zahra azizi
Abstract
One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry ...
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One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry of the demand dynamics and the change in the coefficients of the model during the boom and recession have been less widely considered. Therefore, in the present paper, considering the threshold error correction model, the dynamics of energy demand in Iran during the period of 1978-2014, is estimated with the consideration of the difference in the recession and economic boom. The results of this study indicate that there are two different regimes in energy demand dynamics in Iran. In recession, price and income elasticity of demand as well as the speed of adjustment is lower. While at the time of the boom, the flexibility of the demanders for reaction was greater, and so the price and income elasticity and speed of adjustment were higher. On this basis, although energy demand is inelastic at the time of the boom and in recession, and hence the implementation of pricing policies cannot be effective on demand, the effectiveness of these policies can be greater during the economic boom than the recession.
Nader Mehregan; Nader Mehregan
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 208-183
Abstract
The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate ...
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The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367.1 -1389.4 using Markov switching model. The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return, although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth, but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.
Hamid Molaei; Abolghasem Golkhandan; Davood Gol Khandan
Volume 3, Issue 10 , April 2014, , Pages 201-229
Abstract
Asymmetric effects of oil shocks mean the difference between the positive and negative effects of oil shocks. Empirical studies show that these asymmetric effects can affect economic growth in oil-exporting countries as well as importing countries. In this regard, this paper tries to investigate the ...
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Asymmetric effects of oil shocks mean the difference between the positive and negative effects of oil shocks. Empirical studies show that these asymmetric effects can affect economic growth in oil-exporting countries as well as importing countries. In this regard, this paper tries to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting countries (including Iran) during the period 1980-2011by using hidden panel Cointegration. This approach, in addition to analyzing the long-term non-liner relationship between the variables, has another important capability for modeling asymmetry between different variables. Firstly, it has been shown that there is a long relationship between cumulative positive and negative components in crude oil prices and GDP in these countries by using Kao panel co-integration (hidden co-integration verification). Then, their long- run asymmetric relationships are measured by using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). The results of this study show the negative effects of oil shocks are more than the positive effects on the economic growth of oil-exporting countries.
