• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
younes khodaparast; Teymour Mohamadi; Hossein Tavakolian
Abstract
Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand ...
Read More
Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand shocks) and technological oil production shocks (supply shocks) on macroeconomic variables are investigated in the form of the Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Annual data for the years 1352-1396 have been used to estimate the model parameters. The results show that oil consumption efficiency shocks in the household and production sectors have a positive and significant effect on oil exports, oil investment, total employment, and government spending. However, the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the household sector reduce oil production and household’s oil consumption and increase inflation, while the effect of the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the production sector on these three variables is inverse. Also, technological oil production shocks have a positive effect on oil investment, oil production and export, non-oil employment, total consumption, government spending, and inflation, and in contrast, slightly reduce employment in the oil sector and oil consumption. Given that the above three shocks have positive effects on oil exports, oil investment, employment, government revenue, and even the level of consumption and non-oil production, appropriate planning and policy-making that stimulates consumer productivity and improves oil production technology should be on the agenda of policymakers.
Mohammadhossein Mahdavi Adeli; Azam Ghezalbash; Mohammad Daneshnia
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 131-170
Abstract
Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic ...
Read More
Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate in Iran during 1971-2007 period. A vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for this purpose. Impulse Response Function (IRF), the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are then utilized to analyze the results. The major findings are as follows: 1-Gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate are positively affected by oil price fluctuations. 2-Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, indicates that oil price plays a major role in explaining inflation rate and money supply, but it’s role with regard to gross domestic product and government capital expenditures is secondary.
