Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Energy Management, Sanat Naft University
2 Ptroleum University of Technology
Abstract
The global crude oil market, as one of the most significant commodity markets, has always been influenced by geopolitical, economic, and institutional factors. Since its establishment in 1960, OPEC has played a central role in managing supply and stabilizing prices. However, in recent years, it has faced challenges such as the rise of U.S. shale oil production, environmental pressures, and the emergence of new market players. With the formation of the OPEC+ alliance and the increasing production interventions of this group in the global market, analyzing its impact on benchmark crude oil prices has become a strategic issue.This study employs monthly data from 2007 to 2025 and applies a multivariate GARCH model with a BEKK approach to examine the effects of OPEC+ production on benchmark crude oil prices. The results indicate that OPEC+ production policies have significantly reduced price volatility and have effects comparable to the U.S. stock market index, while shale oil production exerts downward pressure on prices and weakens the coalition’s competitive position. Moreover, OPEC+ has remained the dominant market player through leader–follower strategies, although the expansion of shale oil has altered the market’s equilibrium structure.These findings highlight the importance of flexible and resilient policymaking for oil-dependent countries such as Iran, emphasizing the need to withstand price shocks. Future research can focus on analyzing the impacts of these price fluctuations on macroeconomic indicators.
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