Fatemeh Hajisami; Mohammod Hossin Mahdavi Adeli; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security ...
Read More
Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security in its consuming countries have caused besides oil, its substitutes find specific importance. Development and extraction of unconventional resources on one hand have made changes in reservoirs ranking in different areas of the world and has weakened the dependency of consuming countries and on the other hand, it has affected the changing trend of oil price. In this respect, the present study investigates the causal relationship between oil price and supplying unconventional oil and gas during time period of 2000-2015. Two techniques named Granger technique and Toda and Yamamoto technique have been used to investigate the causal relationship. The results of the research show that in all studying period (2000-2015) the unconventional supply is the strong and direct cause for oil price and the indirect and weak price are introduced as the causes of unconventional supply. Also, based on the results, the strong impact of financial markets on the supply of unconventional resources and oil prices has been achieved. On the other hands the results show that unconventional supply will affect the supply of OPEC in the long term (2000-2015). Therefore, this achievement for OPEC countries, as well as Iran, can be used as a result of a strategic change in production policy.
saeed shavalpour; Elahe Kaviani
Abstract
The paper investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on the installed capacity of wind energy in developing countries in comparison with the impact of economies of scale and technical learning. To this end, we used rolling regression analysis and data from 2003 to 2015 to calculate annual technical ...
Read More
The paper investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on the installed capacity of wind energy in developing countries in comparison with the impact of economies of scale and technical learning. To this end, we used rolling regression analysis and data from 2003 to 2015 to calculate annual technical learning rates. Using the panel data regression and autoregressive model based on panel data we analyzed the effect of oil price fluctuations on wind energy installed capacity as the most advanced renewable energy in developing countries. The results show that oil price changes in the long run have a positive but limited impact on the development of renewable energy in developing countries. Oil price shocks, although in the short term and driven by the incentive of developing countries to transfer higher-tech technologies to renewable energy can not in the long term alone, guarantee the development of renewable energy in these countries
Hadi Dibavand; Ali Taherifard; Ali Faridzad; Atefeh Taklif; mohammad mahdi bahrololoum
Abstract
IRAN`s new petroleum contract is a new generation of service contract which aimed to fix bugs from Buy-Back model. In this model some incentives have inserted to increase contractors' motivations. In this study, we consider fiscal differences and revenue division of the two models in the case of phases ...
Read More
IRAN`s new petroleum contract is a new generation of service contract which aimed to fix bugs from Buy-Back model. In this model some incentives have inserted to increase contractors' motivations. In this study, we consider fiscal differences and revenue division of the two models in the case of phases 4 & 5 of the South Pars gas field. This study is conducted by fiscal simulation for two mentioned models and comparison the results. It is concluded that, government revenue in Buy-Back model throughout the period of production in phases 4 & 5 is bigger around 29% and 11% respectively in regard of the net present value and the discounted net present value. Also, if in Buy-Back model, production decline starts at the first year after fiscal settlement with contractor by the rate of more than 3% yearly, then it is better for the government to employ new contract model instead of Buy-Back model regarding revenue
Sharareh Kavosi; Mohammad Ali Falahi; Mohammad Javad Razmi
Abstract
In regulating oil contracts applying the appropriate contractual framework is necessary to meets the interests of both parties and maximize the absorption of foreign investment and advanced technology. In terms of distributing benefits between parties, the key element is the contract optimum flexibility. ...
Read More
In regulating oil contracts applying the appropriate contractual framework is necessary to meets the interests of both parties and maximize the absorption of foreign investment and advanced technology. In terms of distributing benefits between parties, the key element is the contract optimum flexibility. Flexibility of financial regime in buy back contracts, participation in production and Iran new oil contracts through simulation of the financial model using Excel software and Visual Basic programming language under two rigorous and conventional scenarios has been studied for the first t in this manuscript. In rigorous scenario the parameters of buy back contract between Iran national oil company and Shell Co. and parameters of two other contracts are estimated in such a way that original and achieved results are the same. Then, the effect of the estimated parameters on the distribution of gross income and the efficiency of the parties is investigated and with the aim of analyzing the degree of flexibility of contracts, the sensitivity of the efficiency and receipts of the parties to the changing price and capital costs is studied. Results showed financial regime in participation contracts allow the parties to coordinate the contents and structure of the contract with its benefits. While some of the inefficient tools of buy back and Iran new oil contracts have led to a lack of optimal flexibility in changing economic conditions.
Younes Nademi; Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi
Abstract
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of ...
Read More
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of sanctions on the unemployment rate in Iran's economy. To this end, the effect of positive and negative oil price shocks and the intensity of sanctions on Iran's unemployment rate during the period 1980-2015 was investigated using Markov switching method. The results of this study show that the positive impact of oil prices has had a negative effect on unemployment and has led to a reduction in unemployment and, in contrast to the negative impact of oil prices, has had a positive and increasing effect on unemployment. Also, the results of the unemployment model estimation indicate that the increase in the intensity of sanctions has had an increasing impact on unemployment. Finally, Iran’s economy is on average 2.8 years in the high unemployment regime and 1.4 years in the low unemployment regime that indicates the persistence of high unemployment rate in Iran's economy
Abdolsadeh Neisy; Teymour Mohammadi; Sara Azimi; Akram Mohammadi
Abstract
Crude oil commercial stocks are one of the main components of the oil market, and its fluctuations are important in the analysis of the oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the unprecedented accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks according to structural shocks and convenience ...
Read More
Crude oil commercial stocks are one of the main components of the oil market, and its fluctuations are important in the analysis of the oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the unprecedented accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks according to structural shocks and convenience yield, since the onset of crude oil prices decline. In this study, the effect of structural shocks on fluctuations of crude oil commercial stocks was analyzed in the form of a structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) over the period from 2006 to 2016. Also, for the first time, convenience yield is calculated using the inverse problem method. This paper has two innovations. First, it is the first time that convenience yield is calculated in the oil market using the inverse problem method. Second, for the first time, the dynamics of crude oil commercial stocks are analyzed expanding Killian’s SVAR Model (2009).The results show that from late 2014 onwards, mostly crude oil supply shocks and crude oil inventory demand shocks have contributed to oil commercial accumulation. Also results show that WTI futures term structure (spread) has been in contango based on the negative net convenience yield since October 2014 and has led to accumulating more crude oil commercial stocks with speculative purposes.
