Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Governor General of Semnan Province, Semnan Provincial Government, Semnan, Iran.
2
Organization for Energy Optimization and Strategic Management
3
Faculty of Mechanical, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
4
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
5
Faculty of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
6
Semnan University
7
Semnan Provincial Government
10.22054/jiee.2026.89117.2180
Abstract
Growing imbalances between energy supply and demand in Iran have underscored the need to understand household energy consumption. This study examined associations of household welfare, dwelling characteristics, and climate with actual energy use in Semnan Province. We linked registered annual electricity and natural-gas consumption for the Iranian year 1403 to field-surveyed household and dwelling characteristics and welfare-decile records, obtaining a final sample of 2,686 households. Consumption distributions and group differences were assessed using analysis of variance, Kruskal–Wallis tests, and post-hoc comparisons. Random forest and benchmark linear regression models were fitted to assess factor importance, potential nonlinearities, and predictive performance. Households were also classified according to official national per-capita thresholds adjusted for household size, and logistic regression was used to assess the odds of remaining below the threshold in relation to welfare decile, floor area, building age, and climate zone. Energy use was right-skewed, with high-consuming households disproportionately raising average consumption. According to the composite index, approximately 55% of households remained below the threshold and 45% exceeded it. Higher welfare status, larger dwellings, and older buildings were associated with greater consumption and lower odds of remaining below the threshold, while climate zone remained relevant after adjustment. The findings identified consumption heterogeneity and groups at higher risk of exceeding thresholds, supporting targeted demand-side policy design. As the data were observational, the results did not establish causal effects of policy interventions
Keywords
Subjects
