countries with underdeveloped financial markets, resource rents negatively affect RET, confirming the existence of the “resource curse.”
Based on these results, it is recommended that countries with less developed financial systems strengthen credit markets, support private sector investments, create financial incentives, and enhance institutional frameworks to facilitate renewable energy technology deployment. Additionally, policies aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth, ensuring fair energy pricing, and implementing environmental strategies can play a vital role in reducing dependence on fossil fuels and promoting RET expansion.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to express their sincere gratitude to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and constructive suggestions, which have significantly improved the quality of this study.
Keywords: Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Financial Development, Natural Resource Rent, GMM Estimator
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Associate Professor of Financial and Energy Economics at University of Mazandaran
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