Taha Shishegari; Abbas Memarnejad; Farhad Ghaffari; Seyed Shamseddin Hosseini
Abstract
There have been many studies on economic sanctions and the effectiveness of these sanctions. In these studies, the sanction variable treats as one or two dummy variables (binary), to indicate at most four levels (no sanctions-mild sanctions-severe sanctions-comprehensive sanctions). Studying the effectiveness ...
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There have been many studies on economic sanctions and the effectiveness of these sanctions. In these studies, the sanction variable treats as one or two dummy variables (binary), to indicate at most four levels (no sanctions-mild sanctions-severe sanctions-comprehensive sanctions). Studying the effectiveness of economic sanctions requires recognizing the extent and severity of sanctions in various sectors, so it is not possible to examine the effectiveness of sanctions and any review of economic sanctions independent of the severity and extent of sanctions. To this end, in this article, we present the severity of sanctions imposed on the energy sector to a variable between zero to five to provide a better indicator to understand the pressure of economic sanctions imposed on the energy sector of Iran. We examine the effectiveness of sanctions by entering the sanctions severity variable on Iran's foreign trade with five major trading partners, including Germany, China, India, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, based on the gravity equation through an interactive dummy variable method. We tried to present all the sanctions imposed on Iran's energy sector, between 1992 and 2018. The results show a significant and negative effect of the intensity of energy sector sanctions on Iran's foreign trade. China and UAE have the lowest response to sanctions on Iran’s Energy sector. Also, the highest reduction of trade with Iran due to energy sector sanctions is dedicated to India and Germany.
Masoud Shirazi; Abdolrasoul Ghasemi; Teymour Mohamadi; Ali Faridzad; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
This research conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of the dynamic international crude oil trade network of Iran by using the network connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) and also the asymmetric short-term and long-term impact of the increasing and decreasing key driving factors ...
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This research conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of the dynamic international crude oil trade network of Iran by using the network connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) and also the asymmetric short-term and long-term impact of the increasing and decreasing key driving factors and obstacles in the crude oil trade development through the gravityrelation and by using the nonlinear panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model during 1980–2017. Results indicated the dynamic spillover flow of the crude oil trade of Iran during the investigated period of time. Moreover, the crude oil trade flow of Iran is a net shock transmitter to Middle East and a net shock receiver from the crude oil trade flow in countries of America, Eastern Europe- Eurasia, Africa, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific, respectively. The focus on the divided regional trade scheme and adopting the biased foreign trade policies by Iran may not lead to the vulnerability reduction of its economy from crude oil trade flow volatilities. Findings also reveal the asymmetric behavior of the crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the increasing and decreasing of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita variables in both crude oil exporting and importing countries and international crude oil transportation costs in the short-term and long-term period that it can be used in identifying the effective factors on the volatility transmission to adjust the crude oil trade flow. Therefore, concerning the high degree of the integration in the international crude oil trade network of Iran, it seems that it is necessary to prioritize cooperative over competitive behavior in the crude oil trade of Iran and respond appropriately to market shocks and volatilities during the time (risk management) in the economic plan of the country.
