Response of Global Macroeconomy to Oil Shocks and Comparison of Selected Countries' Vulnerabilities: GVAR Approach

GHOLAMPOUR, ELHAM; Mohamadi, Teymour; Abolhasani Hastiani, Asghar; Mehrara, Mohsen

doi:10.22054/jiee.2022.65928.1886

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University.Tehran.Iran

² Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

³ Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Payame Noor University.Tehran.Iran

⁴ Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2022.65928.1886

Abstract

The extant study was conducted to examine the economic effects of an oil supply shock, assess the response of Iran's GDP[1] to oil supply shocks specific to the main oil exporting countries, and oil-based Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR-Oil) throughout 1976Q2-2016Q4 covering 27 country-region cases. The consequences caused by the positive oil supply shock of the USA included an actual increase in the GDP of oil-importing countries in both developed and emerging markets, an inflation decline in most countries, and rising stock prices worldwide. In particular, Iran-specific oil-supply shock had a minor impact on the global economy because of the increase in the oil production rate of Saudi Arabia. In contrast, a negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia led to an instant and permanent rise in oil prices. According to countries' vulnerability findings, the economies of Saudi Arabia and Iran were more influenced by negative oil supply shocks compared to Indonesia and Norway. The present study indicated that Saudi Arabia-specific negative oil supply shock had a different effect than other major oil-exporting countries.

Keywords

20.1001.1.24235954.1400.10.38.4.3

Main Subjects

• سیاستگذاری‌های اقتصادی و مالی در حوزه‌های فوق‌الذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی

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Iranian Energy Economics

Response of Global Macroeconomy to Oil Shocks and Comparison of Selected Countries' Vulnerabilities: GVAR Approach

References

References

Volume 10, Issue 38 - Serial Number 2
April 2021
Pages 155-194

Response of Global Macroeconomy to Oil Shocks and Comparison of Selected Countries' Vulnerabilities: GVAR Approach

References

References

Volume 10, Issue 38 - Serial Number 2April 2021Pages 155-194

Volume 10, Issue 38 - Serial Number 2
April 2021
Pages 155-194