مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
mohammad sadegh adibian; taghi ebrahimi salari; hadi esmaeilpour moghadam
Abstract
Uncertainties are an intrinsic element of economic systems, exerting substantial and complex effects on various economic structures. Oil prices, in addition to being a crucial factor in production, are also a key indicator of oil revenues within Iran's economy. This study investigates the impacts ...
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Uncertainties are an intrinsic element of economic systems, exerting substantial and complex effects on various economic structures. Oil prices, in addition to being a crucial factor in production, are also a key indicator of oil revenues within Iran's economy. This study investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty, originating globally as well as from China, the United States, and Russia, on Iran’s crude oil prices. The analysis is conducted using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with monthly data from 1997 to 2022. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty at the global level, as well as that originating from China and Russia, has a significant and nonlinear effect on Iran’s crude oil prices. Similarly, geopolitical uncertainty originating globally, from China, and from Russia has a direct and nonlinear influence. In contrast, geopolitical uncertainty from the United States shows a linear and inverse relationship with Iran’s crude oil prices. Moreover, the study explores the effects of concurrent uncertainties from the same source, revealing that simultaneous uncertainties originating globally, from Russia, and from the United States, have substantial and nonlinear impacts on Iran’s crude oil prices. These findings highlight the importance of employing advanced models capable of accounting for the joint effects and interactions of multiple variables. The insights provided by this research are valuable for stakeholders in oil markets and policymakers involved in managing the complexities of financial and geopolitical dynamics.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Mohammad Sadegh Adibian; Ali Emami Meibodi; hadi esmaeilpour moghadam
Abstract
Corruption and political risk are important factors affecting the economies that can affect various aspects of people's lives. On the other hand, one of the important economic indicators that shows the intensity of energy consumption, and in other words, the amount of energy consumption in each country, ...
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Corruption and political risk are important factors affecting the economies that can affect various aspects of people's lives. On the other hand, one of the important economic indicators that shows the intensity of energy consumption, and in other words, the amount of energy consumption in each country, is the energy intensity. Energy intensity is a crucial indicator by which we can understand the trend of changing energy efficiency in different years. Given the importance of this issue, the present study examines the effect of corruption and political risk along with other factors on the energy intensity of selected countries in the Mena region, including Iran, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE using by a panel data model for 2003 to 2019. The results show that corruption, political risk, and factors such as good governance, foreign investment, and human development are important. Therefore, improving education and awareness by reducing corruption and political risk can lead to better implementation of energy efficiency programs.
