نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران
2 دکترای علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران
چکیده
پایداری تولید نفت همواره یکی از اهداف تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان این کالای اساسی بوده هرچند دستیابی به این هدف به دلیل بروز وقایع پیش‌بینی نشده مانند نااطمینانی‌های اقتصادی و حوادث جهانی و منطقه‌ای با چالش مواجه است. در این مطالعه تلاش شده است که تأثیر نااطمینانی‌های اقتصادی و ریسک ژئوپولتیک بر تولید نفت دو کشور ایران و عربستان سعودی مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد. با توجه به ماهیت پویای بازار نفت در این مطالعه برای رسیدن به هدف از روش تغییر رژیم مارکوف سویچینگ بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که در هر دو کشور مورد بررسی دو رژیم صعودی و نزولی تولید نفت قابل مشاهده است. همچنین نااطمینانی اقتصادی و ریسک ژئوپولتیک در هر دو رژیم بر تولید نفت ایران و عربستان سعودی اثر نامطلوب دارد. با توجه به این نتایج پیشنهاد می‌شود که دو رقیب سنتی برای دستیابی به اهداف بلندمدت خود ازجمله کسب حداکثر درآمد از تولید نفت، در راستای تنش‌زادیی گام بردارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Geopoliti cal Risk, Economics Uncertainty and Oil Production Regime Change; Case Study of Iran and Saudi Arabia
نویسندگان [English]
- Mohammad Mehdi Farsi Aliabadi 1
- Yavar Dashtbany 2
1 Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
2 Ph.D. in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Oil production sustainability has always been the primary purpose of producers and consumers. However, achieving this objective turned into a challenge due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. In this study, the Markov-Switching model has been applied to investigate the impact of economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks on Iran's and Saudi Arabia's oil production. The main results indicated that two regimes, including the ascending and descending regimes. Moreover, the economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks negatively and statistically impact Iran's oil production in both states; these variables similarly influence Saudi Arabia's oil production. According to these results, both countries should reduce the traditional rivalry and detente with each other to reach their long-term goals, such as maximizing their oil production revenue.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Oil Production
- Price volatility
- Production Regime
- Markov-Switching model
ابراهیمی، محسن؛ بابایی آغ اسمعیلی، مجید و کفیلی، وحید. (1395). بررسی رژیم‌های قیمتی دو شاخص عمده بازار جهانی نفت (برنت و WTI) قبل و بعد از بحران مالی: کاربردی از رویکرد مارکف سوئیچینگ. اقتصاد مقداری (بررسی‌های اقتصادی)،13(3)، 83-57.
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