Iranian Energy Economics

Abstract In the process of globalization, the interdependence between countries increases, and changes in economic policies introduce uncertainty shocks to both domestic and foreign economies. In oil-dependent countries, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study examines the impact of uncertainty in global economic policies and oil prices on Iraq's economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The research employs the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric model. The results indicate that an increase in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to a decrease in Iraq's economic growth in the short term, with this effect persisting in the long term. Conversely, a reduction in the uncertainty of global economic policies leads to an increase in Iraq's economic growth over both timeframes. Regarding oil prices, a reduction in uncertainty in the short term (at the first lag) fosters economic growth; however, at the second lag, it has a negative impact. In the long term, a decrease in oil price uncertainty contributes to an increase in economic growth. An increase in oil price uncertainty does not significantly affect economic growth in the short term; however, in the long term, it leads to a decline in Iraq's economic growth. These findings highlight the asymmetry in the effects of economic policies and oil prices on Iraq’s economic growth.

Abstract Today, almost 80% of the world's energy is produced from fossil fuels, which significantly release environmental pollution. Since economic growth in Iran is mostly achieved through fossil fuels, a study was conducted to explain the relationship between Iran's gross domestic product and total energy demand using the framework of the EKC, this study first highlights some points about pollution and energy consumption And then it deals with the sustainable development and EKC, in the experimental model part, ARDL model is estimated as the chosen method by conducting relevant tests, and then in the second part, using dynamic systems, the model is estimated period 2000-2045. The result indicates that Iran is in the first stage of the Kuznets curve and 59% of changes in energy demand are due to changes in GDP. For this purpose, the policy recommendation that can be considered in this article is education and public awareness of the dangers of using fossil fuels and investing in renewable systems, which on the one hand leads to economic growth and leads to the transition from the first stage of the EKC.

Abstract The industrial sector, as the largest consumer of fossil energy and a vital pillar of economic development, plays a crucial role in influencing economic growth and environmental changes. The present study aims to dynamically analyze the relationship between the uncertainty of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the industrial sector and Iran’s economic growth, while considering uncertainties in the available data and economic variables. Using data from the Central Bank of Iran and the Energy Balance Sheets, and applying a fuzzy modeling approach over the period 1991–2021, the study estimates the impact of industrial energy consumption, population, labor force, capital stock, industrial CO₂ emissions, and trade openness on economic growth. The main novelty of this study lies in integrating variable uncertainties into the dynamic analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. The findings reveal that labor force, capital stock, and industrial CO₂ emissions exert the most significant impacts on per capita GDP, with coefficients of 2.74, 2.022, and 2.32, respectively. Moreover, energy consumption shows a significantly positive effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 4.19e-15, while, at the lower bound with a membership degree of 0.9, industrial CO₂ emissions negatively affect economic growth with a coefficient of –0.82. Based on the results, it is recommended that carbon taxation policies and incentives for renewable energy adoption be implemented as strategies to reduce environmental uncertainties and promote sustainable economic growth.

Abstract Renewable energy is a crucial alternative energy source in terms of sustainable growth and climate change. This paper analyzes the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 26 developing countries over the period 1990–2020. The study employs the bootstrap panel causality test developed by Konya (2006) to account for cross-sectional dependence. Konya’s (2006) method is based on seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values.

The results indicate that the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth varies across the examined countries, manifesting both symmetric and asymmetric patterns depending on each country's specific conditions. In some countries, evidence of bidirectional causality between these two variables was observed, while in others, a unidirectional causal relationship was confirmed, either from renewable energy consumption to economic growth or vice versa. Moreover, the findings reveal that relying on aggregated data could alter the conclusions, highlighting the necessity of conducting causality analysis at the country level. These findings emphasize the impact of renewable energy policies on the economic growth of developing countries and provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating sustainable energy strategies.

