Seyed Nasrullah Ebrahimi Seyed Nasrullah Ebrahimi; muhamad shyryjyan
Volume 3, Issue 10 , April 2014, , Pages 1-39
Abstract
This paper deals with the process of developments in upstream oil and gas contracts during 1979-1991 and 1992-2013. We will understand that any type of conventional contracts had not been concluded during 1979-1991 but in the latter period, three generations of Iranian service contracts named, “Buy-Back ...
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This paper deals with the process of developments in upstream oil and gas contracts during 1979-1991 and 1992-2013. We will understand that any type of conventional contracts had not been concluded during 1979-1991 but in the latter period, three generations of Iranian service contracts named, “Buy-Back Contracts” have been designed and implemented. Due to the necessity of designing new upstream contracts we intend to analyze that which of the conventional upstream contracts are compatible with the current sovereignty laws of oil and gas industry? Regarding the dominant regulations on this sector, what are the concerns and proposal framework of experts about the new contracts? Finally, it seems that the dominant legal requirements on oil and gas upstream sector with the principles of Buy-Back contracts are more convenient than other types of conventional contracts. Of course, the new contracts regarding the current legal capabilities, should be both the ability of answering to concerns of critics as well as suitable flexibility in terms of oil and gas fields of the country.
Marzieh Oraei; Abbasali Abounoori; Hadi Mohamadi
Volume 3, Issue 11 , July 2014, , Pages 1-28
Abstract
In this paper, we assess the various impacts of “Targeting Subsidies Low” on Benefit to Cost Index (B/C) of pistachio arbor in Rafsanjan plain during 2010 to 2025. The results show that because of an 85 percent contribute to total income for pistachio exportation, under the condition of government ...
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In this paper, we assess the various impacts of “Targeting Subsidies Low” on Benefit to Cost Index (B/C) of pistachio arbor in Rafsanjan plain during 2010 to 2025. The results show that because of an 85 percent contribute to total income for pistachio exportation, under the condition of government intervention for foreign exchange costing, the huge inflation effects of “Targeting Subsidies Low” implementation will cause a significant decrease in B/C index of pistachio production. To avoid this, we suggest governors to make a supportive package of foreign exchange costing for pistachio farmers during the “Targeting Subsidies Low” implementation.
Seyed Nasrollah Ebrahimi; Mehdi Montazer; Farzad Masoudi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 1-26
Abstract
The Upstream Service Contracts in oil and gas industry of Iran have been used as an international contract for the exploration and development of Iran oil & gas fields, aiming to attract investment and establishing relationships with international oil companies (IOCs). These contracts explicitly ...
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The Upstream Service Contracts in oil and gas industry of Iran have been used as an international contract for the exploration and development of Iran oil & gas fields, aiming to attract investment and establishing relationships with international oil companies (IOCs). These contracts explicitly or implicitly contain several statutory principles which are considered as a basic formation of the contracts. Such principles provide benefits for both national oil company (NOCs) and IOCs plus foreign Investors. Since those principles are considered to be mandatory rules prevailing on petroleum upstream contracts, thus, it would not be possible to derogate from such rules when negotiating and concluding these contracts. This parer is an attempt to investigate and find those principles and provided legal-economic analysis accordingly.
Seyed Peyman Asadi; Javid Bahrami
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 1-29
Abstract
This paper examines factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime in oil producing countries. Prevailing theories in selecting exchange rate regime include optimum currency area, political economy theory, and currency crisis. In this survey the matter has been studied regarding political ...
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This paper examines factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime in oil producing countries. Prevailing theories in selecting exchange rate regime include optimum currency area, political economy theory, and currency crisis. In this survey the matter has been studied regarding political economy theory. The variables used in the economic and political structure of the considered countries indicate that from 1974 to 2011 as many as 31 countries by using Panel Logit model have been studied. The result suggests the influence of political structure, oil rent, government ideology and economic capacity on specifying the exchange rate regime. Thus, the more democratic political structure, as well as the more leftist government ideology and also the wider economic capacity increase, the likelihood of choosing a flexible regime , If oil rent and dependence on oil revenue increase there will be a higher probability of implementing a fixed regime.
