• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Mohsen Eslami; Alireza Najjarpour
Abstract
There is good reason to expect crude oil prices to follow nonlinear models. However, previous research has considered the linear assumption to investigate the existence of a unit root. Unit root linear tests such as ADF, PP, and KPSS are provided for linear models. These tests are not suitable for nonlinear ...
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There is good reason to expect crude oil prices to follow nonlinear models. However, previous research has considered the linear assumption to investigate the existence of a unit root. Unit root linear tests such as ADF, PP, and KPSS are provided for linear models. These tests are not suitable for nonlinear time series. Because the model deviation from the linear state may be considered as a random permanent deviation. The purpose of this article is to test the nonlinear unit root of crude oil prices, specifically Brent and WTI oil in the period 2019-2020 daily. For several decades now, various classes of nonlinear models have been introduced. These models introduce a wider range of dynamics than linear models in time series. A special type of these models that economists pay attention to are TAR models. In these models, as in linear models, valid statistical analysis requires distinguishing between the deterministic trend and the stochastic trend. In this study, the Bayesian unit root test for the general SETAR (1) model has been used with respect to the necessary and sufficient conditions for the maintenance of SETAR processes based on the article by Petrocyl and Wolford (1984). A nonlinear unit root test was performed using Bayesian validity interval. The results show that Brent crude oil prices in both regimes contain a unit root that is consistent with similar findings for the production or consumption of crude oil..
Shaker Mohammadi; Ali Emami Meibodi; Afshin Javan; Amir Hossein Fakehi
Abstract
Importance of long-term planning in the energy sector and employing policy design tools are focal and strategic issues of the country. The main objective of this paper is to measure the supply (Energy Transformation) and demand of energy during the period of 2014-2042 according to the reference scenario ...
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Importance of long-term planning in the energy sector and employing policy design tools are focal and strategic issues of the country. The main objective of this paper is to measure the supply (Energy Transformation) and demand of energy during the period of 2014-2042 according to the reference scenario and policy scenarios, and to calculate the amount of oil and gas savings under the new scenarios of supply and demand management of the reference scenario. The results of modeling below various energy sectors indicate that energy demand will increase from 1321 MBOE in 2014 to 2471.3 MBOE in 2042. By defining new scenarios and adopting demand and supply management policies, the amount of crude oil savings in the projected year is 702.6 MBOE, which is higher than the base year's crude exports. This result attributed to crude oil exports will be added in the planning horizon. This paper concludes that the move towards utilizing energy demand management and energy supply (Energy Transformation) policies, as well as replacing the renewable energy sources of wind and solar instead of fossil fuels.
zeinolabedin sadeghi; Sahar Bahador; Mehdi Nejati
Abstract
Concerning the growing demand for electricity, the inability of governments to provide the necessary resources to invest in the electricity industry as well as increased prices of fossil fuels, a tendency has increased towards the issues of the economy of power systems. The aim of the present study was ...
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Concerning the growing demand for electricity, the inability of governments to provide the necessary resources to invest in the electricity industry as well as increased prices of fossil fuels, a tendency has increased towards the issues of the economy of power systems. The aim of the present study was to investigate the possibility of integrating power systems in countries bordering Iran using data of 2000-2011. To do this, the dynamic behavior of two scenarios was assessed up to 2030 using Vansim Simulation Software. Results of comparing two scenarios of self-sufficiency and free market revealed that creating an integrated market in the studied region resulted in decreased electricity price due to decreased capacity costs
