Nader Mehregan; Nader Mehregan
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 208-183
Abstract
The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate ...
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The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367.1 -1389.4 using Markov switching model. The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return, although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth, but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.
Syed Abdul Majeed Jalai Asfandabadi.; Fatemeh Abbasi
Volume 2, Issue 5 , January 2013, , Pages 81-105
Abstract
GDP growth rate as a measure of economic progress is estimates on the basis of national accounts . Since the national accounts are recorded regardless of natural resource depletion, by estimating depreciation in the oil, gas, coal and other parts of the environment, depletion of natural resources ...
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GDP growth rate as a measure of economic progress is estimates on the basis of national accounts . Since the national accounts are recorded regardless of natural resource depletion, by estimating depreciation in the oil, gas, coal and other parts of the environment, depletion of natural resources can be accounted for which will provide the access to green GNP index. Green GNP shows increased economic growth stability. Among all natural resources, oil is the most important source of revenue for oil exporting countries and fluctuations in its price is a major factor for economic crisis in both the oil-exporting and importing countries. The main purpose of the present paper is to examine the impact of oil price shocks on green GNP . For this study, the first oil price shock are calculated using hoodrick - Prescott Filter method and then the effects of oil price shocks on green manufacturing was estimated using self regressing pattern. Based on the estimation results in the short term, oil price shocks have a negative impact on the green production . This is due to the oil extraction, depletion of natural resource is increased and it leads to decreasing the green production , and it has negative impact on green production in the long-run because an increase in oil production will lead to real growth of other sectors so that this growth offsets the depreciation.