Seyed Aziz Armen; Samira Taghizadeh
Volume 2, Issue 8 , October 2013, , Pages 1-20
Abstract
Due to the need forenergy efficiency inindustrial sector, assessment of thefactors affectingenergy intensity seems as an essential task.Inthis study, using panel data approach, the main factorsaffectingenergy intensityinnine branches of Iran's industry during 1374-1389 period were examined. Results show ...
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Due to the need forenergy efficiency inindustrial sector, assessment of thefactors affectingenergy intensity seems as an essential task.Inthis study, using panel data approach, the main factorsaffectingenergy intensityinnine branches of Iran's industry during 1374-1389 period were examined. Results show that both energy price and technology are inversely related to the energy intensity. Meanwhile, the results also indicate that the speed of energy consumption (growth of energy consumption) is less than the speed of growing of value added in industries (growth of production) which in turn is indicative of the fact that bigger scale manufactures are more energy-efficient. Therefore, we recommende the use of bigger scale industies through integrating small scale ones. In addition, energy price adjustment, promotion of technology and inflation rate control, as the permanent policies to decrease energy intensity, could be effective.
Misib Pahlavani; Hajar Asna Ashri; Ali Sardar Shahraki
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, , Pages 1-15
Abstract
Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study ...
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Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study the short term and long term relationship. After evaluating the model for unit root test, a logistic regression analysis was run on the basic of 1986-2012 data for the economy of Iran. Our findings indicate the existence of a significant correlation between economic growth, trade freedom and coal consumption with carbon dioxide emission. Thus the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve are confirmed both in the short-run and long-run. Panning for coal consumption reduction can be emphasized as a policy tool for emission reduction.
Hossein Asgharpourpour; Davoad Behboodi; Rabab Mohammadi Khaneghahi
Volume 2, Issue 6 , April 2013, , Pages 1-26
Abstract
During the last decades, global warming and climate change has created much concern across the world. These concerns coincided with the aim of achieving higher economic growth, has become Environmental risks arising from economic activity to a controversial issue. The main objective of this study is ...
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During the last decades, global warming and climate change has created much concern across the world. These concerns coincided with the aim of achieving higher economic growth, has become Environmental risks arising from economic activity to a controversial issue. The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run effects of economic and financial developments on environmental pollution in selected Opec countries over the period 1973-2007. The results show that financial development indicators have significantly negative impact on CO2 emissions. Also, the results show that the relationship between economic development and CO2 emissions follow a N shaped relationship. Hence, the recommended policy is more financial development in order to improve the quality of the environment.
Karim Islamluian Islamluian; Ali Hossein Ostadzad
Volume 2, Issue 5 , January 2013, , Pages 1-48
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to develop a model for determining the optimal shares of renewable and non-renewable sources of energy in a sustainable growth model. We develop an optimal control model in which nonrenewable and renewable sources of energy are inputs of production. The model allows ...
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The main purpose of this study is to develop a model for determining the optimal shares of renewable and non-renewable sources of energy in a sustainable growth model. We develop an optimal control model in which nonrenewable and renewable sources of energy are inputs of production. The model allows us to determine the optimal shares of renewable and nonrenewable energy inputs. Finally, we use the model to determine these shares for Iran. Genetic algorithms technique is used to estimate the coefficient for production and utility functions. We also estimate the pollution equation. Using these parameters, we derive the optimal paths for consumption, output and renewable and nonrenewable energy shares in Iran. The results show that the optimal share of renewable energy in total energy consumption is about 0.8 percent in 2010. While the actual share of renewable energy in Iran was 0.4 percent. Moreover, our model predicts this share should rise to 2.1 percent of total energy consumption by 2021 to be able to stay on sustainable growth path. This requires an average growth rate of 26 percent in renewable energy production each year.
