Iranian Energy Economics

Abstract One of the main ways of domesticizing technology in oil industry is conditional contract for transfer of technology from international oil companies. However, over the past years the Iranian oil industry has made a little success in this regard and presently in Iranian new petroleum contract (IPC) as an alternative to buy back contracts aims to acquire and transfer modern technologies and localize it by collaboration of international oil companies with domestic companies approved by the National Iranian Oil Company, by making some changes in the type, terms and nature of contract. But what is more important than technology transfer is consideration to the obtained results compared with decisions made on the technology transfer of a contract. Thus, evaluation the risk of technology transfer play a clear and prominent role in the future sustainable development of Iranian oil industry. In this study, in addition to the study on buy back and IPC contracts from technology transfer point of view, the risks of technology transfer are detected in IPC contract and discussed by reviewing experts’ opinions. Next, by using FMEA parameters, identified risks are scored and for each RPN is calculated and finally they are prioritized. The highest priority of risk was given to the negative results of oil engineers and experts separation from the National Iranian Oil Company (RPN=576), followed by the effect of the presence of international oil companies in the destruction of the endogenous growth of national oil industry (RPN=448). Considering the high rate of risk in most identified risks, control measures were presented according to experts’ opinions in order to reduce the level of the risks.

Abstract In order to estimate the direct rebound effect of improvement in electricity consumption efficiency in the residential urban areas in Iran, price elasticity of demand for electrical energy by AIDS model and the social and economic characteristics of households are used in this study. This model is estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) analysis of pool data on nearly 180 million urban households in the country during the period 1394 to 1385. The results show that direct rebound effect of efficiency improvement of electricity use in the residential urban areas in Iran is equal to 81% which is considerably higher compared to efficiency improvement rebound effect of other energies used by household. The calculation of direct rebound effect among income groups also shows that the effect among wealthy households is high. This means that the efficiency of electricity consumption improvement, has less saving effect in high-income groups than low and moderate income ones.

Abstract The act of planning in order to reach optimum production from crude oil reserves with emphasizing on technical limitations and economic modeling and forecasting, is known as a necessity to earn the maximum profit from oil export incomes and providing national intertemporal interests for oil producing and exporting countries. This study estimates the optimal trend of crude oil production from south Azadegan Iranian oil field by the metaheuristic algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) on a thirty-year period. The concept of maximum efficient rate (MER) is employed to reach the best simulation of technical and physical field properties and moreover, the three price scenarios and two discount rate scenarios are used to apply the economic dynamics of crude oil world market. The results show that applying EOR programs simultaneously during the production by gas injection into the anticline of SARVAK reservoir, proven reserve of the field can be increased up to 6 billion barrels in this period. It also increases the cumulative production up to 3 billion barrels during the simulation period which was about 1.4 billion barrels based on the present RMDP

Abstract This research is modeling third generation of buy back oil contracts by considering a double moral hazard and employing Cubb-Douglas production function. The result shows that buy-back oil contracts are not in the first best or second best in double moral situation. Ove to this type of contracts is a cost plus contract and the payoff of the contractor is fixed, in double moral hazard the production is affected by the level of action of both parties, for nearing to the optimum point. Hence, the contract should be the long-term and the pay off of the project should be shared between parties.

Abstract Despite self-replenishing nature and lack of negative external effects of new energies, the energies entail higher costs than the conventional energy resources. The governments cannot afford these extra costs, and it needs to take part the public. This study examines extent of public participation in the funding of these costs. The study employed the double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) contingent valuation (CV) method. We release 400 questionnaires under five corresponding prices. Two cost-related questions were asked from each participant (once twice the original price, and once half of that). The interviewees determined the extra cost they would incur, taking into account seven factors, namely: regional economy, demand for electricity, environmental considerations, diplomatic relations, safety, ethics, and the economy.  The results suggest a willingness-to-pay of 46360 Rials (≈1.2USD) per month. The findings also indicate that the items including willingness to new energies, importance of environment and influence of the energies have the highest effect on the willingness of payment.

Abstract Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran since 2010. Since energy additionaly to labor and capital is one of the important inputs in production, running this rule with increasing energy price, affects manufacturing industries due to the type of energy and industry. In this research, the impacts of price liberalization on electricity efficiency have evaluated. Partial adjustment model, generalized method of moment and energy intensity measure are applied to this purpose. Data are collected from Statistical Center of Iran during 1995-2013. The research innovations are: using a partial adjustment model in evaluating efficiency, assessment whole industrial groups, and the period of research. The results show that in 95 percent level of confidence, the Iranian manufacturing industries are significantly flexible for changing the use of electricity. But the electricity efficiency has gotten worse after running the rule. In general, apposite of expectations, targeting subsidies rule has failed to improve electricity efficiency at least in short run.