• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Hossein Hafezi; Mahbube Delfan
Abstract
The electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is crucial. In ...
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The electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is crucial. In this regard, the combined ARDL and ARIMA technique is used in the current study to forecast the nation's electricity demand. With an emphasis on the impact of temperature and various rates of economic growth, this study attempts to forecast Iran's total electricity demand over 30 years (2021 to 2050) under 4 alternative scenarios. The development of the scenario is based on the rise in the nation's average temperature and various rates of economic growth. The first and second scenarios rely on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 26% per annum and economic growth rates of 2% and 8%. Furthermore, the third and fourth ones are based on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 45% a year and economic growth rates of 2 and 8%. The study's findings reveal that temperature and economic growth have a substantial impact on how much electricity is consumed, but they also indicate that as temperatures rise and the GDP expands, there will be a huge increase in demand for electricity. Additionally, additional findings show that the power demand is inelastic to price fluctuations. As a result, efforts to reduce electricity consumption should be based on policies to increase energy efficiency as well as policies to regulate temperature and greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the proportion of renewable technologies in the nation's electricity supply portfolio.
Hamid Reza horee; sated Abolmagged galali; sayeed gafare
Volume 2, Issue 6 , April 2013, , Pages 27-48
Abstract
Today, environmental issues, especially water and air pollution problems have become a major global concern. Air pollution, affects the health of living organisms and natural ecosystems. According to various studies, financial development in a country may attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and higher ...
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Today, environmental issues, especially water and air pollution problems have become a major global concern. Air pollution, affects the health of living organisms and natural ecosystems. According to various studies, financial development in a country may attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and higher degrees of research and development (R&D). This, in turn can, increase the environmental performance and thereby reduce environmental pollution. This investigation aims to examine the role of financial development and energy consumption in Iran during 1971-2007, in the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve, using ARDL approach. According to results further financial development in Iran lead to decrease of CO2 emissions. In addition, an increase in energy consumption in Iran is likely to increase CO2 emissions. Also, the results reject the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Iran in the long-term.