Mahdi Akhavan
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 1-32
Abstract
An incomplete contract is an exchange in which some aspects of a transaction is unspecified. Contractual incompleteness decrease contract effectiveness. Buy-back contract has legal and contractual obligations witch incompleteness from some of these aspects is undesirable. This study analysis these obligations ...
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An incomplete contract is an exchange in which some aspects of a transaction is unspecified. Contractual incompleteness decrease contract effectiveness. Buy-back contract has legal and contractual obligations witch incompleteness from some of these aspects is undesirable. This study analysis these obligations in time, cost and repayment in phases 2&3 of south pars gas field in development period. Result shows that buy-back contract for phases 2&3 of south pars gas field is incomplete. Because of high transaction cost, parties bounded rationality, uncertainty, complexity and project time and necessarily lead not to perfect implementation of commitment. In transaction cost economics any contract is inevitably incomplete. Some mechanisms designed for gap filling in incomplete contract. In buy-back contract this mechanism is designed in joint management committee. Distribution of power between parties is equal and contract cannot adapt contract performance with initial contract.
Fatemeh Bazzazan; Mir Hosien Mousavi; Farnaz Gheshmi
Abstract
The continuous growth of electricity consumption in Iran, due to the low and unreasonable prices, has created immense pressure on the national network of supplying electricity to meet the ever-increasing demand. The realistic and economically justifiable pricing of electricity has, therefore, become ...
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The continuous growth of electricity consumption in Iran, due to the low and unreasonable prices, has created immense pressure on the national network of supplying electricity to meet the ever-increasing demand. The realistic and economically justifiable pricing of electricity has, therefore, become an urgent issue for managing supply and demand. The residential electricity consumption in the country is one of the main sources of such demand increase. The present study focuses on the impacts of government subsidies on electricity demand and consumption for the urban and rural households in Iran. Data used for this study include price index, urban and rural household expenditures, provided by the Iranian Center for Statistics, Central Bank of Iran during the period 1991-2012. The study utilizes Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation methods for data analyses. The results show that electricity is an essential good for both urban and rural households, and as such the demand and consumption levels for both urban and rural households in the country have very little (less than one) elasticity to prices. The conclusion is that the demand levels for residential electricity consumption are not meaningfully reduced by the price increase for customers created by elimination or reductions of governmental subsidies for electricity. Therefore, pricing policies alone would not be effective to reduce residential electricity consumption in the country, and there is a need for additional and supplemental policies.
Mehdi Akhavan; Mohammad Medi Askari; Maghsood Emani
Abstract
[English] The study of oil and gas contracts require coherent theoretical framework that links different disciplines. Transaction cost economics present an interdisciplinary approach for analyzing contractual issues. Since 1995 three generations of buy-back contracts implemented in Iran .This study ...
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[English] The study of oil and gas contracts require coherent theoretical framework that links different disciplines. Transaction cost economics present an interdisciplinary approach for analyzing contractual issues. Since 1995 three generations of buy-back contracts implemented in Iran .This study for analyzing opportunism, one of TCE behavioral assumptions, focused on the first generation contracts. Opportunism is interest seeking without considering principles and consciences that do not maximize common interest. The buy-back contract parties have different interests that are not aligned with each other. The contract is incomplete; there is asymmetry in information and investment structure, so opportunism is possible. Some forms of Shirking of obligations, enforcing to renegotiation and inflexibility under new circumstances in buy-back contract, are examples of ex-post opportunism. Because of the vulnerability of the parties due to their specific investment in the project, monitoring mechanisms in the buy-back contract is not able to prevent from opportunism. Incentives alignment is another solution for opportunistic behavior that occurred in test period, but not in cost minimization and using more efficient technologies.
