Teimour Mohamadi; Abdol Rasoul Ghasemi; Amir Nekounam
Abstract
This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such ...
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This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such as the crude oil and natural gas prices have inflammations and severe fluctuations over time that conventional linear regressions do not fit these fluctuations. The regime Switching Model provides a flexible and dynamic framework for nonlinear models and sudden reciprocal transfers. In this paper, by using the Markov switching model framework, the impact of the crude oil price on natural gas price has been measured during the period of the January 1992 to June 2017. The results show that in some regimes the price of crude oil has a direct effect on the price of natural gas and in some other ones has a reversible effect. In Europe, the first lag of crude oil price has a reverse effect for 1 month, and 18 months of direct effect, and the second lag of oil price in both regimes has a direct effect on the natural gas price. However for Asia in both regimes, the impact of oil price on natural gas price is straight and the prices are in the first regime for 28 months and 26 months under the second regime.
mortaza khorsandi; Atefeh Taklif; ali faridzad; Ali Taherifard; ali saberi
Abstract
The choice of contract type in oil fields has always been one of the main and problematic challenges in Iran and elying in making decisions in this regard leads to a dely or non-investment. On the other hand, one of the ways to recognize the components of bargaining power is to recognize and ...
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The choice of contract type in oil fields has always been one of the main and problematic challenges in Iran and elying in making decisions in this regard leads to a dely or non-investment. On the other hand, one of the ways to recognize the components of bargaining power is to recognize and evaluate various types of international contracts. Therefore, in thiss study, while introducing the fiscal model of the contractual agreement concluded in Iran, as well as a combination of contracts for participation in traditional production in Azerbaijan with Joint venture, has been applied to financial simulation in Duroud oil field. After explaining the optimization problem using the generalized reduction gradient method, the optimal production path from the perspective of the parties to the contract is estimated andcompared with the production path specified in the buy back contract. The results show that the use of share-based indicators of project revenues and the net present value of a project for evaluate of oil contracts can be misleading. The oil production path agreed in the Buy back contract is higher than the optimal production path from the perspective of both sides of the combined contract. Tthis is due to the desire of the International Oil Company to rapidly capture capex and remuneration fee in the shortest possible time. Increase in recoverable reserves due to gas injection (presented in MDP), which was approved in buy back contract is less than its optimal amount from the viewpoint of Joint venture in a hybrid contract. This indicates that the proposed hybrid contract is closer to the Maximum Effective Rate and Maximum Final Recovery from Oilfields than the conventional buy back agreement in Iran.
Reza Darisavi Bahmanshir; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of technology changes and environmental constraints on the estimated oil demand function of non-OECD countries that import oil from Iran based on symmetric and asymmetric specification. For this purpose, data from the 1970 to 2014 period were used ...
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of technology changes and environmental constraints on the estimated oil demand function of non-OECD countries that import oil from Iran based on symmetric and asymmetric specification. For this purpose, data from the 1970 to 2014 period were used by non-OECD non-OECD oil importers from Iran, including Russia, South Africa, China, and India. Given the first-order difference between the variables studied, the modified least squares method (FMOLS) was used to estimate. The results of this study showed that imposing environmental limitations on carbon dioxide reductions in oil-importing countries from Iran could reduce oil demand from oil-importing countries from Iran. Also, the results showed that improving technology in the selected countries of the oil importer from Iran will increase the demand for these oil products.
Shahryar Zaroki; Mani Motameni; Amirhossein Fathollahzadeh
Abstract
Assessing the value of petrochemical industries on the one hand as strategic industries in the provision of raw materials of other parts and on the other hand, given the high weight of the formation of the stock market in Tehran, it is important. This industry, while influencing developments in other ...
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Assessing the value of petrochemical industries on the one hand as strategic industries in the provision of raw materials of other parts and on the other hand, given the high weight of the formation of the stock market in Tehran, it is important. This industry, while influencing developments in other markets, especially the oil market, which has a significant impact on other markets, in particular the financial market. The stock prices of the petrochemicals in the stock market are heavily dependent on the price of petrochemical products, as well as the high dependence on oil price changes on global markets. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship between petrochemical price and oil price requires an asymmetrical model. In this study, the effect of oil price on value of the petrochemical industry in asymmetric shape in 2008-2017 periods daily basis has been analyzed using model Shin et al (2014). For this purpose, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach has been used. The findings indicate that these industries could be the channel for transferring global oil price fluctuations to the total stock market in Tehran. In the short term, anonymity is confirmed by the impact of the oil price on the value of the petrochemical industry. As oil prices decline, the value of petrochemicals decreases, but with increasing oil prices there will not be an increase in the value of petrochemicals. In the long run, oil prices are ............
Omid Motamedi sede; Bakhtiar Ostadi; ali hussein zadeh kashan; mohamad reza amin naseri
Abstract
The deregulation in power market is lead to competition among market participant to increase efficiency. In electricity market generation is the best candidate for iterance in competition to improve productivity and efficiency in resource allocation and offer lowest price by highest quality will be yielded. ...
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The deregulation in power market is lead to competition among market participant to increase efficiency. In electricity market generation is the best candidate for iterance in competition to improve productivity and efficiency in resource allocation and offer lowest price by highest quality will be yielded. In the pool-based electricity market, every Genco submits a bidding price in ten step offer to the Independent System Operator (ISO) for every hour of the next day. One of the most important parameters affecting the profitability of Genco’s and their bidding pattern is the cost of energy generation. Therefore, in this paper, taking into account the costs of fuel consumption, depreciation, maintenance, operation and utilization and other costs as factors affecting the production cost. In this article artificial intelligence algorithms applied to calculate the energy generation cost function at different levels of production (base load, partial load, and full load), broken down by fuel type. According to the results, the average cost per kilowatt-hour of energy with gas fuel is 398 Rials and diesel fuel is 500 Rials
Hossein Mehrabi boshr abadi; zeynolabedin Sadeghi; hamideh shojaadini
Abstract
The energy and economy interactions are so advanced that they are in today's economic literature, the amount of energy resources in countries, the amount of primary energy supply and consumption per capita and the per capita kilowatt-hours of electricity consumption have become one of the indicators ...
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The energy and economy interactions are so advanced that they are in today's economic literature, the amount of energy resources in countries, the amount of primary energy supply and consumption per capita and the per capita kilowatt-hours of electricity consumption have become one of the indicators for comparing the level of development of countries. Fossil fuels cause social costs through environmental pollution and the phenomenon of global warming; the average solar radiation of Kerman daily has 5.2 kilowatt-hours per square meter per day, which has the potential to use solar energy in various industrial and household sectors. The purpose of this article is to assess the economic and environmental assessment of photovoltaic systems in providing electricity to a commercial tower with an average consumption of 32000 kilowatt-hours of electricity per day in Kerman using a life-cycle cost method. In the first scenario, all system costs are paid by the consumer, and in the second scenario, it is assumed that 50% of the initial investment cost was paid by the government, and the rest would be in the form of a loan at a rate of 2% with the repayment period of ten years old. The results show that the use of photovoltaic systems in order to produce electricity under the first scenario does not have economic justification, but with the support of the government, this scheme has economic justification.
