• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
parisa Mohajeri; Ali Faridzad; Fatemeh Amirjahani
Abstract
Oil and natural gas production is not uniformly and homogeneously distributed across all provinces of Iran, whereas a major part of oil and gas incomes is consumed in provinces that do not have any significant role in oil and gas production. Therefore, any disruption in the production of oil and gas ...
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Oil and natural gas production is not uniformly and homogeneously distributed across all provinces of Iran, whereas a major part of oil and gas incomes is consumed in provinces that do not have any significant role in oil and gas production. Therefore, any disruption in the production of oil and gas might expose the GDP growth of all provinces at risk. In this paper, the multiregional input-output table is calculated for the year 2015. Then, the hypothetical extraction method introduced by Dietzenbacher and Lahr (2013) is employed for estimating the effect of partial and complete extraction of oil and gas production in Khuzestan and other oil-oriented regions on the value-added of 71 economic activities in each of the regions. The findings reveal that firstly, following the extraction of oil and gas production in Khuzestan, the value added of this region reduces about %32 , while the extraction of the corresponding sector in other oil-related regions will mitigate this region’s value added by %14. Secondly, the relative reduction in the value added of economic sectors and each sector’s contribution of value-added reduction in each region depend on the economic structure of the interested region. The highest share of the total value-added reduction in each region belongs to the service sector in Tehran and agriculture in other non-oil regions. It seems that diversifying energy resources as well as supplying regions, enhancing fuel consumption efficiency, and renovating the transportation system are the most important policies to have more resilience.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Leila Eghbali; Reza Ranjpour; Seyed Kamal Sadeghi
Abstract
Half a century after the oil crisis in the 1970s, there is still not any agreement among economists when it comes to the type and existence of any relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. In this regard, many studies have been conducted, and many methods have also been adopted to ...
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Half a century after the oil crisis in the 1970s, there is still not any agreement among economists when it comes to the type and existence of any relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. In this regard, many studies have been conducted, and many methods have also been adopted to find this relationship, most of which are now proved to be inappropriate and inefficient. Having utilized a new causality approach proposed by Konya (2006), this study investigated the relationship between three energy carriers, natural gas, electricity, oil products, as well as considering the value-added of sixteen main industrial sub-sectors in the period 1995-2017, via the bootstrap panel approach. Comparison to the traditional methods, one of Konya's merits is paying attention to the two categories of heterogeneity of coefficients and cross-sectional correlation, making the estimation of parameters more efficient. The results show that in five sub-sectors of the industry, including “rubber and plastic”, “other non-metallic mineral products”, “manufacture of machines and unclassified equipment”, “machinery generator, electric transmission, and unclassified electrical appliances”, “manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” there is a one-way causal relationship from value-added to natural gas consumption. On the other hand, in an industrial sub-sector of “manufacture of chemical products”, this relationship is two-way. Also, there is a lack of causal relationship between electricity consumption and value-added in sixteen industrial sub-sectors. Moreover, a one-way relationship from value-added to the consumption of oil products can be seen only in the industrial sub-sector of “manufacture of other transport equipment”. According to the results of this study, it seems that energy consumption is not dominant in the economic growth of the Iranian economy, and the government can adopt necessary policies regarding energy price liberalization and demand management without worrying about its dire consequences.
Abolghasem Golkhandan; Mohammad Alizadeh
Abstract
This study investigates the causal linkages between consumption of energy carriers and value added in the Iranian economic sectors for the period 1974-2013 by using the granger causality test in heterogeneous mixed panels. For this, the panel causality testing approach, the method developed by Emirmahmutoglu ...
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This study investigates the causal linkages between consumption of energy carriers and value added in the Iranian economic sectors for the period 1974-2013 by using the granger causality test in heterogeneous mixed panels. For this, the panel causality testing approach, the method developed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and Wald tests with the country specific bootstrap critical values, is applied. This test, accounts cross dependency and heterogeneity among the members of the panel and also, co-integration between variables. Based on the results, the existence of a unidirectional causality relation of oil and gas to value added and the existence of a bidirectional causality relation between electricity and value added in the service sector and the entire sectors is confirmed. In agriculture sector, there is only a causal relation of electricity on value added. In industry sector, the existence of a bidirectional causality relation between gas and electricity with value added and the existence of a unidirectional causality relation of value added to oil is confirmed. In transportation sector, there is a causal relation of gas and electricity to value added and there is a bidirectional causality relation between the oil and the value added. The results can provide important policy recommendations in planning and explaining energy sector policies at the level sector in country.