Mohammad Asiae; Naser Khiabani; Bighiyatollah Mousavi
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 1-24
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in the level of environmental emissions caused buy consunption energy in the manufacturing sector, after the adjustments made for energy subsidies. We first estimated the demand functions for energy for two digits (isic) manufactures within ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in the level of environmental emissions caused buy consunption energy in the manufacturing sector, after the adjustments made for energy subsidies. We first estimated the demand functions for energy for two digits (isic) manufactures within the period 1374-1386. The methodology in this study is based on the two-steps cost functions ,which in the first step the demand functions for a trans-log sub-model of energy (electricity, gas, oil and other energy carriers) and in the second step, the demand functions for manufacturing inputs (capital, labour and energy) were estimated. Then, we calculated the quantity of changes in the consumption of energy carriers by the means of price elasticitties, after omission subsidies and the changes in the level of energy consumption. The findings of this study are as follows: The Pindyck self-price elasticities of electricity, gas, oil and other energy carries show that one percent increase in the price of each of these variables cause 0.18, 0.34 and 0.87 percent decrease in the consumption, respectiuely. The most reduction emission is due to CO2 gas. Clearly, the most pollutent gas in manufacturing sector in due to CO2 gas.
Hamidreza Arbab; Zohreh Abbasifar
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 1-16
Abstract
Most studies suggest a form of inverted U relationship between environmental quality and economic growth, entitled as "the environmental Kuzne's curve (EKC)"
Given the importance of maintaining environmental quality along with economic growth, this study studies the level of water pollution and economic ...
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Most studies suggest a form of inverted U relationship between environmental quality and economic growth, entitled as "the environmental Kuzne's curve (EKC)"
Given the importance of maintaining environmental quality along with economic growth, this study studies the level of water pollution and economic growth both in developing and developed countries during 2001-1980. Based on theoretical foundations of environmental EKC curve, as in addition to the income variable, the population variable, is also considered as an exogenous variable and the integration method is used for estimating the model. The results indicates that the economic conditions prevailing in both groups of countries are consistent with the EKC. Curve and it this curve. The turning point in developed countries is at 10,622 dollars based on statistical findings, most of the studied countries in this group have crossed the turning point. But as for developing countries, the turning point in this curve is estimated at approximately 901 dollars of national per capita income. Statistical analysis of existing data showed that many countries at this group still have not reached the turning point of the EKC curve and are far from it. Using the results, it seems necessary for the developing countries to adopt more cautious policies to grow and develop their economies, in order to promote the growth of national per capita income, as well as policies to improve quality of water resources, or at least prevent their contamination.
Ali Emami Meibodi; Yousef mohammadzadeh; Seyed Yaser Majidi
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2011, , Pages 1-31
Abstract
Resent emprical studies indicate that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. Also according to literature on economic growth that human capital, education, technologcal progress and institutional quality are effective factors on ...
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Resent emprical studies indicate that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. Also according to literature on economic growth that human capital, education, technologcal progress and institutional quality are effective factors on economic growth. This essay using Dynamic Panel Data and GMM method, investigates the Resource Curse Hypothesis and then analyzes the rope of effective factors and their trace on RCH. Among several effective factors, in this paper we focus on Human Capital and Institutional Quality. Elected sample for this study is two groups of petroleum exporters' countries: A) Major petroleum exporters and B) Other petroleum exporters. The analysis for the period 1995-2008. Results indicate that Resource Curse is observed in major Petroleum Exporting Countries. Results confirm the importance of low institutional quality and inadequate investments on human capital in the occurrence of a resource curse. Therefore our finding confirm natural resource abundance may have a negative impact on growth occurs if considered in isolation, but a positive direct impact on growth if other explanatory variables, such as human capital, institutional quality, openness and etc, are also studied.
Esmail. Abunoori; mihamadhadi Rajaii
Volume 1, Issue 2 , April 2012, , Pages 1-22
Karim Eslamloueyan; Ali Hussein Ostadzad
Abstract
Environmental tax and subsidy are two key instruments used in many countries to prevent environmental degradation and to achieve sustainable development. Using game theoretic approach, this paper develops and calibrates a model to determine optimum indirect environmental tax for Iran. More specifically, ...
