Mansour Mahinizadeh; Mohammad Ali Feizpour; Maryam Abedi
Abstract
Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran ...
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Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran since 2010. Since energy additionaly to labor and capital is one of the important inputs in production, running this rule with increasing energy price, affects manufacturing industries due to the type of energy and industry. In this research, the impacts of price liberalization on electricity efficiency have evaluated. Partial adjustment model, generalized method of moment and energy intensity measure are applied to this purpose. Data are collected from Statistical Center of Iran during 1995-2013. The research innovations are: using a partial adjustment model in evaluating efficiency, assessment whole industrial groups, and the period of research. The results show that in 95 percent level of confidence, the Iranian manufacturing industries are significantly flexible for changing the use of electricity. But the electricity efficiency has gotten worse after running the rule. In general, apposite of expectations, targeting subsidies rule has failed to improve electricity efficiency at least in short run.
Abdolrasool Ghasemi; Roghayeh Mohammad Khanpour
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 169-190
Abstract
The impact of information & communication technology (ICT) on people's lives can be study in different aspects. From economic and environmental perspective, the outcomes of the efficiency and productivity activities, has an important role because the improvement of efficiency provides a basis for ...
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The impact of information & communication technology (ICT) on people's lives can be study in different aspects. From economic and environmental perspective, the outcomes of the efficiency and productivity activities, has an important role because the improvement of efficiency provides a basis for reducing energy consumption .This Paper examines the impact of information & communication technology (ICT) on petroleum products in transportation Sector of the selected OECD & OPEC countries for the period 2000-2010 , and for this purpose ,dynamic panel modes are used. The results show that ICT has different rules in the samples. In the selected OECD countries, more use of information and communication technology can increase the intensity of consumption of petroleum products of the transportation sector, while in the selected OPEC countries more use of ICT can reduce the intensity of consumption of petroleum products of the transportation sector and ICT has the potential for reduction of energy intensity in the transportation sector of these countries that have high energy intensity.
Mohammad Mowlaei; Moslem Yaghoobi
Abstract
The Considerable Share of natural gas in the energy basket and the growing trend in the residential sector on one hand and the exhaustible resource of natural gas as a nonrenewable resource on the other hand, make necessary to optimize the consumption of natural ...
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The Considerable Share of natural gas in the energy basket and the growing trend in the residential sector on one hand and the exhaustible resource of natural gas as a nonrenewable resource on the other hand, make necessary to optimize the consumption of natural gas. The government performed the targeted subsidies law in 18 December 2010 in Iran with the purpose of optimizing consumption of gas and the other energy carriers. According to this law, the government has increased the price of energy carriers (including natural gas) gradually and omitted the energy subsidies, but gives subsidies to some social groups in each month. The main question of this study is that" Has the targeted subsidies caused to economize the gas consumption in residential sector?" For answering the mentioned question, first, the demand of natural gas of residential sector in Iran's region7 (including provinces of Kurdistan, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Ilam, Lorestan and Markazi) is estimated during 2006-2013, using the quarterly based on FMOLS model. Then, the elasticities of price, income and cross of demand are calculated. second, the government performance based on targeted subsidies law on gas consumption in region7 is studied. The results show that the reaction of consumers of natural gas in economizing of gas is not tangible and the policy of targeted subsidies has not been more effective and it has been missing its impact in the residential behaviors for economizing of natural gas.
Amirabbas Farnoudi; Mohamad mahdi Asgari; Mahdi Sadeghi Shahedani; Ali Taheri Fard
Abstract
In this article the rate of return (ROR) and risk factors faced by international oil company (IOC), in IPC contract of Darkhowein oil field is modeled. For this purpose, we analyze the IPC contract specific risk factors that can contribute to a reduction in the rate of return for the international oil ...
