Iranian Energy Economics

Investigating the Impact of Urbanization Uncertainty and Hydroelectric Energy Consumption on the Ecological Footprint in Iran: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Masoud Cheshmaghil 1
Javad Shahraki 2
Reza Ashraf Ganjoei 3

1 PhD Candidate in Public Sector Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2025.85854.2147
Abstract
This study uses a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model, Iran’s 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), and 1970–2022 data in R software to examine the impact of uncertainties in hydroelectric energy consumption, urbanization, natural resource rents, industrial output, and per capita income on Iran’s ecological footprint. Five scenarios with 5% increases in each variable were tested via Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% rise in hydroelectric energy consumption (Scenario 1) cut the footprint by 2.124%, underscoring clean energy’s role. Conversely, urbanization (Scenario 2) led to a negligible increase (2.06E-46%), indicating efficient urban planning. Natural resource rents (Scenario 3) most adversely increased the footprint by 3.122% from unregulated exploitation. Industrial output (Scenario 4) rose negligibly (0.002%) due to green tech, while per capita income (Scenario 5) saw a 1.74E-05% increase. The findings stress prioritizing clean energy, regulating resource extraction, and advancing sustainable industry.

Keywords

Ecological footprint
Urbanization
Hydroelectric energy
Uncertainty
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) method
Iranian Energy Economics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 13 July 2025

  • Receive Date 18 May 2025
  • Revise Date 12 July 2025
  • Accept Date 13 July 2025
  • First Publish Date 13 July 2025
  • Publish Date 13 July 2025

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