Business cycles and energy intensity in Iran: an asymmetric analysis Approach

Shirzour Aliabadi, Zahra; La&#039;lKhezri, Hamid

doi:10.22054/jiee.2024.76332.2046

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

² Assistant Professor in Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, Qaen, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2024.76332.2046

Abstract

Several studies indicate that economic conditions impact energy intensity. Business cycles, a core element of macroeconomics, are crucial in this regard. This study focuses on exploring the asymmetric influence of business cycles on energy intensity in Iran from 1972 to 2020. To examine the relationships between variables, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) analysis was employed. The model reveals that in the short term, a negative business cycle impact initially decreases energy intensity until a certain point, after which it increases till a specific threshold before showing a long-term positive trend. Conversely, both short and long-term positive business cycle impacts have a negative effect on energy intensity. Moreover, the study demonstrates that short and long-term coefficients associated with the logarithmic OPEC oil price variable are positive, while the industrial structure index logarithm shows a 0.12% decrease and a 0.04% increase in short and long-term energy intensity, respectively. The Wald's test outcomes indicate an asymmetric impact of positive and negative business cycle impulses on energy intensity in the long run, whereas the short-term effect appears to be symmetrical. Understanding business cycles can aid policymakers in making informed decisions regarding energy industry development, effectively curbing excessive energy intensity growth

Keywords

Main Subjects

مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)

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Business cycles and energy intensity in Iran: an asymmetric analysis Approach

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Volume 13, Issue 51 - Serial Number 3July 2024Pages 93-121

Volume 13, Issue 51 - Serial Number 3
July 2024
Pages 93-121