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of investment in renewable energy on Iran's macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical information related to the period 1991-2022 was used. For this purpose, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method was used. The information used in this article was collected from the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Energy. The theoretical framework of the present study will be based on investment models, optimization and inter-sectoral balance. In this study, the effects of investment in the field of renewable energy through public and private companies are included in the model. The results obtained from the investment shock in the field of renewable energy indicated that investment in this sector had the greatest impact on the growth of economic added value in the industry, services, agriculture, and oil and gas sectors. Also, the obtained results indicate that in order to increase social welfare and achieve economic development, a 4-year investment period with a 50% growth in the field of renewable energy infrastructure in the country is necessary.

Abstract The purpose of this research is to investigate different levels of country risk and its role in the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran, during the period (1997-2021). In terms of purpose, this research is of applied type and in terms of causal-analytical method, and the method of collecting information is of documentary-library type. After calculating the threshold value of each variable, we analyzed the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth using the threshold distance of different country risks. The results indicate the non-linear effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under different risks in the country. This research is one of the first studies in Iran that analyzed the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth based on a risk-based approach. According to the regression model described in the current research, this research provides suggestions for developing a suitable strategic plan with the aim of specifying short-term and long-term goals, and future vision, as a road map for those involved.
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Abstract One of the goals of the green economy is to reduce the negative environmental effects caused by the use of natural resources in developing economies. Investigating the separation of economic growth from fossil fuels is a key task that has been addressed in few studies. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of economic freedom on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels. In this study, the method of estimating the model is based on panel data, which is in the period (2000-2020) and for "developing countries (Iran, Brazil, India and China) and developed countries (America, England, Germany and France)" has been done. The estimated models are presented in the form of multivariate linear regression models according to the research hypotheses. Based on the obtained results, the economic freedom variable had a positive and significant relationship with the dependent variable (economic growth rate). Therefore, for both groups of countries at the 95% confidence level, economic freedom had a positive and significant effect on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels

Abstract The current study deals with the effect of GDP, urban population and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in OPEC member countries. To show the details of his findings, in this study, using the panel data method, the effect of GDP, increase in urban population and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions for 13 OPEC member countries in the period of time, 1990 to 2019, was reviewed. The results show that GDP, urban population increase, and consumption of non-renewable fuels have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The general findings indicate that following the increase in gross domestic production and the industrialization of countries, we will also witness the growth of the urban population. Environmental pollution is mainly aggravated by rapid urbanization and industrialization, as well as economic growth and non-renewable energies in OPEC member countries, which are mainly developing countries, and have destructive effects on the environment. This study recommends that sustainable urbanization and economic growth should be promoted using green finance and clean energy sources. Also, the need to change energy consumption patterns from fossil fuels and move towards renewable energy sources should be supported among OPEC member countries

Abstract The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic and social factors on the emission of carbon dioxide, which has been used as a measure of environmental pollution in Iran for the period of 1352-1397. In order to measure the economic and social factors affecting environmental pollution, it is necessary to study the short-term and long-term relationship between fuel oil consumption, urbanization, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran. For this purpose, the autoregression model with extended distribution intervals (ARDL) was used. The results show that the error correction coefficient obtained in this model shows that in each period, 33% of the short-term failure error can be made to achieve a long-term comparison. According to the estimate, the increase in fuel oil consumption, urbanization, and economic growth have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions both in the short term and in the long term. Also, the long-term results indicate that with an increase of one percent of gross domestic production, fuel oil consumption and urban population increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.849, 0.166, and 1.566 percent, respectively. Therefore, the first step to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the country is to pay attention to the amount of fuel oil consumption, hence policies can be made to use alternative energies such as renewable energies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Abstract GDP is one of the factors affecting energy consumption and climate change. This study examines the impact of GDP on energy consumption in OPEC countries in two stages. In the first stage, based on the panel causality test, the causal relationship between GDP and energy consumption was investigated, and the results indicate a one-way causal relationship from GDP to energy consumption. In the second stage, using a dynamic panel threshold regression model, this study investigated the role of energy intensity (one of the important indicators of energy efficiency) in the relationship between energy consumption and the GDP of OPEC countries. The results showed that at values above the threshold level of energy intensity (7.27), GDP significantly increases energy consumption, while at values below this level, GDP has a positive and non-significant effect on energy consumption. Without considering the control variables, at values above the threshold level of energy intensity (6.91), GDP significantly increases energy consumption, while at values below this level, GDP has a negative and non-significant effect on energy consumption. In energy and environmental policy-making, paying attention to energy intensity can lead to sustainable economic growth. Also, the results of this study are related to the Kuznets Environmental Curve Hypothesis; at low-intensity energy levels, increased GDP does not necessarily lead to environmental damage.

