Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 M.Sc. Student of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
Abstract
Pollutants emissions intensity in Iran which is mainly originated from energy consumption is higher than those of the global one. In this context, the current study aims at investigating emissions intensity determinants in the Iranian economy. To get the objective, decomposition analysis (index decomposition technique) was applied to decompose the energy intensity to its components. Then, the determinants of emissions intensity were examined using the regression model. The selected pollutants are NOx, SO2, CO, CO2. The data were related to 1367-96 (1988-2017). The results for all pollutants revealed that emission coefficient (emission per unit of energy) and energy intensity in services and manufacturing sectors have the highest contribution to emissions intensity. The findings suggested that the manufacturing sector plays a central role in SO2 emissions and a 1% increase in emission coefficient and energy intensity in the sector will increase emissions intensity by 0.6 and 0.5%, respectively. The services sector has a more important role in the emissions of the remaining pollutants and the corresponding values are 0.8% and 0.45-0.9%, respectively. Furthermore, urbanization could increase emissions intensity significantly. However, economy openness failed to affect emissions intensity significantly.
.
Keywords
Main Subjects
ابونوری، عباسعلی و نیکبان، آزاده. (1388). عوامل موثر بر شدت انرژی به روش دیویزیا: مطالعه موردی سیمان تهران. مدل سازی اقتصادی، 7، 77-92.
اسدپور، احمدعلی. (1396). اثرآزاد سازی تجاری بررشد اقتصادی شهرهای ایران 1393–1360. جغرافیایی سرزمین، 55، 17-36.
امینی، علیرضا و مرادزاده، سلاله. (1394). تحلیل تاثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر نرخ بیکاری: (مطالعه موردی کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه). فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی، 9، 77-93.
آرمن، سید عزیز و تقی زاده، سمیرا. (1392). بررسی عوامل موثر بر شدت انرژی در صنایع کارخانه ای ایران. اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 8، 1-20.
باستانزاد، حسین و نیلی، فرهاد. (1384). تحلیل سیاستی قیمتگذاری حامل‌های انرژی در اقتصاد ایران. تحقیقات اقتصادی، 68، 226-201.
بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. (1396). پایگاه اطلاعاتی بانک مرکزی. بانک اطلاعات سریهای زمانی، بازیابی شده از http://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx
برقی اسکویی، محمدمهدی. (1387). آثار آزادسازی تجاری بر انتشار گازهای گلخانهای در منحنی زیستمحیطی کوزنتس. تحقیقات اقتصادی، 82، 1-21.
بهبودی، داوود، فلاحی، فیروز، و برقی گلعذاتی، اسماعیل. (1389). عوامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی موثر بر سرانه انتشار دیاکسیدکربن در ایران (1383-1346). تحقیقات اقتصادی، 90، 1-17.
شریفی، علی مراد، صادقی، مهدی، نفر، مهدی، و دهقان شبانی، زهرا. (1387). تجزیه شدت انرژی در ایران. پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران، 35، 79-110.
عزیزی، زهرا، فریدزاد، علی، و خورسندی، مرتضی. (1394). نقش قیمت در اثرگذاری غیرخطی عوامل موثر بر شدت انرژی در ایران. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 17، 98-67.
فرج زاده، زکریا. (1391). اثرات زیست محیطی و رفاهی اصلاح سیاست‌های تجاری و انرژی در ایران (پایان نامه دکتری، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران).
فرجزاده، زکریا. (1394). شدت انرژی در اقتصاد ایران: اجزا و عوامل تعیینکننده. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 15، 98-55.
موسویان، سیدمهدی، تکانلو کریمی، زهرا، صادقی، سید کمال، و محسنپور عبادالهان، کویچ. (1397). بررسی اثر مخارج دولت و سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی بر شدت انرژی در صنایع کارخانهای استانهای ایران: رویکرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 28، 184-157.
وزارت نیرو. (1396). دفتر برنامهریزی کلان برق و انرژی بانک اطلاعات انرژی. ترازنامه انرژی.
