Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. (Email: reza_ash@eco.usb.ac.ir).
2 , economics faculty. Allameh Tabatabai University of Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D., Member of the Faculty of economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran
Abstract
The industrial sector, as the largest consumer of fossil energy and a vital pillar of economic development, plays a crucial role in influencing economic growth and environmental changes. The present study aims to dynamically analyze the relationship between the uncertainty of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the industrial sector and Iran’s economic growth, while considering uncertainties in the available data and economic variables. Using data from the Central Bank of Iran and the Energy Balance Sheets, and applying a fuzzy modeling approach over the period 1991–2021, the study estimates the impact of industrial energy consumption, population, labor force, capital stock, industrial CO₂ emissions, and trade openness on economic growth. The main novelty of this study lies in integrating variable uncertainties into the dynamic analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. The findings reveal that labor force, capital stock, and industrial CO₂ emissions exert the most significant impacts on per capita GDP, with coefficients of 2.74, 2.022, and 2.32, respectively. Moreover, energy consumption shows a significantly positive effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 4.19e-15, while, at the lower bound with a membership degree of 0.9, industrial CO₂ emissions negatively affect economic growth with a coefficient of –0.82. Based on the results, it is recommended that carbon taxation policies and incentives for renewable energy adoption be implemented as strategies to reduce environmental uncertainties and promote sustainable economic growth.
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