Abstract This study examines the interrelationships of clean energy, domestic and foreign capital, economic growth, and environmental quality in a group of developing countries during 1995-2018. In this regard, the GMM method has been used. To estimate the impact of domestic and foreign capital development, three different indicators such as foreign direct investment, stock markets, and credits allocated to the private sector have been used. The results show that the increase in clean energy by one to two percent, the emission of carbon dioxide by four, and the increase of foreign direct investment by one percent have increased economic growth. On the other hand, economic growth, while increasing clean energy consumption by an average of 11 percent, has also increased carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the positive mutual relationship between clean energy and economic growth, fossil fuels are still used more in the selected countries. Clean energy projects have lower efficiency and higher financing than other energy supply projects. Therefore, in developing countries, due to a lack of enough capital, few investments are made in these projects.

Abstract More than 113 years have passed since the gradual formation of "oil-gas Iran" since the drilling rig in the number one well of Masjed-e-Soliman reached oil on May 25, 1908. The fact is that during this period, on the one hand, the wealth and income of natural oil and gas resources were not necessarily "fairly" distributed among all Iranians who are the main owners of these resources; on the contrary, in many cases, they have been distributed among the influential groups in the form of unjust government rents, and on the other hand, these resources have not been used as they should be in the service of the country's economic growth. Given these two facts, the two main problems of this research are: 1) Based on which value theory can the wealth and income of oil and gas resources be more fairly distributed among all Iranians? 2) How can such a fairer distribution be used to achieve high and sustainable economic growth? The research method is that by examining the basic features of common support schemes and reviewing the value bases of such schemes in the form of several theories of justice and with the pathology of those schemes, the implementation of a basic income plan (UBI) which is financed mainly through wealth and revenue from oil and gas resources, defended as a fairer and more efficient plan than current support schemes. In the following, the different methods of financing this project and the mechanisms of its impact on economic growth are examined. Finally, it is argued that during a virtuous circle, on the one hand, a "universal basic income institution" in addition to eradicating poverty, can lead to high and sustainable economic growth, and on the other hand, how this economic growth can continuously increase the amount of UBI for the current generation and future generations.

Abstract Energy consumption in the world is increasing for economic growth, and as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, which has destructive environmental effects, the consumption of fossil fuels has an increasing trend. Present study tries to find the effect of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on air pollution with respect to the moderating role of economic growth, utilizing the data of time series from 1990 to 2017 in Iran and with the generalized method of moments and in terms of some control variables such as energy efficiency coefficient and urbanization, the hypotheses were tested. Findings indicate that, the effect of renewable energy consumption in reducing carbon dioxide emissions (negative coefficient at a significant level of 10%) and the effect of non-renewable energy consumption in increasing carbon dioxide emissions (positive coefficient at a significant level of 5%). Also, the role of economic growth as a moderating variable on the relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is positive and on the relationship between non-renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is negative and significant. Developing investment and increasing the share of the renewable energy sector in the country along with improving energy efficiency and technology level can be effective in reducing air pollution.

Abstract Energy has always played a very important role in human life and is one of the factors that can make economic growth possible. Today, many countries are struggling to invest in new technologies by using renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, or water energy as their needed sources of energy, which, as compared to fossil fuels, generate lower environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the economic growth of the selected countries of the MENA region from renewable energy sources using the Panel Vector Autoregressive Model in the period of 1990-2015. The results of the study showed that the variable of the total energy produced from renewable sources has the largest share in explaining the changes in the economic growth of the countries under study and its explanatory value reaches 56% in the long run. Given the significant impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth, suitable policies for renewable energy are needed to achieve a high level of production and social welfare. In this regard, granting financial incentives, establishing a fund for renewable energy by the government, and creating conditions for developing the renewable energy industry in the country could be solutions

Abstract Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, we disentangled oil shocks and studied their impacts on OPEC’s GDP growth and inflation, using a Panel-VAR for 1994:1-2016:4. Our results highlight that among oil shocks, the oil price shocks stemming from the political risk of OPEC countries have the most significant impact on the OPEC's economic growth, while not having any significant impact on inflation of the countries. We also learned that oil supply shocks could also boost economic growth and increase inflation rates in OPEC countries, although these increases are not significant. Other oil price shocks will only lead to higher inflation in these countries without affecting OPEC's economic growth.

