سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
EZATOLLAH TAYEBI; Teymur Mohammadi; morteza khorsandi; abdorasol ghasemi; mohammad sayadi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed ...
Read More
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
parisa Mohajeri; Reza Taleblou
Abstract
The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the ...
Read More
The Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) is one of the important measures of market microstructure that is generally used to estimate the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be challenging due to boundary solutions, local maxima, and Floating Point Exceptions (FPE). Additionally, the prevailing assumption of the existence of only one information layer per trading day in PIN is inconsistent with the real-world empirical evidence and exposes it to a considerable underestimation bias. In this paper, we estimate information asymmetry for 55 listed companies in the energy sector during the period from 2017:Q1 to 2023:Q2, utilizing the Multi-Layer Probability of Informed Trading (MPIN) model introduced by Ghachem and Ersan (2023). The findings indicate: First, the assumption of a single information layer is satisfied for only 2.67% of the 1,200 stock/season observations, which implies the necessity of using MPIN to estimate information asymmetry. Second, the use of PIN not only leads to significant underestimation bias, but also provides an inaccurate picture of the ranking of companies from the perspective of information asymmetry. Third, the energy sector faces an average information asymmetry of 34.4%, and estimations reveal that private information reached its peak in the summer of 2020, exceeding 49%. Fourth, the symbols "Bepeyvand" from the electricity, gas, and steam sub-sector and "Shapna" from the refining sub-sector hold the highest (64.75%) and lowest (18.9%) information asymmetry, respectively.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Majid Aghaei
Abstract
One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level ...
Read More
One influential factor in this relationship is the abundance of natural resources and its level of dependency. The impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between financial development and renewable energy technology deployment can vary based on the financial system's development level in different countries. Given the importance of this topic, this study seeks to investigate the influence of financial development on the development of renewable energy technologies in two distinct groups of rich in natural resources countries, characterized by differing levels of financial system development (20 developed resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems, and 25 developing resource-rich countries with developed and less developed financial systems). The examination and empirical testing of this relationship, along with its contributing factors, have been conducted using the Two-Stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimators by Arellano and Bond, and Blundell and Bond, over the period from 2000 to 2021. Based on the results, financial development has demonstrated a positive impact on the deployment of renewable energy technologies across all studied countries, underscoring the undeniable role of financial development in renewable energy development. Furthermore, according to the research findings, the abundance of natural resources in resource-rich developed countries has not only led to a reduction in the capacity of renewable energy technologies installation but also has facilitated the deployment of renewable energy technologies, especially in resource-rich developed countries with advanced financial markets.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
musa khoshkalam khosroshahi; zahra moradi
Abstract
Energy is always a widely used input in the production sector and used in the distribution and consumption of many goods and services, which should be used optimally. One of the indicators showing the optimal use of energy input is the energy intensity index. Obviously, the lower the energy intensity, ...
Read More
Energy is always a widely used input in the production sector and used in the distribution and consumption of many goods and services, which should be used optimally. One of the indicators showing the optimal use of energy input is the energy intensity index. Obviously, the lower the energy intensity, it means that less energy has been used for each unit of production of goods and services. Several factors can be mentioned that affect energy intensity, of which innovation is one of the key ones. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of several factors on energy intensity in selected countries of the MENA region during the period of 2010-2020, with an emphasis on innovation and its two sub-indices (Information and communication technology and Access to finance). To achieve the goal of the research, the panel data model (panel data) for 13 selected MENA countries and the GMM estimation method have been used. The results show that the influence of control variables including "government final consumption expenditure", "energy price" and "trade openness" on energy intensity is negative and significant. The estimation findings of the first model indicate a negative and significant effect of the overall innovation index on energy intensity, and the estimation results of the second and third models also indicate a negative and significant effect of the innovation sub-indices (information and communication technology and financial access) on the energy intensity of the selected countries in the period. is under investigation.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
morteza tahamipour zarandi; seyed amin azimi
Abstract
Attention to water resources and consumption in Iran's industrial sector is important due to the existence of severe tensions in the country's water resources. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the virtual water trade in the oil industry of Iran. For this purpose, the technical-basic ...
Read More
Attention to water resources and consumption in Iran's industrial sector is important due to the existence of severe tensions in the country's water resources. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the virtual water trade in the oil industry of Iran. For this purpose, the technical-basic approach has been used to measure virtual water and the special water demand and virtual water trade of Iran's oil sector has been calculated from 1978 to 2019. The results show that due to the high volume of oil exports, Iran is a net exporter of virtual water. The amount of water consumed in the oil industry and the process of extraction and production of crude oil in the years under review averaged 594 million cubic meters per year and the amount of virtual water that left the country following the export of crude oil in these years averaged 356 million cubic meters per year. Also, the export value of virtual water in the oil sector has a value of 1838 thousand Rials per cubic meter. To manage the country's water resources and the leading crises in this sector of the industry, it is possible to greatly increase water efficiency in this sector by modifying production processes and updating equipment, facilities, and methods used to optimally consume water in this sector.
