Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Zinat Goli ¹
• Hamid Amadeh ²
• taymoor mohamadi ³

¹ Minestry of economic affairs and finance

² energy Economic Department, allameh tabatabai' univerrsity, tehran iran

³ theoretical economics department, economic faculty allame tabaai,' university

Abstract

Environmental concerns and global warming have posed a challenge to the continued use of fossil fuels, especially oil. In order to achieve the goal of limiting the temperature increase to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, the IPCC has developed scenarios considering the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and the increase in the use of renewable energy. This issue poses a serious threat to economies heavily reliant on oil exports, such as OPEC. To examine the effects of these scenarios, supply and demand functions for oil were estimated using the VECM model. The findings indicate that the oil supply function has a direct relationship with the real oil price, with a long-term coefficient of 0.1391. Additionally, one percent increase in the production of non-OPEC countries will lead to a 0.7323 percent increase in OPEC oil supply. The price elasticity of demand in the long term is estimated to be -0.077. The elasticity of industrial production in advanced and emerging countries is estimated 0.7756 and 0.6241, respectively. Based on the estimated coefficients, the changes in OPEC supply in the most pessimistic IPCC scenario will be 40% reduction in 2030 and 94% reduction in 2050 compared to 2010.

Keywords

• "؛ Crude oil demand"؛ Crude oil supply"؛
• "؛ Renewable energies"؛
• "؛ vector error correction model (VECM)"

Main Subjects

• • مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حامل‌های انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)