• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Mohammad Mahdi Najafi; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The ...
Read More
Among the most important indicators that depend on political-economic-social stability is inflation control; because people's activism has a high tendency towards the stability of inflation; Therefore, gaining political power in societies depends on providing a program to control inflation. The increase in the high inflation rate is associated with macroeconomic instability, increased welfare, unfair distribution of wealth, and a decrease in household purchasing power. Monetarist considers excessive growth of money volume, excess demand in the commodity market, some cost pressure and increase in the price of production inputs, and institutionalists consider structural factors and bottlenecks in various economic and commercial sectors to be the main cause of inflation. Therefore, knowing the factors affecting inflation and providing a solution to control and reduce inflation can lead to socio-economic justice. The components of good governance can also lead to the reduction of inflation through the channel of increasing productivity and improving institutional quality and increasing the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. This research aims to investigate the factors influencing inflation with an emphasis on good governance in oil exporting countries using the generalized moment method (GMM) in the time period (2011-2021). The obtained results indicate that the inflation break, the difference between GDP growth and liquidity growth had a positive effect and good governance had a negative effect on the inflation rate.
Ali Takroosta; Parisa Mohajeri; Teymour Mohamadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, ...
Read More
Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, we disentangled oil shocks and studied their impacts on OPEC’s GDP growth and inflation, using a Panel-VAR for 1994:1-2016:4. Our results highlight that among oil shocks, the oil price shocks stemming from the political risk of OPEC countries have the most significant impact on the OPEC's economic growth, while not having any significant impact on inflation of the countries. We also learned that oil supply shocks could also boost economic growth and increase inflation rates in OPEC countries, although these increases are not significant. Other oil price shocks will only lead to higher inflation in these countries without affecting OPEC's economic growth.