Abstract Development of renewable energy would help to achieve the goals of economic, social and ecological development which are considered as the most important factors in achieving sustainable development in each country. This article examines the impact of real economic growth per capita on the country's clean energy deals during the period 1967-2012 in Iran. To this end, the pattern Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Co-Integration method are employed to determine the presence of short and long-term relations among the variables. The results show that the speed of adjustment is relatively high error correction model and the model is able to adjust the 61% of short-term imbalance error, to achieve long-run equilibrium. According to the corresponding estimations, the relationship between real economic growth per capita and renewable energy consumption, combustible renewable and waste consumption and electrical energy consumption in both short-term and long-term is negative. Also Long-term results have showed a significant negative relationship between electrical energy consumption, renewable energy consumption combustible renewable and waste consumption and real economic growth per capita. So, in long- term, increasing one percent consumption of the mentioned variables, cause to decrease the real economic growth per capita to 0.71, 0.72 and 0.79 respectively.

Abstract Economic growth planning and policy making is one of the macrocosmic goals which it need to pay specific attention to energy and environmental sector and their relationship with production. Therefore, this study has conducted to investigate the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution using a Spatial Panel Simultaneous-Equations model for 9 developing countries during 2000-2011. Empirical results of this method show that energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in each country is affected by these factors in neighboring countries. The results of research confirm there exists bidirectional causality between energy consumption and environmental pollution, economic growth and environmental pollution. Thus, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Regarding to result of this study suggests to achieve the sustainable economic growth should be used tax tools for controlling the emissions of CO₂ and replacement of the renewable energies with fossil fuels.

Abstract This paper examines the effect of the abundant natural resources (oil and gas) on financial repression and economic growth through the income distribution channel. The three equations which are extracted from theoretical explanations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage least squares (3SLS) for the period 1352-1389. We have demonstrated the positive effects of natural resources on financial repression by raising the inequality. The results show that financial repression leads to lower economic growth rate, hence the main hypothesis of the study was supported, i.e. the effects of the abundant natural resources on economic growth and financial repression through the channel of distribution of income. We have also observed that the natural resource abundance have negative effects on economic growth (direct effect) and positive effects on inequality.

Abstract It is clear that any planning and policy making about economic growth as one of the macroeconomic purpose’s, need to special consideration to the environment and its relationship with production. therefore, in this study, we employ a maximum entropy Bootstrap to assessment the causality between carbon emissions and economic growth more accurate in comparison to conventional hypothesis tests based on asymptotic theory. We employ simulation based inference to investigate the causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Iran  for the 1973–2010 period, both in a bivariate and a multivariate framework by including energy consumption per capita, financial development and openness variables in the model. In bivariate model, Our results   indicate that there is uni-directional causality from GDP per capita to carbon emissions per capita while multivariate framework shows no evidence of a causal relation between carbon emissions and growth. Results indicate that there is uni-directional causality from GDP per capita to energy consumption per capita. So we can employ environmental policies without any reduction of economic growth.  

Abstract The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes.  For these reasons, present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367.1 -1389.4 using Markov switching model.  The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return, although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth, but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.

