• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Zahra Farshadfar; Sajad Piri
Abstract
High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability ...
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High fluctuations in the price of crude oil, as the main source of energy and an important raw material of the global chemical industry, has doubled the importance of accurate estimation and forecasting of its price trend in recent years. The purpose of this applied research, is to increase the ability to predict crude oil prices using non-linear patterns by artificial intelligence. For this purpose, four artificial intelligence networks MLP, RNN, LSTM 3366and GRU have been used and their capabilities compared to each other and the benchmark model, besides their prediction accuracy have been evaluated using the mean squared error method. The studied sample is North Sea Brent crude oil data from Aug 1st 2007 to May 31st 2024 on a daily, monthly and yearly basis.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models have several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone. Also, among the selected non-linear models, GRU has more accurate predictions with less error in different frequencies and in a shorter time.
The results of the research indicate that the network architecture in these models has several advantages in extracting information from the data in order to make more accurate predictions, and the time to obtain future prices is shorter and less error-prone.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
mirhossain mousavi; niloofar nori
Abstract
Energy is one of the most essential and vital goods in the household consumption basket. Access to energy for meeting basic needs is a fundamental right of every consumer. However, due to the occurrence of the energy imbalance phenomenon in Iran's economy, this access has become limited in recent years. ...
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Energy is one of the most essential and vital goods in the household consumption basket. Access to energy for meeting basic needs is a fundamental right of every consumer. However, due to the occurrence of the energy imbalance phenomenon in Iran's economy, this access has become limited in recent years. In light of this issue, the aim of this paper is to determine the minimum subsistence level of energy consumption for Iranian households. To achieve this, data on household income and expenditure from 1991 to 2022 were used, categorized into five groups: food, clothing, housing, energy, and others. The Linear Expenditure System (LES) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) method were employed to estimate the expenditure function and determine the necessary costs for meeting the minimum subsistence level. The results reveal that the highest marginal propensity to non-subsistence expenditure belongs to the food group, accounting for approximately 40%, while the lowest marginal propensity is observed in the energy group, at about 6%. In the energy category, the average expenditure required to meet the minimum subsistence level increased from 176,000 IRR in 1991 to 87,472,600 IRR in 2022. In other words, the expenditure required for energy to meet minimum subsistence needs grew approximately 497-fold during this period.
• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
majidreza momeni
Abstract
OPEC was established to play a greater role in the international energy system, and over a period of time, the trans-OPEC states have tried to influence the functioning and status of the organization. One of these actors has been the United States, which has influenced the organization by adopting various ...
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OPEC was established to play a greater role in the international energy system, and over a period of time, the trans-OPEC states have tried to influence the functioning and status of the organization. One of these actors has been the United States, which has influenced the organization by adopting various policies and plans, even after the discovery of Shale technology, which is becoming a major supplier of oil. In this regard, this piece of research seeks to address the important question of how the US energy policies during the Trump presidency affected OPEC? to answer the question, it is hypothesized that with the discovery of Shale technology and its expansion during Trump's presidency, the United States has tried to establish a new international energy order as well as to change the traditional energy geopolitics in order to sideline the organization. This research analyzes the issue by applying the theory of realism as well as using an explanatory method with primary and secondary data including documents, reports, speeches, books, articles, and valid websites. Finally, the findings of the study emphasize the fact that it is necessary for Iranian officials and policymakers to know and understand US energy policies, especially during the Trump era and developments in the global energy system so that to be able to try moderating the consequences of the sanctions and paving the way for Iran’s return as one of the significant players of the field of energy in the international system
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohammad Ali Avindeh; Bita Tabrizian; Maryam Teymourian Sefideh khan
Abstract
In the new century, consumer concerns about environmental accountability, which are also aligned with environmental laws, have pushed a growing number of companies to design and create environmentally friendly programs. Accordingly, this study examines how to implement a green marketing mix to sell a ...
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In the new century, consumer concerns about environmental accountability, which are also aligned with environmental laws, have pushed a growing number of companies to design and create environmentally friendly programs. Accordingly, this study examines how to implement a green marketing mix to sell a product and stay in the market. Based on this, a sample of 90 investment marketing specialists in the field of green marketing in the field of energy was randomly selected and examined according to the volume of each category. The conceptual model of the research was designed based on the combined theoretical studies of green marketing and consumer intention and based on it, questionnaires were designed and the desired data were collected. The results show that in order to research the objectives of the research, the following items should be considered in such a way that they can compete with similar types: the use of recyclable materials to produce the product to reduce environmental damage, the introduction and presentation of environmentally friendly energy in exhibitions, conferences and seminars, the use of update transportation system to distribute products in the market to do less harm to the environment, appropriate pricing of green products.
zahra azizi
Abstract
One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry ...
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One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry of the demand dynamics and the change in the coefficients of the model during the boom and recession have been less widely considered. Therefore, in the present paper, considering the threshold error correction model, the dynamics of energy demand in Iran during the period of 1978-2014, is estimated with the consideration of the difference in the recession and economic boom. The results of this study indicate that there are two different regimes in energy demand dynamics in Iran. In recession, price and income elasticity of demand as well as the speed of adjustment is lower. While at the time of the boom, the flexibility of the demanders for reaction was greater, and so the price and income elasticity and speed of adjustment were higher. On this basis, although energy demand is inelastic at the time of the boom and in recession, and hence the implementation of pricing policies cannot be effective on demand, the effectiveness of these policies can be greater during the economic boom than the recession.
seyed mehdi mousavian; Zahra Karimi Takanlu; seyed kamal sadeghi; Mohsen Pourebadollahan Covich
Abstract
The formulation of effective energy efficiency (reducing the energy intensity) policies requires study of the factors affecting energy intensity. The final consumption of energy in the manufacturing sector of Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ...