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In this article the rate of return (ROR) and risk factors faced by international oil company (IOC), in IPC contract of Darkhowein oil field is modeled. For this purpose, we analyze the IPC contract specific risk factors that can contribute to a reduction in the rate of return for the international oil company including oil price, production level, capital cast, operating cost, and remuneration. The results of the cash flow risk analysis show the impact of these factors on the contractor's rate of return on IPC contracts is not significant in comparison to Buy-back contracts. The most important risk factor in Buy-back contracts is capital cast, which affects a large part of the contractor's returns, but in these contracts, this risk has been significantly reduced due to the government's additional compensation. In general, according to the results, it can be said that in IPC contracts, the contractor's return rate has not been heavily influenced by risk factors, and therefore the risk of the international oil company has fallen in these contracts.
Seyyed Komeil Tayyebi; Rahaman Khoshakhlagh; Maryam Farahani
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 175-197
Abstract
Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic ...
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Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic process is a kind of stochastic differential equation which is assumed to have the variable fluctuating in the proximity of its long run average. In this paper, we measure a proxy of uncertainty for Iran's heavy oil prices by mean reverting stochastic process in the period of 1985-2009. The results indicate that the most uncertainties were in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and the least were in 1985, 1986 and 1998.
Roholla Mahdavi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 178-145
Abstract
With regard to the ever-increasing need for energy in current societies to satisfy various requirements, scientists and researchers from different countries, such as Iran, have a basic approach in their agenda to achieve renewable energies، The scientists believe that with regard to the limited fossil ...
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With regard to the ever-increasing need for energy in current societies to satisfy various requirements, scientists and researchers from different countries, such as Iran, have a basic approach in their agenda to achieve renewable energies، The scientists believe that with regard to the limited fossil fuels and their environmental pollutions, renewable and clean energies can be the first alternative to generate energy، Our country, Iran, has numerous capabilities in the field of generating new and renewable energies، This fact emphasizes the need for an optimum model to develop the use of renewable energies، In line with this objective the costfunction is chosenas the objective function، Given the potential and limits ofrenewable energy (resources Limited), Consumptionof electricpowerin each of16regions (apply Limited) confidencelimits of renewable energy (technical limitations), the model was designed and with use Robust optimization model was solved in LINGO software،The optimum of using renewable energies suggests the 36،71% generation of small hydropower energy, 18،22% wind energy, 17،19% biomass energy, 13،43% geothermal energy, 12،53% tidal energy, and 1% solar energy. ;�|x-8�a X`Y %;line-height:110%;tab-stops:14.2pt;direction:ltr;unicode-bidi: embed'>2- Ciaschini, M et al (2011), “The Effects of Environmental Taxation Through a Dynamic CGE Model, Environmental Federalism: The Political Economy of the Design of Local Taxation and Environmental Protection”, Ancona, Italy, December 9-10, 2011 3- Devarajan, S. (1988), “Lecture Notes on Computable General Equilibrium Models”, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Mimeo, Processed. 4- Hosoe.N and et al (2010), “Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: Programming and Simulations, Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe”, Chippenham and Eastbourne. 5- IEA (2012), World Energy Outlook. 6- Kulmer Y (2011), “Directed Technological Change in a Bottom-Up/Top-Down CGE model: Analysis of Passenger Transport, "Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change”, University of Graz, Austria. 7- Lofgren.H and et.al (2002), “A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMs”, International Food Policy Research Institute. 8- Orlov. A, Grethe. H and McDonald S, (2011), “Energy Policy and Carbon Emission in Russia: A Short Run CGE Analysis”, Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis”, Venice, Italy.Solaymani. 9- S and Kari. F (2014), “Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reform on the Malaysian Economy and Transportation Sector”, Energy Policy, pp. 115-125. 10- Zhengning Pu and Hayashiyama Y (2012), Energy Resource Tax Effects on China’s Regional Economy by SCGE Model, Environmental Economics, vol. 3, issue 1, pp. 41-52. bidi:e�p'<8�a X`Y e='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt; line-height:95%;mso-bidi-font-family:"B Zar";mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>13- Stern, J. (2007), “Gas-OPEC: A Distraction from Important Issues of Russian Gas Supply to Europe”. Oxford Energy Comment. 14- J.F. Nash Jr. (1950), “The Bargaining Problem”, Econometrica, 15(2):155_162. 17- Avrachenkov, K., Elias, J., Martignon, F., Neglia, G. and L. Petrosyan (2011), “A Nash bargaining solution for Cooperative Network Formation Games”, Networking 2011, pages 307–318, 2011 16- Shapley ,L. (1953), “A Value for n-person Games”, In H. Kuhn and A. Tucker, editors, Contribution to the Theory of Games II, page 307. Princeton University Press. 17- Shapley, L., and Shubik, M. (1969), “On Market Games”, Journal of Economic Theory, 1, 9-25. 19- Maskin, Erik (2003), “Coalitional Bargaining with Externalities, Keynote Lecture for the European Economic Association Conference 2003, Stockholm. 20-OME. “Future Natural Gas Supply Options and Supply Costs for Europe”, Report to Madrid Forum, Observatoire M´editerran´een de l’ Energie, 2004 21- Egging, R. and Gabriel, S. A.(2006), “Examining Market Power in the European Natural Gas Market”, Energy Policy, 34:2762–2778.
