Iranian Energy Economics

Investigating the impact of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

behnam elyaspour 1
Narges sanjari konarsandal 2
masoud nikooghadam 1

1 Assistant professor of economics, University of Bojnord, Iran.

2 master's degree in economics/university of Bojnord

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2026.88088.2167
Abstract
The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects many other economic variables. For this reason, examining the factors determining the exchange rate has always been one of the most important issues in the country's foreign exchange policy. The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on the exchange rate in Iran during the period 2008-2023.

For this purpose, the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) method has been used. The results indicate that the impact of economic policy uncertainty, oil price and global geopolitical risk on the exchange rate variable is symmetric. The impact of geopolitical risk variable on the exchange rate in the long run and the economic policy uncertainty variable on the exchange rate in the short run and long run is positive and significant. While the impact of oil price on the exchange rate is negative in the short run and positive and significant in the long run.

Keywords

Exchange Rate
Oil Price
Economic Policy Uncertainty
Global Geopolitical Risk
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
Subjects
Iranian Energy Economics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 April 2026

  • Receive Date 24 September 2025
  • Revise Date 21 April 2026
  • Accept Date 22 April 2026
  • First Publish Date 22 April 2026
  • Publish Date 22 April 2026

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