Misib Pahlavani; Hajar Asna Ashri; Ali Sardar Shahraki
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 1-15
Abstract
Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study ...
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Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study the short term and long term relationship. After evaluating the model for unit root test, a logistic regression analysis was run on the basic of 1986-2012 data for the economy of Iran. Our findings indicate the existence of a significant correlation between economic growth, trade freedom and coal consumption with carbon dioxide emission. Thus the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve are confirmed both in the short-run and long-run. Panning for coal consumption reduction can be emphasized as a policy tool for emission reduction.
Ahmed Seifi; Mustafa Salimifar Salimifar; Haniyeh Fanoodi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 17-41
Abstract
Thermal power plant emissions are considered as one of the most important environmental pollutions. In this study environmental efficiency of electricity industry for NOx emissions is calculated. Our data include 6 power plants of three Khorasan provinces for 1384-1387. We rely on hyperbolic translog ...
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Thermal power plant emissions are considered as one of the most important environmental pollutions. In this study environmental efficiency of electricity industry for NOx emissions is calculated. Our data include 6 power plants of three Khorasan provinces for 1384-1387. We rely on hyperbolic translog distance function specification that treats the outputs asymmetrically by allowing equiproportional desirable outputs expansion and undesirable outputs contraction. This function is implemented by using conventional econometric techniques based on panel data maximum likelihood estimation. The result shows that environmental efficiency for this sample of plants is 93.81 on average. In addition, our estimated shadow price for each kilogram of NOx is 1.12 Rials. Results of this kind of studies can be useful for decision makers to have a better environmental prospect for planning.
Sayed Kamal Sadegi; Saeed Ebrahimi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 43-73
Abstract
Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study ...
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Industrialization leads to emission of carbon dioxide from extensive use of fossil fuels. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth, trade freedom, coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission in Iran. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is designed to study the short term and long term relationship. After evaluating the model for unit root test, a logistic regression analysis was run on the basic of 1986-2012 data for the economy of Iran. Our findings indicate the existence of a significant correlation between economic growth, trade freedom and coal consumption with carbon dioxide emission. Thus the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve are confirmed both in the short-run and long-run. Panning for coal consumption reduction can be emphasized as a policy tool for emission reduction.
Ali Hossein Samadi; Ibrahim Hadian; Mahboubeh Jafari
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 75-101
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables such as investment, unemployment and production based on quarterly data during the period 1386:4-1369:1. To achieve this, permanent and transitory volatility of OPEC oil price estimated by component GARCH model ...
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This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables such as investment, unemployment and production based on quarterly data during the period 1386:4-1369:1. To achieve this, permanent and transitory volatility of OPEC oil price estimated by component GARCH model (CGARCH). Then, using the Impulse response function, the impact of permanent and transitory volatility of oil prices on macroeconomic variables has been analyzed. The results indicate that permanent uncertainty arising from changes in oil prices has led to decline investment and production and to rise unemployment. And the impact on these variables is permenant. It is indicated that investment and production has declined and unemployment has increased due to oil price uncertainty and this process is accompanied by a high volatility.
firouz Fallahi; Mohsen PourabdalhanQuech; Davood Bahboodi; Fakhri Sadat Mohseni Zanozi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 103-127
Abstract
Oil revenues make up the major part of revenues of the oil exporting countries. So, the fluctuation of oil price is very important for these countries. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on output in Iran over the period of 1369:1-1386:6 using the Markov switching approach. ...
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Oil revenues make up the major part of revenues of the oil exporting countries. So, the fluctuation of oil price is very important for these countries. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on output in Iran over the period of 1369:1-1386:6 using the Markov switching approach. The results suggest that the effects of oil shocks on output are separable into two regimes. In addition, the results also show that the effect of oil shocks over the recessions is significantly higher than that over the booms. In other words, the impacts of oil shocks on output in the Iranian economy over the booms and recessions are asymmetric.
Hossin Mohammadi; Amin Baratzadeh
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 129-145
Abstract
Oil revenue can play an important role in the economy of Iran. Oil revenues are the main source of government expenditure and exports. On average about 60 percent of government revenue and about 80 percent of Iran’s export income comes from oil and gas. Because of the importance of oil income shocks ...
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Oil revenue can play an important role in the economy of Iran. Oil revenues are the main source of government expenditure and exports. On average about 60 percent of government revenue and about 80 percent of Iran’s export income comes from oil and gas. Because of the importance of oil income shocks on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, government expenditure, investment and liquidity, in this paper these effects have been investigated. We use quarterly data from central bank of the Islamic republic of Iran for the period of 1990-2010 and the method of vector auto regressive model (VAR) has been used. The results indicate that oil revenue shocks have major effect on these macroeconomic variables.
Mohammed Goli Yousefi; Timur Mohammadi; Navid Maarefzadeh
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 147-170
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to forecast demand for crude oil of Iran using Artificial Neural Networks and ARMAX models. The result indicates that Artificial Neural Networks provides an accurate and better picture compared with ARMAX. In order to show whether the variables used in this study are true ...
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The purpose of this paper is to forecast demand for crude oil of Iran using Artificial Neural Networks and ARMAX models. The result indicates that Artificial Neural Networks provides an accurate and better picture compared with ARMAX. In order to show whether the variables used in this study are true determinants of Crude oil demand, we have also applied the same techniques with the same variables to forecast crude oil demand of five selected OPEC countries. The result confirms our earlier findings for Iran. Applying rank correlation coefficient for these findings, show high correlation coefficients between the result for Iran and other countries. Therefore we may say that the variables such as GDP, population, net exports and the number of vehicles are key variables for any forecasting relating to crude oil demands in similar countries.
Karim Aslamuliyan; Javad Harati; Ala Hossin Ostadzadeh
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, Pages 171-197
Abstract
This paper uses the growth model of Stokey (1998) extended by Deng and Huang (2009) to examine the dynamic relationship between output and environmental pollution in Iran. After solving the model and deriving the necessary conditions for sustainable growth path, the model is used to examine the presence ...
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This paper uses the growth model of Stokey (1998) extended by Deng and Huang (2009) to examine the dynamic relationship between output and environmental pollution in Iran. After solving the model and deriving the necessary conditions for sustainable growth path, the model is used to examine the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Iran. Using MATLAB software, the model is calibrated for the Iranian economy for the period 1959-2008. This allows us to find optimal paths for key variables. The result shows that that the Iranian economy is not on its optimal sustainable growth path. Moreover, simulation results indicate that there is a positive relationship between income per capita and CO2 per capita over time. Hence, we might claim that the Iranian economy is probably on its early stage of growth. In other words, Iran might still be on the negative part of EKC. In addition, our simulation result shows that there will be a threshold level for per capita income in which the quality of environment starts improving after this point. Hence, one might conclude that the EKC might be true for Iran.
