• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Sarah Akbari; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Reza Arbab; Reza Taleblou
Abstract
Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel. Firms which are using crude oil in their products are facing a risk of price volatility which has different reactions in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant ...
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Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel. Firms which are using crude oil in their products are facing a risk of price volatility which has different reactions in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant industry is completely connected to the oil price. With this philosophy when the economy faced volatility the market players faced loss and so to overcome this issue they began to hedge themselves with another commodity. This hedging process in different regimes has different rates. So there is a need to introduce a new model. From the work of Hamiltonian (1989) oil price has its own volatility and regimes so to this attitude there is an effort to calculate an efficient hedging ratio with regime switching dynamic constant correlation. In this article, monthly data of oil and gold prices for about 10 years from 2010 till 2020 is used and the model is programed with MATLAB. The result showed that the efficient hedge ratio for the first regime (first major change in price of two markets) is 66 percent and the second (second major change in price of two markets) one is 26 percent.
Nader Mehregan; Nader Mehregan
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 208-183
Abstract
The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate ...
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The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands, the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons, present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367.1 -1389.4 using Markov switching model. The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return, although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth, but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.
