Iranian Energy Economics

Forcasting The Domestic Iranian Natural Gas Balance: With Using of Hybrid ARDL and ARIMA Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

fotros mohammadhasan 1
mostafa omidali 2
amirmohammad galavani 3

1 bu ali sina university

2 Economics Faculty, Bu-Ali Sina University of Hamedan

3 shahid beheshti university

https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2018.9049
Abstract
The aim of this study is to estimate the domestic balance of natural gas per capita in the Iran, as well as its forecast for the period 2017 - 2037. In this study, with employing dynamic models Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), at first, long-term and short-term elasticity of per capita natural gas demand in Iran for the period 1981-2016 is estimated. Then with using a hybrid ARDL and ARIMA model, we predict the balance natural gas per capita up to the year 2037. The results show that amount of per capita natural gas demand will reach 4177.36 million cubic meters in 2037, as well as the amount of per capita natural gas supply will reach 3417.26 million cubic meters in this years. For responding this excess demand should be adopting policies to increase production or constrainting natural gas demand.

Keywords

forecasting
natural gas balance in Iran
ARDL
ARIMA

  • Receive Date 24 October 2017
  • Accept Date 11 September 2018
  • First Publish Date 11 September 2018
  • Publish Date 22 December 2017

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