Younes Nademi; Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi
Abstract
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of ...
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Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of sanctions on the unemployment rate in Iran's economy. To this end, the effect of positive and negative oil price shocks and the intensity of sanctions on Iran's unemployment rate during the period 1980-2015 was investigated using Markov switching method. The results of this study show that the positive impact of oil prices has had a negative effect on unemployment and has led to a reduction in unemployment and, in contrast to the negative impact of oil prices, has had a positive and increasing effect on unemployment. Also, the results of the unemployment model estimation indicate that the increase in the intensity of sanctions has had an increasing impact on unemployment. Finally, Iran’s economy is on average 2.8 years in the high unemployment regime and 1.4 years in the low unemployment regime that indicates the persistence of high unemployment rate in Iran's economy
Ali Hossein Samadi; Ibrahim Hadian; Mahboubeh Jafari
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, , Pages 75-101
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables such as investment, unemployment and production based on quarterly data during the period 1386:4-1369:1. To achieve this, permanent and transitory volatility of OPEC oil price estimated by component GARCH model ...
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This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables such as investment, unemployment and production based on quarterly data during the period 1386:4-1369:1. To achieve this, permanent and transitory volatility of OPEC oil price estimated by component GARCH model (CGARCH). Then, using the Impulse response function, the impact of permanent and transitory volatility of oil prices on macroeconomic variables has been analyzed. The results indicate that permanent uncertainty arising from changes in oil prices has led to decline investment and production and to rise unemployment. And the impact on these variables is permenant. It is indicated that investment and production has declined and unemployment has increased due to oil price uncertainty and this process is accompanied by a high volatility.