.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Seyyed Mohsen Azimi Dokht
Abstract
The curse of natural resources is an emerging phenomenon that is of interest to economic researchers. The attention of researchers is about the direct effects of resources on economic factors. The subjects of these researches are around axes such as the impact on growth, productivity, and production ...
Read More
The curse of natural resources is an emerging phenomenon that is of interest to economic researchers. The attention of researchers is about the direct effects of resources on economic factors. The subjects of these researches are around axes such as the impact on growth, productivity, and production incentives. In the research conducted, special attention has been paid to how the abundance of resources affects macroeconomic factors such as the Dutch disease; but what is not considered is the investigation and analysis of the side effects of abundant resources on economic, social, and political indicators. One of the side effects of the abundance of resources can be its effect on the spread of economic corruption. In case of an abundance of natural resources, the potential for widespread corruption is created. This research was done in a descriptive and analytical way. It has investigated the relationship between the extent of economic corruption and the abundance of natural resources. To conduct this research, the statistics of selected developing countries in the period of 2000-2021 have been used. The information used in this research is the indicators of the perception of corruption, fuel export of countries, and economic freedom during the research period, which is from reliable sources such as the United Nations, Transparency International, and the Heritage Foundation. Multivariate panel data regression method with random effects has been used to estimate model parameters. The results of this research show that there is a negative and significant relationship between the corruption perception index and the fuel export index of selected countries, so that in the 95% confidence interval, the estimated coefficient of the independent variable is negative 0.01. For economic freedom, it is 0.07, which is in line with the results of other researches in this field. Therefore, it can be stated that the abundance of natural resources has a direct relationship with the extent of economic corruption.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Danial Farbod; Mohammad Ali Falahi; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
Today, many risks, including economic, financial, and political ones, threaten the economies of countries. On the other hand, governments try to manage the negative consequences and neutralize or minimize their impact on the economy. A review of the situation shows that most underdeveloped and developing ...
Read More
Today, many risks, including economic, financial, and political ones, threaten the economies of countries. On the other hand, governments try to manage the negative consequences and neutralize or minimize their impact on the economy. A review of the situation shows that most underdeveloped and developing countries, especially those rich in natural resources (resource rents), have been severely affected by these internal and external shocks (resource curse) due to their high dependence on oil revenues; in contrast, developed countries have suffered less by adopting appropriate policies. The purpose of this study is to construct and introduce a composite resource curse vulnerability index and then investigate the impact of each of the economic, financial, and political risks on the resource curse vulnerability index. Therefore, using the latest available data, the econometric approach of panel data was performed for 14 selected countries in the Mena region from 2005 to 2018. Results indicate an inverse and significant relationship between independent variable risks on the dependent variable (resource curse vulnerability index), which confirms the research hypotheses.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
zarir negintaji; Hojat Izadkhasti
Abstract
Today, there are two different perspectives on the long-term effects of international trade on countries' economies in terms of environmental perspective. One view claims that countries are deregulating their country to promote free trade, which reduces their environmental standards and, ultimately, ...
Read More
Today, there are two different perspectives on the long-term effects of international trade on countries' economies in terms of environmental perspective. One view claims that countries are deregulating their country to promote free trade, which reduces their environmental standards and, ultimately, the decline of the international environment. Another view believes that free trade through optimal allocation of resources allows countries to specialize in the production of goods and services in which they have a relative advantage, and hence, improve energy intensity. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of international trade and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in D8 countries with the panel data approach. This study uses data from 1993 to 2018 from the World Bank. The results show that the coefficient related to the GDP variable is positive and for the GDP square grade is negative, which confirms the Kuznets environmental hypothesis in the studied countries. Foreign direct investment has no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Also, the results show that exports and imports of goods and services have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions that is consistent with conventional theories as well as research background. Energy intensity and proportion of urban population have also had a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
jalal Dehnavi; Mir Hossein Mousavi; Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi; Lana Eivazy
Abstract
The growth and survival of a company are based on making appropriate and principled investment decisions. This is while a company always continues to operate in an unpredictable environment and under the influence of various shocks. In this regard, this issue has created a two-way relationship between ...
