Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Assistant Professor in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences,University of Birjan ,Birjand, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor in Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences , Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, ,Qaen, Iran.
Abstract
Many studies have shown that economic conditions affect energy intensity.As a fundamental component of macroeconomics, business cycles are a fundamental factor in energy intensity.The present study examines the asymmetric effect of business cycles on energy intensity in Iran in the period 1972-2020. In order to analyze the relationships between the variables, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)was used.The results of the model show that in the short term, the impact of the negative impulse of the business cycle on the energy intensity has a negative effect until the first break and then a positive effect until the third break, while it is positive in the long term. But the positive impulse to the business cycle in the short and long term has a negative effect on energy intensity. Also the results show that the coefficients related to the logarithm variable of OPEC oil price in the short and long term are positive. But the short-term and long-term coefficients of the logarithm of the industrial structure index show that energy intensity decreases by 0.12%and increases by 0.04%in the short-term and long-term, respectively.Finally the results of Wald's test show that the effects of positive and negative impulses of business cycles on the energy intensity index are asymmetric in the longterm,but in the short term, this effect is symmetrical.Recognizing business cycles can lead to correct decision-making by policy makers in the development of the energy industry and at the same time, it can effectively prevent and even reduce the excessive growth of energy intensity
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