Abounoori, A., & Nikban, A. (2009). A Research on Factors, Affecting Intensity of Energy Use, based on DIVISIA Model. Economic Modelling, 3(1(7)), 77-92. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=198794. [In Persian]
Acheampong, A. O., & Boateng, E. B. (2019). Modelling carbon emission intensity: Application of artificial neural network. Journal of Cleaner Production, 225, 833-856.
Alam, S., Fatima, A., and Butt, M. S. (2007). Sustainable development in Pakistan: the context of energy consumption demands and environmental degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18, 825–837.
Amini, A., & Moradzadeh, S. (2015). Analyze The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Unemployment: A Case Study of Selected Developing Countries. Journal of Financial Economics (Financial Economics and Development), 9(31), 77-93. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=518485. [In Persian]
Andersson, F. A., & Karpestam, P. (2013). Co2 emissions and economic activity: Short-and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity. Energy Policy, 61, 1285-1294.
Ang, B.W. (2015). LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation. Energy Policy, 86, 233–238.
Armen, S., Taghizadeh, S. (2013). Assessment of Effective Factors on Energy Intensity in Iran's Industrial Manufacturing. Iranian Energy Economics, 2(8), 1-20. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=393326. [In Persian]
Assadpour, A. (2017). The effect of trade liberalization on the economic growth of Iranian cities (1981-2014). Geographical Journal of Territory, 14(55), 17-36. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=664221. [In Persian]
Azizi, Z., Faridzad, A., Khorsandi, M. (2016). The Role of Price on the Nonlinear Effectiveness of Energy Intensity Determinants in Iran. Iranian Energy Economics, 5(4), 67-98. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2017.7166. [In Persian]
Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: John Wiley& Sons Ltd.
Barghi Oskouei, M. (2008). The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Greenhouse Gases (CO2Emission) in EKC. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 43(1), 1-21. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=113358. [In Persian]
Bastanzad, H., & Nili, F. (2005). Policy Goals of Setting Prices of Energy Carriers in IRANs Economy. Tahghighat-E-Eghtesadi, (68), 201-226. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=22017. [In Persian]
Behbudi, D., Fallahi, F., Barghi, E. (2010). The Economical and Social Factors Effecting on CO2 Emission in Iran (1976-2004). Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 90(45), 1-17.
Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (1396). Central Bank Database. Time series database. Retrieved from http://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx
Chen, W., Meng, J., Han, X., Lan, Y., & Zhang, W. (2019). Past, present, and future of biochar. Biochar, 1, 75-87.
Dong, F., Yu, B., Hadachin, T., Dai, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, S., and Long, R. (2018a). Drivers of carbon emission intensity change in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 129, 187-201.
Dong, K., Hochman, G., Zhang, Y., Sun, R., Li, H., and Liao, H. (2018b). CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: Empirical evidence across regions. Energy Economics, 75, 180-192.
Fan, Y., Lui, L. C., & Wu, G. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emission using STIRPAT model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 4, 377– 395.
Farajzadeh, Z. (2018). Emissions tax in Iran: Incorporating pollution disutility in a welfare analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 186, 618-631.
Farajzadeh, Z., and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2015). Economic and environmental analyses of Iranian energy subsidy reform using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Energy for Sustainable Development, 27, 147-154.
Farajzadeh, Z., and Nematollahi, M. A. (2018). Energy intensity and its components in Iran: Determinants and trends. Energy Economics, 73, 161-177.
Farajzadeh, Z., Zhu, X., and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2017). Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts. Economic Modelling, 63, 75-85.
Farajzadeh, Z. (2016). Energy Intensity in the Iranian Economy: Components and Determinants. Iranian Energy Economics, 4(15), 55-98. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=607018. [In Persian]
Farajzadeh, Z. (2012). Environmental and Welfare Impacts of Trade and Energy Policy Reform in Iran. Ph.D. Thesis, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. In Persian]
Han, X., Cao, T., & Sun, T. (2019). Analysis on the variation rule and influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emission intensity in China's urbanization construction. Journal of Cleaner Production, 238, 117-958.
Herrias, M., Caudros, A., & Orts, V. (2013). Energy intensity and investment ownership across Chinese province. Energy Economics, 36, 286-298.