Davood Manzoor; Roohollah Kohan Hoosh Nejad; Masoud Amani
Abstract
Fiscal regime is one of the main differences between petroleum contracts. Fiscal regimes in oil contracts are divided in two main categories namely Concessionary and Contractual Systems. In contractual systems, the main difference between service and production sharing contracts is the way of compensation ...
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Fiscal regime is one of the main differences between petroleum contracts. Fiscal regimes in oil contracts are divided in two main categories namely Concessionary and Contractual Systems. In contractual systems, the main difference between service and production sharing contracts is the way of compensation of contractor services which could be in cash or in kind. In production sharing contracts the contractor receives a portion of produced oil. One of the main criteria to compare fiscal regimes is government and contractor takes in real values. Comparing the net present value of contractor take shows that PSC could have been more desirable and cost effective in Azadegan, Soroush & Norouz, Forouzan & Esfandyar oil fields than Buy-Back contracts.
Mohammad Reza Kohansal; Samira Shayanmehr
Abstract
Economic growth planning and policy making is one of the macrocosmic goals which it need to pay specific attention to energy and environmental sector and their relationship with production. Therefore, this study has conducted to investigate the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption ...
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Economic growth planning and policy making is one of the macrocosmic goals which it need to pay specific attention to energy and environmental sector and their relationship with production. Therefore, this study has conducted to investigate the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution using a Spatial Panel Simultaneous-Equations model for 9 developing countries during 2000-2011. Empirical results of this method show that energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in each country is affected by these factors in neighboring countries. The results of research confirm there exists bidirectional causality between energy consumption and environmental pollution, economic growth and environmental pollution. Thus, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Regarding to result of this study suggests to achieve the sustainable economic growth should be used tax tools for controlling the emissions of CO2 and replacement of the renewable energies with fossil fuels.
Davoud Manzoor; Masoud Amani; Rouhalla Kohan Hoshnejad
Abstract
The 2012 Petroleum Act outlining the tasks and authority of the Iranian Petroleum Ministry allows implementation of new contractual models including partnership with domestic and foreign investors and contractors in compliance with protective production without transfer of the ownership of oil and gas ...
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The 2012 Petroleum Act outlining the tasks and authority of the Iranian Petroleum Ministry allows implementation of new contractual models including partnership with domestic and foreign investors and contractors in compliance with protective production without transfer of the ownership of oil and gas of the reserves. Although this law refers to the general contractual partnership models which can be interpreted as production sharing, profit sharing, or , but it seems that the most suitable interpretation of this clause is using production sharing contracts in Iranian oil and gas industry because of following reasons; first, the ownership of oil and gas of the reservoirs would not be transferred to foreigners. Second, the nature of the contract allows the partnership in investment to result in the partnership in production. Third, due to the specific characteristics of the upstream sector, mostly the production sharing contracts have found applications in achieving the exploration and development (E & P) as well as production. Forth, the previous production sharing contracts concluded before the Islamic Revolution are available and can be used as reference in this regard. Thus, the main elements of such contracts can be outlined by referring to the terms and conditions of similar previously concluded contracts.
