Authors

1 Ph.D Student of Economics Department Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics Alzahra University

2 Alzahra University

3 Associate Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra Universtiy

Abstract

Energy-intensive industries in Iran are responsible for a significant share of energy consumption, especially oil products. Therefore, there is a major focus on promoting energy efficiency in such industries. Energy efficiency improvement results in rebound and backfire effects. In this paper we estimate the effects of fuel oil efficiency improvement in energy intensive industries based on intertemporal general equilibrium model. Simulation for long run period is done for two scenarios, including 3.1% efficiency improvement in energy intensive industries and all sectors of economy. Results show that the rebound effects in chemical industry, food and beverage, basic metal, paper, Rubber and plastic, non- metallic minerals, and wood industries leads to rebound effects in the first scenario. In the long-run, backfire effects are seen in the second scenario in which efficiency improvements for all sectors is considered. In addition, efficiency improvement will result in production cost decrease. Chemical and non- metallic mineral industries experiencing the most decreases of production cost around 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
 

Keywords

الف) فارسی
امینی، علیرضا،نشاط، محمد (1384). برآوردسریزمانیموجودیسرمایهدر اقتصادایرانطیدورهزمانی 1381-1338، مجله برنامه و بودجه، شماره 90، صص 86-53.
 برخورداری سجاد و مهرگان، نادر (1389)؛ مدل­های تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه و کاربرد آنها در اقتصاد، دانشگاه علوم اقتصادی، ، صص 19-32.
خیابانی، ناصر (1392). تدوین یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویا برای ارزیابی سیاست‌های انرژی. موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی.
خوشکلام خسروشاهی، موسی (1393). اثرات بازگشتی ناشی از بهبود کارایی مصرف بنزین و گزوئیل در ایران با تاکید بر بخش حمل و نقل: رویکرد مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 11، صص 131-158.
شرزه­ای، غلامعلی، خلیلی عراقی، منصور، و برخورداری، سجاد (1393). اصلاح یارانه­‌های انرژی و مسیر زمانی مصارف انرژی (رهیافت مدل DCGE). مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی.، دوره 49، شماره 4، صص 799-833.
منظور، داود، شاهمرادی، اصغر و حقیقی، ایمان (1389). بررسی آثار حذف یارانة آشکار و پنهان انرژی در ایران: مدلسازی تعادل عمومی محاسبه پذیر بر مبنای ماتریس داده­های خرد تعدیل شده، فصلنامةمطالعاتاقتصادانرژی، سال هفتم، شماره 26، صص 54-21.
منظور، داود، آقابابایی، محمد ابراهیم و حقیقی، ایمان (1390). تحلیل اثرات بازگشتی ناشی از بهبود کارایی در مصارف برق در ایران: الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه­پذیر، فصلنامةمطالعاتاقتصادانرژی، سال هشتم، شماره 28، صص 23-1.
هژبر کیانی، کامبیز، نقیبی، محمد (1394). برآورد موجودی سرمایه و بررسی کارآیی روشهای مختلف محاسبه آن در بخشهای عمده اقتصادی ایران، فصلنامهپژوهشهایاقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، شماره 2، صص 73-94.
هژبر کیانی، کامبیز (1391). برآورد موجودی سرمایه و مصرف سرمایه ثابت در بخش‌های عمده اقتصادی. پژوهشکده آمار، گروه پژوهشی آمارهای اقتصادی.
ب) انگلیسی
Allan, G., Hanley, N., & McGregor, P. (2007). The impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for the United Kingdom. Journal of Energy Economics. Vol.29, Issue.4, pp.779–798.
Broberg, T., Samakovlis E., & Berg C. (2015). The economy-wide rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in Swedish industries–A general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Energy Policy, Vol.83, pp.26–37.
Brookes, L. (1990), The greenhouse effect: the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution, Energy Policy, Vol.18, Issue.2, pp 199–201.
Devarajan, S., & Go, Delfin S, (1988). The Simplest Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Open Economy. Journal of Policy Modeling. Vol.20, Issue.6, pp. 677–714.
Dixon, P., Jorgenson, D. W. (2012). Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
Gavankar, S., Geyer, R. (2010), The Rebound Effect: State of the Debate and Implications for Energy Efficiency Research, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management
Gillingham, K., Rapson, D., Wagner, G. (2015), The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy
(http://environment.yale.edu/gillingham/GillinghamRapsonWagner_Rebound.pdf)
Greening, L.A., Greene, D.L., Difiglio, C.(2000). Energy efficiency and consumption—the rebound effect—a survey. Energy Policy, Vol.28, pp. 389–401.
Gunning, J. W, Keyzer, M. (1995). Handbook of Development Economics, Chapter 35: Applied General Equlibrium Models for Policy Analysis, Elsevier.
Hanley, N., McGregor, P. G., Swales, J. K., & Turner, K. (2009). Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability? .Journal of Ecological Economics, Vol68, Issue.3, pp. 692–709.
International risk governance council (2011). The Rebound Effect: Implications of Consumer Behaviour for Robust Energy Policies, A review of the literature on the rebound effect in energy efficiency and report from expert workshops (https://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/ilimade/Ines_Azevedo/papers/IRGC_ReboundEffect-FINAL.pdf)
Khazzoom, J. D. (1980), Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency Standards for Household Appliances. The Energy Journal, Vol.1, Issue.4, pp 21–40.
Koesler, S., Swales, K., Turner, K. (2016), International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany, Energy Economics, Vol.54, pp.444-452.
Lofgren, H., Robinson, S., Lee H., R. (2002), A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS, International Food Policy Research Institute.
Lu, Y., Liu, Y., Zhou, M. (2017). Rebound Effect of Improved Energy Efficiency for Different Energy Types: A General Equilibrium Analysis for China, Energy Economics, Vol.62, pp. 248-256.
McKibbin, W. J. (1998), Forecasting the World Economy Using Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium Multi-Country Models
Moshiri, S., Lechtenböhmer, S. (2015), Sustainable Energy Strategy for Iran, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. (http://wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/ad/3502/ )
Saunders, H. D. (2013). Historical Evidence for Energy Consumption Rebound in 30 US Sectors and a Toolkit for Rebound Analysis. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.80, Issue.7, pp. 1317–1330
Sorrell, S. (2007). The Rebound Effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency (http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/programmes/technology-and-policy-assessment/the-rebound-effect-report.html)
Turner, K. (2009). A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy. Discussion papers in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde Glascow.
Wang, H., Zhou, P. (2012). An empirical study of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban China, Energy Economics, Vol.34, pp. 452-460.
Yu, X., Moreno-Cruz, J., & Crittenden, J. (2015). Regional energy rebound effect: The impact of economy-wide and sector level energy efficiency improvement in Georgia, USA . Journal of Energy Policy, Vol.87, pp.250–259.