سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
jalal Dehnavi; Mir Hossein Mousavi; Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi; Lana Eivazy
Abstract
The growth and survival of a company are based on making appropriate and principled investment decisions. This is while a company always continues to operate in an unpredictable environment and under the influence of various shocks. In this regard, this issue has created a two-way relationship between ...
Read More
The growth and survival of a company are based on making appropriate and principled investment decisions. This is while a company always continues to operate in an unpredictable environment and under the influence of various shocks. In this regard, this issue has created a two-way relationship between investment and uncertainty. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between investment and uncertainty in the Iranian oil industry during the period 2010 to 2019 for 32 listed companies active in the oil industry. In this regard, using the vector auto-regression approach with generalized auto-regression conditional variance heterogeneity moment, first, the structural shocks of the oil market are extracted, and then using the generalized moments approach of the Tobin q investment model is estimated. Findings show that the shock caused by global demand (εpw), and the shock caused by the global stock market (εsp) have a negative and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to corporate capital stock. The ratio of gross investment to the company's capital stock has a negative effect on its amount with a one-year delay, which is also statistically significant. Oil supply shock (εopw) and oil price shock (εrp) have a positive and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to the company's capital stock. The ratio of market value to the replacement value of company assets has a positive and significant effect on the ratio of gross investment to capital stock. In this regard, due to the effectiveness of oil companies’ investments in global variables such as global oil price fluctuations and supply and demand shocks, investors' stock insurance against sudden fluctuations and shocks is recommended.
Mansour Khalili Iraqi Khalili Iraqi; Akbar Komijani; zainab Kasraei
Volume 3, Issue 10 , April 2014, , Pages 67-91
Abstract
In this paper we provide an introduction to real options in valuing investment projects. Since one of the real options applications is valuing oil and gas development projects with high uncertainty and considerable investment costs, in this research we have performed valuation of selected phases of “South ...
Read More
In this paper we provide an introduction to real options in valuing investment projects. Since one of the real options applications is valuing oil and gas development projects with high uncertainty and considerable investment costs, in this research we have performed valuation of selected phases of “South Pars” gas field development project. “South Pars” gas field as the greatest independent gas field in the world is shared between Iran and Qatar and contains approximately half of the gas reserves of Iran. Based on the results of the model, using real options approach to valuing this project as compared to traditional valuation methods such as discounted cash flow, increases the project value meanwhile there is the possibility to identify optimal time of development.
Seyyed Komeil Tayyebi; Rahaman Khoshakhlagh; Maryam Farahani
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 175-197
Abstract
Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic ...
Read More
Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic process is a kind of stochastic differential equation which is assumed to have the variable fluctuating in the proximity of its long run average. In this paper, we measure a proxy of uncertainty for Iran's heavy oil prices by mean reverting stochastic process in the period of 1985-2009. The results indicate that the most uncertainties were in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and the least were in 1985, 1986 and 1998.