Davood Manzoor; Alireza Rahimi
Abstract
National Iranian Oil Company as the second largest oil company in the world and the biggest business complex of Iran has an undeniable importance in Iran, and its activities and management have significant impact on economic and political spheres of the country. The issue of reforming the NIOC articles ...
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National Iranian Oil Company as the second largest oil company in the world and the biggest business complex of Iran has an undeniable importance in Iran, and its activities and management have significant impact on economic and political spheres of the country. The issue of reforming the NIOC articles of association has been a matter of discussion for years in the legislative and administration departments. The stated reasons could be the separation of state duties from the company duties, defining company’s scope of work, omission of additional advantages and adjustment with the new upstream legislations. This study is an attempt to answer the question of “what are the features and principles of a desirable NIOC articles of association?” This question is dealt with by analyzing the past NIOC articles of association as well as examining the selected similar articles of association from National Oil Companies world-wide. Based on this analysis, the acts such as concentration of NIOC on company duties and administrative affairs, not being involved in government affairs and subsequently submission of all the responsibilities and authorizations related to conservation, controlling and supervision on upstream activities to The Ministry of Petroleum are suggested to the National Iranian Oil Company. Considering the professional and business essence of NIOC responsibilities, the activities of the company must be performed in a competitive context with no specific exclusive advantage. More specifically, NIOC can succeed in a competitive environment only under the circumstances of facing the risks inherent in its activities.
Seyed Nezamuddin Makiyan; Ali Norouzi; Abutaleb Kazemi; Mohammadnabi Shahyki Tash; Parvaneh Zangiabadi
Abstract
This study aims at analyzing the energy intensity and also the effect of changes in the production technology on the efficiency of energy consumption in Iranian manufacturing sector. To this end, a regression method entitled the Translog Cost Equation Function is used to evaluate the energy consumption. ...
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This study aims at analyzing the energy intensity and also the effect of changes in the production technology on the efficiency of energy consumption in Iranian manufacturing sector. To this end, a regression method entitled the Translog Cost Equation Function is used to evaluate the energy consumption. The period of investigation is 1999- 2011. The results show that the energy intensity in the period of investigation is equal to 0.08 percent which indicates the effectiveness of this variable in the industrial sector. Findings also demonstrate that the technology had the lowest effect, while the small change in the price of energy (i.e. substitution and budgetary effects) had the highest effect on the energy intensity. This means that due to the structure of the industrial sector of the Iranian economy and the low price for energy as well as its adequate supply has led to the utilization of energy intensive components.
Omolbanin Jalali; Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd
Abstract
The government budget dependency on oil revenues, in Iranian economy, make the oil price important; so the oil price is one of the most important pillars of the policy for policymakers. The existence of bubble in the oil market makes oil prices more important than before because in these conditions, ...
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The government budget dependency on oil revenues, in Iranian economy, make the oil price important; so the oil price is one of the most important pillars of the policy for policymakers. The existence of bubble in the oil market makes oil prices more important than before because in these conditions, decision-making is difficult for policy makers. The purpose of this study is applying a recursive unit root tests (GSADF, RADF, SADF) to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in Iranian crude oil market. The method delivers a consistent date stamping strategy for origination and termination of bubbles. Our results indicate that these tests are approximately overlapped and their results are relatively the same. The results of GSADF test indicate that there exists 7 bubbles in the period of 01/1980 to 03/2014, in which an average of the bubbles period (almost 15 months) is from 06/2007 to 09/2008 and the lowest bubble period (approximately 1 month) is from 02/2012 to 03/2012. Specifically, the results show that oil price contains the fundamentals and bubble components; the dates of the bubbles correspond to specific events in the politics and financial markets. These findings have important implications to recognize the cause of bubbles and take corresponding measures to reduce the impact on the real sector of economy.
Ali Naghi Mosleh Shirazi; Ahmad Taleb Nezhad; Narges Zamani
Volume 2, Issue 8 , October 2013, , Pages 129-161
Abstract
An important discussion that have been going on among decision makers in power industry, is the idea of restructuring and improving the efficiency and competition in this industry. Thereby, Iran power industry has not been an exception, and since early 1370s it has acted to change its organizational ...