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Environmental tax and subsidy are two key instruments used in many countries to prevent environmental degradation and to achieve sustainable development. Using game theoretic approach, this paper develops and calibrates a model to determine optimum indirect environmental tax for Iran. More specifically, in the first stage the government sets green taxes and subsides, and in the second stage, the final goods and energy producing firms take these rates and choose their inputs. This dynamic game is solved by backward induction. Prior to our calibration, the production functions for fossil energy, renewable energy - as an intermediate goods - and final goods are estimated. The model is calibrated by using the Iranian data for the period 2015. The results indicate that the optimum green tax rate on fossil energy producing firm and final goods firm are 18 and 9 percent, respectively. These results have important policy implications for policymakers and social planners in Iran.
Fariba Asadi; Mohammad Hossein Karim; Majid Feshari
Abstract
Despite the high potential of geothermal energy in Iran, only 100 MW of geothermal power will be produced in 2017, Because noticeable amount of subsides have allocated to fossil fuels plants in recent years. This study aims to compare final cost of geothermal electricity with electricity cost of other ...
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Despite the high potential of geothermal energy in Iran, only 100 MW of geothermal power will be produced in 2017, Because noticeable amount of subsides have allocated to fossil fuels plants in recent years. This study aims to compare final cost of geothermal electricity with electricity cost of other kinds of prevalent power plants in Iran. The levelized cost method includes investment, operation and maintenance, fuel and pollution costs of each technology which produce electricity. Comparison of final costs of electricity on export price of fules and externalities costs reveals that high capacity factor, independence on fossil fuels and low emission costs, would make geothermal power plants competitive with other power plants in Iran. This study suggests that the liberalization of energy prices has a significant effect on geothermal power development in Iran and could provide the possibility for exporting more natural gas to foreign countries.
Majid Aghaei; Mahdieh rezagholizadeh
Abstract
According to the importance of energy in economy, especially in developing countries, investigation the impact of energy consumption on poverty and inequality in Iran is necessary. this study investigates the direct and indirect impact of energy consumption in agricultural, industry and service sectors ...
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According to the importance of energy in economy, especially in developing countries, investigation the impact of energy consumption on poverty and inequality in Iran is necessary. this study investigates the direct and indirect impact of energy consumption in agricultural, industry and service sectors of Iranian economy on the poverty and inequality. the simultaneous equations consist of production equation, inequality, energy demand and poverty equations and instrument variable estimator was used to achieve this goal in the period of 1984-2010. The results of this study indicate that energy consumption in service sector reduce poverty directly but the indirect effect of energy consumption on poverty reduction through inequality reduction has not confirmed. On the other hand, energy consumption in industry and agriculture sectors has just an indirect effect on poverty reduction through inequality reduction. Also, based on the results, energy consumption through positive and significant effect on the economic growth, reduce poverty indirectly in all sectors.
Shirkou Bahadori; Teymour Mohammadi; Farshad Momeni; Abbas Kazeminajafabadi
Abstract
In this study the effect of petroleum contracts on Iran and Saudi Arabia’s oil production trend has investigated. Disaggregated approach has utilized to investigate the effect of petroleum contracts. In this approach, optimal production of the fields of above mentioned countries, has been evaluated ...
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In this study the effect of petroleum contracts on Iran and Saudi Arabia’s oil production trend has investigated. Disaggregated approach has utilized to investigate the effect of petroleum contracts. In this approach, optimal production of the fields of above mentioned countries, has been evaluated in two scenarios. Then by summation of production data of all fields, production trend of these two countries has been calculated. In the first scenario, it is assumed that control of oil production is in the hands of host country, while control of production in the second scenario is determined based on the kind of contracts which the host country has had during its oil production history. Based on the estimated production trend of two countries, it is observed that in the case which International Oil Company controls the production, rate of oil extraction is more than the case which production is controlled by the host country. Also by increasing the portion of International Oil Company from the produced oil, it increases the production rate to maximize its own net present value.