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The formulation of effective energy efficiency (reducing the energy intensity) policies requires study of the factors affecting energy intensity. The final consumption of energy in the manufacturing sector of Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the energy intensity in the manufacturing industries of Iran, especially the effect of government expenditures and foreign direct investment on the energy intensity in these industries and controlling the spillover effects between provinces using provincial panel data of Iran from 2000 to 2014. Based on Panel (Robust) LM, Wald and LR tests, Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) has been used to investigate the spillover impact effects of energy intensity. According to the results, energy prices, private ownership and government capital expenditures have a negative effect on energy intensity, while export-value added and capital-labor ratios have a positive impact on energy intensity. Foreign direct investment also did not have a significant effect on energy intensity. These results call for greater attention to the adoption of higher production technologies in investment and the role of the government in energy intensity changes. The results indicate possibility of using neighboring enrichment policies to increase energy efficiency.
khalil jahangiri; Hasan Heydari; Seyed Ali Hoseini EbrahimAbad
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of electricity consumption in the industrial sector and the whole economy of Iran. For this purpose, the states of high and low efficiency of electricity consumption in the industrial sector and the economy was detected by using of markov ...
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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of electricity consumption in the industrial sector and the whole economy of Iran. For this purpose, the states of high and low efficiency of electricity consumption in the industrial sector and the economy was detected by using of markov regime switching model during the period 1963 to 2014. The results show that the duration of low efficiency regime in the industrial sector is more stable than the high efficiency regime. The average duration of the low efficiency regime is 2.84 times of high efficiency regime. The results also show that the general level of prices and per capita production has negative and positive effect on the efficiency of electricity consumption in the industrial sector and the whole economy respectively. So, It is expected to improve the efficiency of electricity consumption in the national level and the industrial sector when inflation declines and economic growth occurs.
Majid Aghaei; Mahdieh rezagholizadeh
Abstract
According to the importance of energy in economy, especially in developing countries, investigation the impact of energy consumption on poverty and inequality in Iran is necessary. this study investigates the direct and indirect impact of energy consumption in agricultural, industry and service sectors ...
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According to the importance of energy in economy, especially in developing countries, investigation the impact of energy consumption on poverty and inequality in Iran is necessary. this study investigates the direct and indirect impact of energy consumption in agricultural, industry and service sectors of Iranian economy on the poverty and inequality. the simultaneous equations consist of production equation, inequality, energy demand and poverty equations and instrument variable estimator was used to achieve this goal in the period of 1984-2010. The results of this study indicate that energy consumption in service sector reduce poverty directly but the indirect effect of energy consumption on poverty reduction through inequality reduction has not confirmed. On the other hand, energy consumption in industry and agriculture sectors has just an indirect effect on poverty reduction through inequality reduction. Also, based on the results, energy consumption through positive and significant effect on the economic growth, reduce poverty indirectly in all sectors.
Seyed MohamadEsmaiel Jalali; Maryam Emami; Mehdi Najafi; Fatemeh Gharib-Bolok; Hassan Mohammadi; Ahmad Ramezanzadeh
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 63-88
Abstract
Enjoying the twelfth largest coal reserve in the world, only one percent of Iran’s energy consumption basket is supplied by coal. Now, Iran’s energy economy is under the influence of natural oil and gas resources, causing other more profitable energy resources to be neglected. The Underground ...
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Enjoying the twelfth largest coal reserve in the world, only one percent of Iran’s energy consumption basket is supplied by coal. Now, Iran’s energy economy is under the influence of natural oil and gas resources, causing other more profitable energy resources to be neglected. The Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) technology is a procedure to transform the underground coal into gas, resulting in improving the recovery of coal layers with different thicknesses and depths. This technology may be considered as a strategy to feed the domestic gas network with the synthetic gas of UCG. Therefore, Iran’s gas export capacity will be improved, helping domestic and foreign economy of energy. Implementing and using the UCG technology in Iran will help us take a leap toward the goals of upstream documents and orders of the Supreme Leader in the fields of oil and gas.
Jafar Haghighat; Mohammad Saleh Ansari lari; Pouyan Kiani
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 89-116
Abstract
Enjoying the twelfth largest coal reserve in the world, only one percent of Iran’s energy consumption basket is supplied by coal. Now, Iran’s energy economy is under the influence of natural oil and gas resources, causing other more profitable energy resources to be neglected. The Underground ...
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Enjoying the twelfth largest coal reserve in the world, only one percent of Iran’s energy consumption basket is supplied by coal. Now, Iran’s energy economy is under the influence of natural oil and gas resources, causing other more profitable energy resources to be neglected. The Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) technology is a procedure to transform the underground coal into gas, resulting in improving the recovery of coal layers with different thicknesses and depths. This technology may be considered as a strategy to feed the domestic gas network with the synthetic gas of UCG. Therefore, Iran’s gas export capacity will be improved, helping domestic and foreign economy of energy. Implementing and using the UCG technology in Iran will help us take a leap toward the goals of upstream documents and orders of the Supreme Leader in the fields of oil and gas.