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An important discussion that have been going on among decision makers in power industry, is the idea of restructuring and improving the efficiency and competition in this industry. Thereby, Iran power industry has not been an exception, and since early 1370s it has acted to change its organizational structure. Now the main purpose of this study is to survey and determine the necessity for continuing Iran electricity industry’s restructuring programs. In order to achieve this purpose, Using Delphi method, a questionnaire contained 25 questions were made, and distributed among a panel of 11 selected experts. After three rounds, final results were obtained. These results show that in spite of many shortcomings and problems present in Iran power industry, restructuring process of this industry is evaluated as positive and the continuation of the strategies that has been adopted so far, is required and essential.
Mohammadhossein Mahdavi Adeli; Azam Ghezalbash; Mohammad Daneshnia
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 131-170
Abstract
Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic ...
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Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate in Iran during 1971-2007 period. A vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for this purpose. Impulse Response Function (IRF), the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are then utilized to analyze the results. The major findings are as follows: 1-Gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate are positively affected by oil price fluctuations. 2-Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, indicates that oil price plays a major role in explaining inflation rate and money supply, but it’s role with regard to gross domestic product and government capital expenditures is secondary.
Mostafa Gorgini; Shahram Golestani; Fatemeh Hajabbasi
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 145-168
Abstract
Awareness of the future oil demand is essential for OPEC member countries to determine priorities and policy selection for achieving economic growth and development. In this study, demand for OPEC’s oil, using time-series models Including Vector Autoregressive (VAR), and Autoregressive Integrated ...
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Awareness of the future oil demand is essential for OPEC member countries to determine priorities and policy selection for achieving economic growth and development. In this study, demand for OPEC’s oil, using time-series models Including Vector Autoregressive (VAR), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and an alternative model, artificial neural network (ANN) (using monthly data from 2001:1-2010:10), is predicted. To measure the ability of predictive power of the models, three criteria are used: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that VAR pattern with the error rate of 6% for the sum of squared error, mean absolute error of 19% and 5% of the average of the absolute value is the most appropriate forecast for OPEC’s oil demand. Based on VAR model, it is predicted that demand for oil is growing over all the months in the year 2012. Also, the projected demand in 2015 shows that the demand for OPEC’s oil has a rising trend but in 2014 this trend will be slower.
Mohammed Goli Yousefi; Timur Mohammadi; Navid Maarefzadeh
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, , Pages 147-170
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to forecast demand for crude oil of Iran using Artificial Neural Networks and ARMAX models. The result indicates that Artificial Neural Networks provides an accurate and better picture compared with ARMAX. In order to show whether the variables used in this study are true ...
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The purpose of this paper is to forecast demand for crude oil of Iran using Artificial Neural Networks and ARMAX models. The result indicates that Artificial Neural Networks provides an accurate and better picture compared with ARMAX. In order to show whether the variables used in this study are true determinants of Crude oil demand, we have also applied the same techniques with the same variables to forecast crude oil demand of five selected OPEC countries. The result confirms our earlier findings for Iran. Applying rank correlation coefficient for these findings, show high correlation coefficients between the result for Iran and other countries. Therefore we may say that the variables such as GDP, population, net exports and the number of vehicles are key variables for any forecasting relating to crude oil demands in similar countries.
fyroze Fallahi; Sakineh Sojudi; Seyab Mamipours
Volume 1, Issue 2 , April 2012, , Pages 149-171
Shahram Golestani; Majid Hatefi Majomard Majid Hatefi Majomard; Umm al-Banin Jalali
Volume 2, Issue 6 , April 2013, , Pages 151-182
Abstract
The study has calculated the price path, extraction path and discounted profit for GECF and fringe group with use of genetic algorithm on the basis of Price leadership and collusion models. In this regard, members of "Gas Exporting Countries Forum" have been considered as a pricing cartel and other producers ...