Seyed Morteza Elahi; Abdolrasool Ghasemi; ali emami meibodi
Abstract
The rapid development of gas distribution in Iran causes considerable dependence of consuming sectors on Natural Gas production .The share of South Pars Gas Field from the entire gas production in the end of sixth Five-Year Iranian Economic Plan will be over 62%. The pressure of reservoir gradually reduces ...
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The rapid development of gas distribution in Iran causes considerable dependence of consuming sectors on Natural Gas production .The share of South Pars Gas Field from the entire gas production in the end of sixth Five-Year Iranian Economic Plan will be over 62%. The pressure of reservoir gradually reduces and subsequently the volume of gas production declines in the production period due to the natural technical condition of South Pars reservoir. Installation of gas compressor platform is necessary in order to delay the reduction of the production. In spite of installation of these platforms,unofficial announcements indicate that production from South Pars field will decrease significantly in the twenty–year prospect and supply of new gas fields cannot compensate this reduction. Hence, in order to prevent gas shortage crisis in the coming years, it is required to predict some strategic actions and prioritize the supply of gas for new demand sectors. The "AHP" model has been applied to determine the priorities for this purpose. The relevant calculations have been carried out for solving the model by selecting a total of 8 options and 6 criteria by using the Expert Choice Software. The priorities of this study for each option are as follows respectively: Injection into Oil Reservoirs, Gas supply to Power Plants, Export, Feedstock for Petrochemical Units, Gas supply to Industries, Gas supply to Residential& Commercial , Transportation
Ali Emami Meibodi; Ahmad Hadi
Abstract
One of the main ways of domesticizing technology in oil industry is conditional contract for transfer of technology from international oil companies. However, over the past years the Iranian oil industry has made a little success in this regard and presently in Iranian new petroleum contract (IPC) as ...
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One of the main ways of domesticizing technology in oil industry is conditional contract for transfer of technology from international oil companies. However, over the past years the Iranian oil industry has made a little success in this regard and presently in Iranian new petroleum contract (IPC) as an alternative to buy back contracts aims to acquire and transfer modern technologies and localize it by collaboration of international oil companies with domestic companies approved by the National Iranian Oil Company, by making some changes in the type, terms and nature of contract. But what is more important than technology transfer is consideration to the obtained results compared with decisions made on the technology transfer of a contract. Thus, evaluation the risk of technology transfer play a clear and prominent role in the future sustainable development of Iranian oil industry. In this study, in addition to the study on buy back and IPC contracts from technology transfer point of view, the risks of technology transfer are detected in IPC contract and discussed by reviewing experts’ opinions. Next, by using FMEA parameters, identified risks are scored and for each RPN is calculated and finally they are prioritized. The highest priority of risk was given to the negative results of oil engineers and experts separation from the National Iranian Oil Company (RPN=576), followed by the effect of the presence of international oil companies in the destruction of the endogenous growth of national oil industry (RPN=448). Considering the high rate of risk in most identified risks, control measures were presented according to experts’ opinions in order to reduce the level of the risks.
Seyed Nasrollah Ebrahimi; Mahmoud akbari
Abstract
This study is the continuation of a few research studies that have been carried out in Iran and other countries identifying the types of the risks involved in design-build contract. Recently, many Iranian petroleum contracts have been encountered with various claims and disputes which made the industry ...
