Iranian Energy Economics

Abstract Due to the need forenergy efficiency inindustrial sector, assessment of thefactors affectingenergy intensity seems as an essential task.Inthis study, using panel data approach, the main factorsaffectingenergy intensityinnine branches of Iran's industry during 1374-1389 period were examined. Results show that both energy price and technology are inversely related to the energy intensity. Meanwhile, the results also indicate that the speed of energy consumption (growth of energy consumption) is less than the speed of growing of value added in industries (growth of production) which in turn is indicative of the fact that bigger scale manufactures are more energy-efficient. Therefore, we recommende the use of   bigger scale industies through integrating small scale ones. In addition, energy price adjustment, promotion of technology and inflation rate control, as the permanent policies to decrease energy intensity, could be effective. 

Abstract Due to importance of energy factor in agricultural sector and considering the increasing energy price in recent years, analysis of energy demand is very important.  In this paper in order to analyse agricultural energy demand, OLS, FMOLS and  Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach has been used and results of  these methods have been compared. Data on energy price index, energy consumption and agricultural value added for priod 1355-1388 were used. Results showed that long run and short run price elasticity of energy consumtion are between -0.3 to -0.327 and  -0.09 to -0.102 respectively. Also income elasticity of energy consumption estimated egual to 0.7. Results of  OLS estimation of Log-Log model, Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach are very similar. Because of price inelasticity of energy consumption especially in the shortrun, price policies are not likely to reduce energy consumtion considerably. Price policies can be more effective in the longrun, but this is subject to improvemeats in the energy consumption technology. 

Abstract Gas Exporting Counties Forum (GECF) in an inter-governmental institution, whose impact on gas market has always been a topical issue. The main body of research work done in this regard, which has been carried out mainly by experts in consuming countries, is centered around the analysis of GECF’s impact on natural gas price in consuming markets.  Unfortunately the question of homogeneity or heterogeneity of the member countries and the role which this question may play in the success of strategies and objectives of this organization has been left unattended.  In this paper, we have first demonstrated the heterogeneity of member countries and then by using defined appropriate indices, member countries are ranked according to their impacts on policies and the realization of GECF’s objectives in the short, medium and long terms.  The paper concludes, according to our defined criteria, that Russia, Qatar and Algeria are member countries with highest impact on GECF’s policies in the short and medium term, while Russia, Qatar and Iran are the three influential member countries regarding GECF’s long term policies.

Abstract Electricity is not substitutable. Especially, Electricity is a necessity in the residential sector. In the other hand, electricity does not have storage capabilities. Therefore, its supply and demand should be proportional to each other. Hence, attention to its demand side is important. This paper uses panel data of 28 provinces of Iran to investigate on the factors affecting on the household electricity consumption in Iran in the period 1381-1388. According to the result the price of electricity in the household sector in Iran has little impact on the power consumption in this sector. Also, the impact of alternative energy prices such as natural gas and oil, are low on the electricity consumption. The results indicate that the electricity consumption in the household sector has been more affected by consumption habits.

Abstract Due to the growing demand for electricity it is inevitable to have new power plants. Given the large share of electricity production in thermal power plants, construction of gas burning power plants have particular importance. Because of the high construction cost of the new plants, it is advisable to start with improvement of the efficiency in the existing and plates. One important index in electricity industry, is the efficiency of power plants which concerns all the powerplants in the world. In order to increase it as much as possible, and reduce the loss of energy to a reasonable degree, this paper examined the performance impact of plant life and obtained 0.07 of electricity coefficient for the variable. We also examined other factors related to efficiency. Among the factors influencing efficiency of this type of power plants, the cost of fuel and average plant life and volume of production of electricity were also important. In this study a panel data from 34 gasplants in Iran was used for a period of 4 years (2008-2011). 

Abstract One of the most important roles of a futures market is to provide the means of risk reduction. Optimal hedge strategy is determined via calculation of the hedge ratio. Estimation of hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness depend on correct specification of relation between spot and futures prices. Thus in this paper hedge ratio is estimated for the natural gas futures market by different methods e.g. OLS, VAR, VECM, and GARCH and their effectiveness is compared. In GARCH method, hedge ratio is time-varying so the time series of hedge ratio are estimated while the in other methods a fixed hedge ratio is estimated. Results show that GARCH hedge ratio has higher effectiveness rather than other methods and the effectiveness of other methods are ranked as: VECM, OLS and VAR respectively.

Abstract An important discussion that have been going on among decision makers in power industry, is the idea of restructuring and improving the efficiency and competition in this industry. Thereby, Iran power industry has not been an exception, and since early 1370s it has acted to change its organizational structure. Now the main purpose of this study is to survey and determine the necessity for continuing Iran electricity industry’s restructuring programs. In order to achieve this purpose, Using Delphi method, a questionnaire contained 25 questions were made, and distributed among a panel of 11 selected experts. After three rounds, final results were obtained. These results show that in spite of many shortcomings and problems present in Iran power industry, restructuring process of this industry is evaluated as positive and the continuation of the strategies that has been adopted so far, is required and essential.

Abstract In this article we explain the production behavior in National Iranian oil Company (NIOC) from Transaction Cost Economics’ (TCE) view. The main question in TCE is vertical integration or build or buy decision. So we can analyse governance structure of NIOC for developing plans from buying (buy back contracts) or bulding methods in production of hydrocarbon (Oil and Gas). TCE says Governance Structure aligns itself with Characteristics of Transaction subject to minimization of transactions costs. For surveying this subject, we analysed effective factors on generating transaction costs and governance structure of production in NIOC with using probit model. The results of article relatively supported from TCE hypothesis.