Abstract Economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic goals of most countries. It is therefore, of paramount importance to recognize the major factors that influence it. Financial development and trade openness are usually considered as two significant factors that affect economic growth in various ways. Using a vector error correction model (VECM), this study investigates the causality relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth in two major oil producing countries , Iran and Norway.  The study period for Iran is 1967-2009, and for Norway is 1967-2006.The ratio of liquidity to GDP and the ratio of bank credit to the private sector to GDP have been used as two financial development indices. The trade openness and economic growth have been illustrated using trade intensity index and the GDP per capita. Findings of the study indicate that financial development and trade openness are both significant cause of economic growth in Iran in the short run. There is also a bi-directional causality between both indicators of financial development and economic growth in the long run. In Norwegian economy it is indicated that there is a significant causal relationship between bank credit to the private sector and economic growth in the short-term, and there also is a bi-directional causality between bank credit to the private sector and trade intensity in Norway in the long- term. Therefore, it can be concluded that according to the findings of this study, practically there is the supply side view in Iran, while there is the demand side view in Norway.

Abstract Asymmetric effects of oil shocks mean the difference between the positive and negative effects of oil shocks. Empirical studies show that these asymmetric effects can affect economic growth in oil-exporting countries as well as importing countries. In this regard, this paper tries to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting countries (including Iran) during the period 1980-2011by using hidden panel Cointegration. This approach, in addition to analyzing the long-term non-liner relationship between the variables, has another important capability for modeling asymmetry between different variables. Firstly, it has been shown that there is a long relationship between cumulative positive and negative components in crude oil prices and GDP in these countries by using Kao panel co-integration (hidden co-integration verification). Then, their long- run asymmetric relationships are measured by using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). The results of this study show the negative effects of oil shocks are more than the positive effects on the economic growth of oil-exporting countries.

Abstract The causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth, as an imperative issue in energy economics, has been a well-studied topic. Previous studies in Iran have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks. In this study, both linear and nonlinear causality test are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran. The nonlinear causality test, applied here, is based on the conception of correlation integral (an estimator of spatial probability across time). In this study, we find evidence on a unidirectional linear and nonlinear causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. environmental pollution. On the basis of panel integration and co-integration tests, Stern (2004) and Perman and Stern (1999, 2003) have presented evidence and forcefully stated that the EKC hypothesis does not exist. In this paper by using fractional co-integration test, EKC is evaluated for 27 low middle income countries. The conclusions show according to classical co-integration test there is no co-integrated EKC based on HADRI statistics. Using fractional co-integration, evidences support a common EKC for countries: El Salvador, Nicaragua, Iran, Pakistan, Paraguay, Tunisia but our data does not give useful information about EKC existence.   fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#333333;mso-no-proof:no'>FARIMA) were applied using the daily oil price in order to forecast oil prices. To compare the forecast accuracy of the model, the prediction error criteria was used. The results showed that the performance of FARIMA is much better than the other two models.    

Abstract Most studies suggest a form of inverted U relationship between environmental quality and economic growth, entitled as "the environmental Kuzne's curve (EKC)" Given the importance of maintaining environmental quality along with economic growth, this study studies the level of water pollution and economic growth both in developing and developed countries during 2001-1980. Based on theoretical foundations of environmental EKC curve, as in addition to the income variable, the population variable, is also considered as an exogenous variable and the integration method is used for estimating the model. The results indicates that the economic conditions prevailing in both groups of countries are consistent with the EKC. Curve and it this curve. The turning point in developed countries is at 10,622 dollars based on statistical findings, most of the studied countries in this group have crossed the turning point. But as for developing countries, the turning point in this curve is estimated at approximately 901 dollars of national per capita income. Statistical analysis of existing data showed that many countries at this group still have not reached the turning point of the EKC curve and are far from it. Using the results, it seems necessary for the developing countries to adopt more cautious policies to grow and develop their economies, in order to promote the growth of national per capita income, as well as policies to improve quality of water resources, or at least prevent their contamination.

Abstract Countries efforts to achieve rapid economic growth and lack of adequate attention to environmental issues in recent years have caused serious damage to the countries environment. Hence, examining factors affecting the quality of environment is more important. This article aims to investigate the Impact of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment pollution in Iran from 1967-2007. This paper uses some econometric techniques, including Johansson approach and DOLS model to explore the influence of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment quality. The result of the analysis reveals a positive sign for the coefficients of economic growth, energy consumption and openness. Also the findings does not support the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and invironmental pollution.