Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master of Energy Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

2 Assistant Professor of Energy Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

Abstract

The efforts of oil importing countries to transfer from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels and the feasibility of commercial exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves can jeopardize the security of demand for crude oil by exporting countries. . In this study, by calculating the oil demand risk index from OPEC member countries during the years 2000-2014, the relationship between this variable and the price of oil by investing in the upstream sector of the oil industry of these countries during the years (2000-2012) Using panel data model with random effects has been investigated. The results show that the effect of the index of risk of demand for oil exports on investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry is negative and this effect is significant. Therefore, given the coefficient of the risk index of demand for oil exports, it can be concluded that a percentage change in the risk of demand for oil exports makes up 0.51percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the opposite direction. In addition, the effect of oil prices on investment in the upstream of the oil industry is positive, so that a 1percent change in oil prices changes 1،12percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the same direction.

Keywords

جلالی فر، بهناز و بابایی، نیلوفر. (1395). «بررسی اثر نوسانات قیمت نفت خام بر سرمایه­گذاری کشورهای عضو اوپک در بخش بالادستی صنعت نفت». فصلنامه مطالعات انرژی، سال دوازدهم، شماره 50، صص 227- 195
توفیق، علی اصغر، معظمی، منصور، عابدیان، مریم، (1394)، «راهبردهای سیاستگذاری در حوضه امنیت صادرات انرژی در ایران»، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی سیاستگذاری عمومی، دوره 1، شماره 4، صص 95-71
انتظارالمهدی، مصطفی. (1393). «اندازه گیری شاخص های امنیت انرژی: بهره وری داشتن؛ با تاکید بر کشورهای عمده تولیدکننده جهان اسلام». مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام، شماره 10، صص 51-31.
سوواکول، بنجامین (1391). کتاب مرجع امنیت انرژی. ترجمه علیرضا طیب، تهران: موسسه فرهنگی مطالعات و تحقیقات بین المللی ابرار معاصر.
کاملی، علیرضا، (1389)، مروری بر عمده­ترین تحولات بازار نفت در نیم قرن اخیر( سال­های 1960 تا 2008 میلادی)، انتشارات موسسه مطالعات بین­المللی انرژی.
قاسمیان، سلیمان و فتوحی مظفریان پریسا (1392)، «شناسایی روندهای نوظهور و چشم انداز درحال تغییر بازار انرژی جهان» ماهنامهاکتشافوتولید، شماره 103، صص 16-9
درخشان، مسعود. (1391). «امنیت انرژی و تحولات آینده بازارهای نفت و گاز»، فصلنامه راهبرد، سال بیست و یکم، شماره 64، صص 159-188.
سوری، علی (1390)، اقتصادسنجی پیشرفته (جلد2)، نشر فرهنگ شناسی، 1390
Akhmetov, A. (2015). Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply and Energy Exports Demand in Central Asia, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, Issue.4, pp. 901-909.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2012.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2018.
Chalvatzis, K. J. and Ioannidis, A. (2017). Energy Supply Security in Southern Europe and Ireland. Energy Procedia, Vol. 105, pp. 2916 – 2922.
Cohen, G., Frederick, J. and Loungani, P. (2011). Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies. IMF Working paper, 11/39.
Coq, C. L. and Paltseva, E. (2009). Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply in the European Union. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue.11, pp. 4474–4481.
Dike, J. C. (2013). Measuring the Security of Energy Exports Demand in OPEC Economies. Energy Policy, Vol.60, pp.594-600.
Hotteling, H. (1931) The Economics of Exhaustible Resources The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp137-175.
Kruyt, B., Van Vuuren D.P., DeVries, H.J.M. and Groenenberg, H. (2009). Indicators for Energy Security. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, pp.2166–2181.
Morse E. L. (2012), Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East?, Citigroup Global Markets, pp 41.
Salman, A. and Razman bin, R. T. (2014). Using System Dynamics to Evaluate Renewable Electricity Development in Malaysia, Kybernetes, Vol.43, pp.24-39.
Sovacool, B. K. (2007). Coal and Nuclear Technologies: Creating a False Dichotomy for American Energy Policy, Policy Sciences, Vol.40, Issue.2, pp 101-122
Sovacool, B. K. and Mukherjee, I. (2011). Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: A Synthesized Approach. Energy, 36, 5343-5355.
Stern, P. C. and Elliot A. (1984), Energy Use: The Human Dimension, New York: Freeman & Company.
World Bank, 2014.