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This study is the continuation of a few research studies that have been carried out in Iran and other countries identifying the types of the risks involved in design-build contract. Recently, many Iranian petroleum contracts have been encountered with various claims and disputes which made the industry difficult to cope and imposed heavier direct and indirect costs and expenditures. This research is meant to provide solutions not only how to tackle this risk but also to prevent cases of such bitter events in the petroleum industry. This study endeavors also to identify the risks in the design and build and EPC contracts in petroleum contracts and then to manage and allocate such risks between the Parties to such contracts. Further, the indented and assessed risks alongside with optimized allocated risks have been compared with the Model Contracts of the EPC No. 5490, drafted by the Planning and Supervision Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and then recommended solutions are proposed in this paper. It is concluded that one of the main causes of such many claims and disputes in the petroleum industry of Iran, is the lack of professional exercise related to the identification, assessment and managements of the petroleum industry risks. It is also resulted from this study that contracts risks management should be the prevailing exercise to design sustainable policy and strategic approaches to prevent the petroleum projects risks that may be embedded during the execution of the petroleum projects.
hamidreza arbab; morteza yousefi
Abstract
Pricing goods and services produced always a crucial concern is the economy and policy decisions by governments.because any change could cost the welfare of consumers and on the other hand the quality and quantity of production and supply of goods and services affect them. In this thesis by examining ...
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Pricing goods and services produced always a crucial concern is the economy and policy decisions by governments.because any change could cost the welfare of consumers and on the other hand the quality and quantity of production and supply of goods and services affect them. In this thesis by examining the natural gas market using theories of microeconomics ,public sector,with the assumptions of of the optimality current price of gas for manufacturing industries in iran,aims to provide the pattern,resonable price ,which the government in the framework of the implimentation of targeted subsidies,with this pricing method high. So according to the terms of the natural monopoly of the natural gas market that is ruling Iran,justified,ramsey pricing pattern has found a method of fuzzy regression olza due to lack of having the resterictions governing classical regression as well as high precision will be used.also ,in order to estimate the production function and efficiency compared to the estimates of the demand function and also to scale and stretch it,your explanation of the pattern of operation with extensive breaks(ARDL) in 1356-1393 .finally also the optimal pattern of natural gas pricing for the various industries of iran’s plant has been estimated. Keywords Optimal pattern,natural gas, pricing,manufacturing industeries
Fatemeh Hajisami; Mohammod Hossin Mahdavi Adeli; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security ...
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Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security in its consuming countries have caused besides oil, its substitutes find specific importance. Development and extraction of unconventional resources on one hand have made changes in reservoirs ranking in different areas of the world and has weakened the dependency of consuming countries and on the other hand, it has affected the changing trend of oil price. In this respect, the present study investigates the causal relationship between oil price and supplying unconventional oil and gas during time period of 2000-2015. Two techniques named Granger technique and Toda and Yamamoto technique have been used to investigate the causal relationship. The results of the research show that in all studying period (2000-2015) the unconventional supply is the strong and direct cause for oil price and the indirect and weak price are introduced as the causes of unconventional supply. Also, based on the results, the strong impact of financial markets on the supply of unconventional resources and oil prices has been achieved. On the other hands the results show that unconventional supply will affect the supply of OPEC in the long term (2000-2015). Therefore, this achievement for OPEC countries, as well as Iran, can be used as a result of a strategic change in production policy.
Teimour Mohamadi; Abdol Rasoul Ghasemi; Amir Nekounam
Abstract
This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such ...
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This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such as the crude oil and natural gas prices have inflammations and severe fluctuations over time that conventional linear regressions do not fit these fluctuations. The regime Switching Model provides a flexible and dynamic framework for nonlinear models and sudden reciprocal transfers. In this paper, by using the Markov switching model framework, the impact of the crude oil price on natural gas price has been measured during the period of the January 1992 to June 2017. The results show that in some regimes the price of crude oil has a direct effect on the price of natural gas and in some other ones has a reversible effect. In Europe, the first lag of crude oil price has a reverse effect for 1 month, and 18 months of direct effect, and the second lag of oil price in both regimes has a direct effect on the natural gas price. However for Asia in both regimes, the impact of oil price on natural gas price is straight and the prices are in the first regime for 28 months and 26 months under the second regime.