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The study has calculated the price path, extraction path and discounted profit for GECF and fringe group with use of genetic algorithm on the basis of Price leadership and collusion models. In this regard, members of "Gas Exporting Countries Forum" have been considered as a pricing cartel and other producers as the fringe group. For this purpose, annual data (1980-2010) is used for forecasting of studied trends up to year 2070.the result from price leadership model show that world gas demand Increases linearly over the time and it Increases exponentially. On this basis the supply of fringe group also grows increasingly, and the cartels supply (that is the margin between world demand and fringe supply) grows decreasingly. The results from collusion solution indicates that extraction trend is slower in compared with the price leadership solution and the price and profit in collusion solution is more than price leadership solution.
Majid Madah; Maryam Abdollahi
Volume 2, Issue 5 , January 2013, , Pages 171-186
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, foreign trade and human development index and environment pollution with emphasis on role of institutions quality according to Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Based on the EKC hypothesis there is an inverted-U-shaped relationship ...
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This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, foreign trade and human development index and environment pollution with emphasis on role of institutions quality according to Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Based on the EKC hypothesis there is an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income. Although, studies about EKC have grown in recent period but in most of these studies the effect of institutions quality on carbon emissions has not been considered. This case has been tested for members of organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) using the time series data for the period of 1996- 2007. The results from estimation of static and dynamic panel data models show that (i) the EKC hypothesis isn’t empirically supported for members of OIC; (ii) the elasticity of pollution relative to institutions quality is (-0.24) that indicates when institutions, quality increases by 1%, pollution decreases by 0.24%; (iii) energy consumption, foreign trade, human development index have significant and positive effect on pollution; (iv) The results of static and dynamic models estimation are consistent together, although quantity of coefficients in dynamic model are smaller than static model. In dynamic model, the elasticity of pollution relative to institutions quality is (-0.2), which indicates dynamic effects of institutions quality on pollution is smaller than its static effects.
Gahraman Abdoli; Michael Vellaei yamchi
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2011, , Pages 173-187
Abstract
When the exchange rate of the dollar fluctuates, a disequilibrium is created in the market for crude oil. This will be reflected in altered Demand for crude oil and an altered oil price and oil revenue. A depreciation of the dollar may lead to an increase in Demand for crude oil in other currency ...
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When the exchange rate of the dollar fluctuates, a disequilibrium is created in the market for crude oil. This will be reflected in altered Demand for crude oil and an altered oil price and oil revenue. A depreciation of the dollar may lead to an increase in Demand for crude oil in other currency zones (Euro, Yuan, zudian Rupie, etc). In this paper we investigate the Long-term relationship between oil price and oil exchange rates oil Import china and India by using a nominal monthly from2006:1 to 2010:12.The results show that nominal depreciation is us Dollar vs. Euro and Chinese Yuan has a significantly positive effect on OPEC oil prices. Whereas the change of Dollar value va. Indian Rupie has no significant effect on oil prices.
sayed AliAkbar Motahary; Majid Ahmadian; Zahra Abedi; Hamid Reza Ghafarzadeh Ghafarzadeh
Volume 3, Issue 10 , April 2014, , Pages 179-200
Abstract
development of wind power usage in Iran. The economics of energy production from wind and gas power plants are compared. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is used as an index to compare the plants’ cost of electricity production. LCOE is a well-known index to measure the economics of a plant ...
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development of wind power usage in Iran. The economics of energy production from wind and gas power plants are compared. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is used as an index to compare the plants’ cost of electricity production. LCOE is a well-known index to measure the economics of a plant once all the factors such as cost of air pollutants and exchange rates are to be considered. We show that by removing subsidies from conventional fuels in Iran, wind power plants are completely cost effective. Due to the opportunity cost of gasoline, power generation from wind can provide the ability to export gasoline. The benefit increases by designing and constructing of infrastructures required to develop the technology inside the country. It is worth mentioning that due to changes in exchange rates, policies should be directed towards developing the wind turbine technology inside the country which in turn provides job opportunities.
Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie; Morteza Khorsandi; Teymor Mohammadi; Shahla Khaleghi; Abbas Shakeri; Seyed Taghi Abtahi Foroshani
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 191-220
Abstract
After the oil shocks of the 70s, oil extraction policy has become more important in two aspects. In one aspect, economists have reconsidered the Hotelling (1931) model about optimal natural resource extraction rate and in other aspect, engineers has paid more attention to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) ...
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After the oil shocks of the 70s, oil extraction policy has become more important in two aspects. In one aspect, economists have reconsidered the Hotelling (1931) model about optimal natural resource extraction rate and in other aspect, engineers has paid more attention to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods. Economic theory of natural resources extraction is designed for maximization of discounted profit but in engineering point of view enhanced oil recovery with considering maximum efficient rate (MER) shape the optimal extraction rate. As a result, combination of these important economic and engineering concepts could be comprehensive definition of the optimal oil extraction rate. This idea has been investigated for one of the southwest Iranian oilfield where natural gas injection as an EOR method has been applied. In this study, we have utilized the optimal control theory which considers all of the above mentioned assumption. The results about cost function indicated that oil extraction cost increases with decreasing remaining reserves. Result about optimal extraction rate showed that for discount rate higher than 10 percent, extraction rate has not been dependent to three EIA oil price scenarios. Optimal oil extraction model depends on discount rate. Low dependency to the oil revenue leads to conservative extraction but otherwise maximum extraction in early years and minimum extraction in the latest years would be optimal.
Mohammad Ali Falahi; Mohammad Hossein Mahdavi Adeli; Fereshteh Jandaghi
Volume 3, Issue 11 , July 2014, , Pages 195-225
Abstract
Today, the abundance of natural resources and corruption are important economic issues, especially in developing countries. In this study, using pooled Ordinary Least Squares and panel data approaches, the relationship between these two factors in OPEC countries is estimated during 2003-2010. Along with ...
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Today, the abundance of natural resources and corruption are important economic issues, especially in developing countries. In this study, using pooled Ordinary Least Squares and panel data approaches, the relationship between these two factors in OPEC countries is estimated during 2003-2010. Along with the oil and mineral rents (as a measure of natural resource abundance), other control variables such as per capita income, degree of openness and democracy are applied. The results show that the oil and mineral rents have significant and positive effect on the corruption level. This relationship, using other measures instead of the oil rents, is re-confirmed. Per capita income and openness also have significant negative effects on the corruption level, and there is no evidence that improving democracy reduces the corruption level, although it moderates the negative effect of natural resources on the corruption.
Nader Mehregan; Nader Mehregan
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 208-183
Abstract
The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate ...
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The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367.1 -1389.4 using Markov switching model. The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return, although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth, but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.
Davood Manzoor; Hossein Rezaee
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 215-199
Abstract
It is expected that fuel price increase for power plant uses would lead into an electricity price increase and consequently electricity production, emissions pollutions and greenhouse change. To quantify these effects we develop a system dynamics model for the electricity market in Iran consisting of ...
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It is expected that fuel price increase for power plant uses would lead into an electricity price increase and consequently electricity production, emissions pollutions and greenhouse change. To quantify these effects we develop a system dynamics model for the electricity market in Iran consisting of demand, price and generation modules. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of fuel reforming plants on emissions pollutions and greenhouse. To quantify these effects we develop a system dynamics model for the electricity market in Iran and this model is solved and simulated using POWERSIM software. According to the results, , if the subsidized prices for power plant fuel uses are still maintained, in the framework of the model Emissions pollutions and greenhouse, assuming growth rates at the end of period 5 and 8 percent, respectively, in the (-%1) and 3%. With modified fuel delivery price to power plants, the amount of environmental pollutants, assuming growth rates at end of period 5 and 8 percent, respectively, in the (-1) percent and (3) percent. In the final part of the paper, effect of increase on PowerEfficiency in the model has been studied, Assuming growth rates of 5 and 8 percent, emissions pollutions and greenhouse rate are expected to reach the end of the period to (-0.6) percent and (+0.4) percent compared with price reform, respectively.
