سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Ezatollah Tayebi; Teymur Mohammadi; Morteza Khorsandi; Abdolrasol Ghasemi; Mohammad Sayedi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation ...
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The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.IntroductionCountries rich in natural resources often struggle with resource mismanagement, institutional inefficiency, and economic volatility. Iran, despite significant oil revenues, has faced low economic growth and macroeconomic instability. The NDF was created to mitigate these challenges by saving oil revenues and promoting productive investment. This research explores how the structure and allocation of NDF resources affect macroeconomic variables and seeks to identify optimal strategies for maximizing its impact.Methods and MaterialsThe study employs a DSGE model based on Real Business Cycle (RBC) and New Keynesian foundations, integrating sectors such as households, firms, government, central bank, and the NDF. Bayesian estimation techniques were used to calibrate model parameters using quarterly macroeconomic data. Multiple policy scenarios were simulated, including pure loan-based allocation and mixed investment strategies, to examine their effects on output, inflation, employment, and capital accumulation.Results and DiscussionSimulation results show that switching from a loan-only strategy to a mixed investment approach enhances capital accumulation, investment, and output growth. While the short-term effects (approximately the first year) of both approaches are similar, the investment-inclusive approach yields superior long-run results. Portfolio optimization through the MVP model recommends allocating 43.4% to equities, 49.6% to mutual funds, and 7% to real estate, maximizing returns under acceptable risk levels.ConclusionThe findings emphasize that diversifying the NDF’s financial instruments beyond traditional loans enhances both fund profitability and macroeconomic stability. Strategic allocation toward capital markets and investment vehicles leads to sustainable growth and improved intergenerational equity. Future policies should integrate a balanced portfolio approach to optimize the Fund’s economic contribution.AcknowledgmentsThe author extends sincere gratitude to Dr. Mehdi Sarem for his invaluable support in model development, and to the editorial board of the Journal of Energy Economics of Iran for their constructive feedback and publication support.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Yazdan Gudarzi farahani; Zoleikha Morsali Arzanagh; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of investment in renewable energy on Iran's macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical information related to the period 1991-2022 was used. For this purpose, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method was used. The information used ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of investment in renewable energy on Iran's macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical information related to the period 1991-2022 was used. For this purpose, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method was used. The information used in this article was collected from the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Energy. The theoretical framework of the present study will be based on investment models, optimization and inter-sectoral balance. In this study, the effects of investment in the field of renewable energy through public and private companies are included in the model. The results obtained from the investment shock in the field of renewable energy indicated that investment in this sector had the greatest impact on the growth of economic added value in the industry, services, agriculture, and oil and gas sectors. Also, the obtained results indicate that in order to increase social welfare and achieve economic development, a 4-year investment period with a 50% growth in the field of renewable energy infrastructure in the country is necessary.
najmeh khaleghifar; Hassan Khodavaisi
Abstract
Electricity is one of the essential factors for the economic development in almost all countries. On the other hand, the increasing use of the non-renewable energy, like fossil fuels for electricity generation, would lead to the depletion of the non-renewable reserves. Also, the use of fossil fuels is ...
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Electricity is one of the essential factors for the economic development in almost all countries. On the other hand, the increasing use of the non-renewable energy, like fossil fuels for electricity generation, would lead to the depletion of the non-renewable reserves. Also, the use of fossil fuels is one of the most important factors contributing to environmental pollution and climate change. Hence, the optimal use of energy in the process of the economic development has always been considered as an important objective for the sustainable development. In this research, a small open economy has been devised by considering a structure for its electric power market based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, taking into account four main sectors, including households, production, government and the foreign trade sector. Furthermore, the dynamic effects of shocks in the economy on macroeconomic variables have been examined in the study. The simulation and analysis of impulse response functions of the model indicated that the productivity shocks in the electricity industry have significant effects on macroeconomic variables. The adjustment of the effects of shocks takes place in the long run. Moreover, the mechanism of the effect of a consumer’s preferences shock is quite different, and even its adjustment on some macroeconomic variables occurs over a longer period of time compared to the other shocks