Jones, D. (1991). How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries. Energy Policy, 19(7), 621-630.
Lin, S., Zhao, D., & Marinova, D. (2009). Analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: Evidence from pooled Mean Group. Economic Letters, 82(1), 121-126.
Marrero, G. (2010). Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and energy mix in Europe. Energy Economics, 32, 1356-1363.
Mousavian, S., Karimi Takanlu, Z., sadeghi, S., Pourebadollahan Covich, M. (2018). Energy Intensity in Iranian Provincial Manufacturing Industries; Investigating the Effects of Government Expenditures and Foreign Direct Investment Using Spatial Econometric Models. Iranian Energy Economics, 7(28), 157-184. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2019.9842. [In Persian]
Pan, X., Kamal Uddin, Md., Ai, B., Pan, X., & Saima, U. (2019). Influential factors of carbon emission intensity in OECD countries: Evidence from symbolic regression. Journal of Cleaner Production, 220, 1194-1201.
Poumanyvong, P., and Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70, 434-444.
Rodríguez, M., & Pena-Boquete, Y. (2017). Carbon intensity changes in the Asian dragons: Lessons for climate policy design. Energy Economics, 66, 17-26.
Sharifi, A., Sadeghi, M., Nafar, M., dehghan shabani, Z. (2008). Decomposition of Energy Intensity in the Iranian Manufacturing Industries. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 11(35), 79-110. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=143817. [In Persian]
Shahbaz, M., Shahzad, S.J.H., Ahmad, N., and Alam, S. (2016). Financial development and environmental quality: The way forward. Energy Policy, 98, 353-364.
Song, F., & Zheng, X. (2012). What drives the change in China energy intensity: Combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level. Energy Policy, 51, 445-453.
Taylor, L., Rezaei, A., Kumar, R., Barbosa-Filho, N. H., & Carvalho, L. (2014). Wage increase, transfers, and the socially determined income distribution in the USA. Working papers Series 11, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
Tsai. S.F. (2014). Analysis of influencing factors on regional carbon emission intensity in China-based on empirical research with provincial panel data. Journal of Sustainable Development, 7 (3), 83-95.
Wang, C., Chen, J., and Zhou, J. (2005). Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China. Energy Economics, 30, 73–83.
Wang, H., Ang, B.W., and Su, B. (2017). Assessing drivers of economy-wide energy use and emissions: IDA versus SDA. Energy Policy, 107, 585–599.
Wang, J., and Zhang, K. (2014). Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in different sectors in China. Energy, 65, 605-611.
Wang, Q., Wu, S. D., Zeng, Y., and Wu, B. (2016). Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different provinces of China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 1563-1579.
Wei, Y.M., Liu, L.C., Fan, Y., and Wu, G. (2008). China Energy Report: CO2 Emissions Research. Science Press, Beijing, China.
World Bank, (2016). Data. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?locations=1W
World Bank, (2018a). Data. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?locations=IR
World Bank, (2018b). Data. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=IR-1W.
World Bank, (2019). Data. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=OE
Wu, L., Kaneko, S., and Matsuoka, S. (2005). Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China's energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: The relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change. Energy Policy, 33, 319–335.
York, R., Rosa, E.A., and Dietz, T. (2003a). Footprints on the earth: The environmental consequences of modernity. American Sociological Review, 68 (2), 279-300.
York, R., Rosa, E.A., and Dietz, T. (2003b). STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological Economics, 46(3), 351-365.
Yu, S., Hu, X., & Fan, J. L. (2018). Convergence of carbon emissions intensity across Chinese industrial sectors. Journal of cleaner production, 194, 179-192.
Zhang, C., Su, B., Zhou, K., & Yang, S. (2019). Decomposition analysis of China's CO2 emissions (2000–2016) and scenario analysis of its carbon intensity targets in 2020 and 2030. Science of Total Environment, 668, 432-442.
Zhang, P., & Hao, Y. (2020). Rethinking China's environmental target responsibility system: Province-level convergence analysis of pollutant emission intensities in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118472.
)