Read More
The growth and survival of a company are based on making appropriate and principled investment decisions. This is while a company always continues to operate in an unpredictable environment and under the influence of various shocks. In this regard, this issue has created a two-way relationship between investment and uncertainty. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between investment and uncertainty in the Iranian oil industry during the period 2010 to 2019 for 32 listed companies active in the oil industry. In this regard, using the vector auto-regression approach with generalized auto-regression conditional variance heterogeneity moment, first, the structural shocks of the oil market are extracted, and then using the generalized moments approach of the Tobin q investment model is estimated. Findings show that the shock caused by global demand (εpw), and the shock caused by the global stock market (εsp) have a negative and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to corporate capital stock. The ratio of gross investment to the company's capital stock has a negative effect on its amount with a one-year delay, which is also statistically significant. Oil supply shock (εopw) and oil price shock (εrp) have a positive and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to the company's capital stock. The ratio of market value to the replacement value of company assets has a positive and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to capital stock. In this regard, due to the effectiveness of oil companies’ investments in global variables such as global oil price fluctuations and supply and demand shocks, investors' stock insurance against sudden fluctuations and shocks is recommended.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
mojtaba rostami; Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash
Abstract
Due to the strategic role of volatility and instability of crude oil prices and their effects on all countries of the world, different methods of modeling and forecasting are necessary. Over the past two decades, an extensive literature has emerged on various approaches to empirically modeling volatility ...
Read More
Due to the strategic role of volatility and instability of crude oil prices and their effects on all countries of the world, different methods of modeling and forecasting are necessary. Over the past two decades, an extensive literature has emerged on various approaches to empirically modeling volatility in the crude oil market. In this research, WTI crude oil price volatility modeling, which is one of the most important types of crude oil in the market of this strategic commodity, is examined with six flexible stochastic volatility (SV) models. Then the experimental performance of these models is compared with each other using Bayesian methods. The findings of this study show that adding one jump in efficiency and leverage effect to the stochastic volatility (SVLJ) model greatly improves its performance compared to other models. According to the findings of this model, the stability of volatility in the WTI market is very high and on average one jump occurs in this market every year. However, this model shows that in 2020, two jumps in WTI returns occurred in April and May, which is a unique event. In addition, the correlation between the return jump component and the volatility jump (Merton correlation jump) is not confirmed in the WTI data. Also, due to the negative leverage effect, negative shocks have stronger volatility effects than positive shocks in the crude oil market.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
rezvan hemati; musa khoshkalam khosroshahi
Abstract
Environmental degradation is one of the most important concerns in developing countries. One of the most important indicators whose study helps to understand the extent of the world's support for improving the quality of the environment is the ecological footprint (EF). EF is an indicator that shows ...
Read More
Environmental degradation is one of the most important concerns in developing countries. One of the most important indicators whose study helps to understand the extent of the world's support for improving the quality of the environment is the ecological footprint (EF). EF is an indicator that shows the environmental constraints and the extent of human encroachment on these constraints. Numerous factors such as energy consumption, etc. are effective on the EF, but on the one hand due to the effective role of economic freedom and governance in the EF, and on the other hand, due to the lack of interaction between these two variables on the EF in any domestic studies, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries during the period 1971-2017 and two econometric models (The first model: the effect of economic freedom and governance as independent variables on the EF and the second model: the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF) in the form of panel data method have been used. The results of the first model indicate that the effect of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries are positive (and significant) and negative (and significant), respectively, but the results of the second model estimate indicate that the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries is negative and significant.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
javad khajehtorab; sharareh majdzadeh tabatabaei; seyednematollah mosavi
Abstract
In the present study, the approach of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium was used in order to simulate the economic and welfare effects of the allocation of oil revenues in the Iranian economy. Accordingly, changes in the production index of different economic sectors, changes in consumption ...
Read More
In the present study, the approach of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium was used in order to simulate the economic and welfare effects of the allocation of oil revenues in the Iranian economy. Accordingly, changes in the production index of different economic sectors, changes in consumption and price levels in the form of 4 scenarios of different combinations of depositing oil revenues to the National Development Fund of Iran, and using the social accounting matrix (SAM) related to the year 2011 were considered. The results showed that by using different scenarios of oil revenue allocation, the highest growth of production and consumption of the studied sectors compared to the basic scenario of the fourth scenario (save 20% of oil revenues in the country's foreign exchange fund and invest 30% of the fund's resources in the industry) will be. Meanwhile, the highest rate of price reduction in the production sector is related to the fact that 20% of oil revenues are saved in the country's foreign exchange fund and no amount has been invested in the economic sectors. In fact, the increase in production and boom is due to the increase in investment in the industrial sector of inflation and will lead to the growth of prices of manufactured products. Therefore, by allocating the fund's resources in the industrial sector, the goal of economic growth and increasing household welfare will be achieved. In fact, due to the strong links between the industrial sector and other sectors, including agriculture and services, by investing to improve the productivity of the industrial sector, all economic sectors have benefited from this issue and by increasing production while growing demand for investment and increasing household consumption will bring greater welfare to consumers.
