Iranian Energy Economics

Abstract Resent emprical studies indicate that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. Also according to literature on economic growth that human capital, education, technologcal progress and institutional  quality are effective factors on economic growth. This essay using Dynamic Panel Data and GMM method, investigates the Resource Curse Hypothesis and then analyzes the rope of effective factors and their trace on RCH. Among several effective factors, in this paper we focus on Human Capital and Institutional Quality. Elected sample for this study is two groups of petroleum exporters' countries: A) Major petroleum exporters and B) Other petroleum exporters. The analysis for the period 1995-2008. Results indicate that Resource Curse is observed in major Petroleum Exporting Countries. Results confirm the importance of low institutional quality and inadequate investments on human capital in the occurrence of a resource curse. Therefore our finding confirm natural resource abundance may have a negative impact on growth occurs if considered in isolation, but a positive direct impact on growth if other explanatory variables, such as human capital, institutional quality, openness and etc, are also studied.  

Abstract This study investigates the Granger causality relationship between energy consumption, carbon emission and industrial value added, including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model. We found that energy consumption is Granger cause of carbon dioxide emission and industrial value added. Also results of variance analysis model suggests that the long term effects of variables on their own swings gradually declines, and share of other variables increases.

Abstract   The purpose of present research is to estimate and evaluate the nature of  relationship between environmental performance and economic growth in developed countries. Studies about this issue have emphasized the impact of environmental performance on economic growth. But in this study the impact of economic growth on improvements in environmental performance is investigated, which is the point of distinction of this study in comparison many studies about this issue. In present research, relationship between environmental performance and economic growth in developed countries is analyzed by using panel data econometric methods for 2006- 2008. The results show that economic growth in developed countries on environmental performance has a negative impact in the interval studied so that, increase economic growth in these countries, may load to environmental degradation.

Abstract The greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activities is considered the main factor in global warming. This subject is of greater importance in OPEC countries because of the dependency of OPEC economies on fossil fuels and their economic vulnerability in relation with climate changes conventions and the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, besides analyzing the extent of compliance with EKC in the OPEC and OECD countries, the most important factors influencing CO₂ emission will be examined and also the policy implications of KEC for Iran will be studied. The findings indicate that firstly, the inverse U shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve is not confirmed for all the studied countries, including Iran. Secondly, manufacturing value added to GDP (as an industrial development index), trade to GDP (as the openness index), and energy consumption to GDP (the energy intensity index) are found to be the main macroeconomic determinants.    

Abstract This paper has examined the long memory of oil market volatility. For this purpose, the paper has employed different types of long run ARCH models including FIGARCH-BBM, FIGARCH-chung, FIEGARCH, FIAPARCH-BBM and FIAPARCH-chung and short run ones including GARCH, EGARCH, GJR AND APARCH with three different assumptions of normal, t-student and generalized error distributions. Results obtained from all long run models indicate the volatility persistence, i.e. the long memory of oil market volatility. Furthermore, with regard to Akaike’s information criterion, FIAPARCH-chung with assumption of t-student distribution has the best performance. Also, according to Schwarz Criterion, FIGARCH-chung model with assumption t-student distribution is the best model in modeling volatility of oil market. Based on the results, long run models considering long memory property of volatility indicate a better performance than the short run ones. Finally, based on obtained results, asymmetric distributions including t-student and GED are found to be more suitable than normal distribution.

Abstract Almost in the entire history of 20^th century, vertically integrated monopolistic companies have controlled the electricity industry. In this traditional method, these firms were the only service provider in their territory; including power generation, transition, distribution and retail. Necessity of economic efficiency deployment, resulted in structural reform in electricity industry that has created variety of subjects such as restructuring, unbundling, deregulation, reregulation and privatization. Electricity industry restructuring means breaking up vertical monopolistic control of governments on industry through unbundling into competitive and uncompetitive sectors. Electricity distribution sector  essentially has natural monopoly characteristics therefore is not competitive and should work under regulation. The main objective of this research is to find the most efficient incentive regulation model for electricity distribution sector of Iran by which social welfare function may be maximized. Price and revenue cap models are the most prevalent incentive schemes that have been compared with each other. To design this model, cost function of 38 electricity distribution companies has been estimated and marginal cost of each company has been assumed  as the first best price. Efficiency of these companies has been calculated by means of data envelop analysis method. Afterward 2 price regulation schemes has been modeled for years 1388 until 1390. Finally, residential electricity demand function has been estimated by means of autoregressive distributed lags method. Calculation of the difference between total welfare of each model with the first best price; indicates that without considering air pollution externalities, price cap scheme maximizes total welfare. However, considering the externalities, revenue cap model is found to have better effect on total welfare.

Abstract When the exchange rate of the dollar fluctuates, a  disequilibrium is created in the market for crude oil. This will be reflected in altered Demand for crude oil and an altered oil price and oil revenue. A depreciation of the dollar may lead to an increase in Demand for crude oil in other currency zones (Euro, Yuan, zudian Rupie, etc). In this paper we investigate the Long-term relationship between oil price and oil exchange rates oil Import china and India by using a nominal monthly from2006:1 to 2010:12.The results show that nominal depreciation is us Dollar vs. Euro and Chinese Yuan has a significantly positive effect on OPEC oil prices. Whereas the change of Dollar value va. Indian Rupie has no significant effect on oil prices.

Abstract This research investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Iran. A multivariate model including economic growth, energy consumption, carbon emissions, capital stock, labor force, and urban population is used to determine eventual causality between variables according to Toda-Yamamoto Approach. Results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality relationship between gross domestic product and CO₂ emissions. Also, there is a uni-direction causality relationship from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions. Finally, the results maintain that the EKC hypothesis for GDP and CO₂ emissions is relevant in the period of study.