• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Sahar Dashtban Farooji; Hassan Dargahi
Abstract
The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. ...
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The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. One of the most important issues for the development of international gas trade is to examine the possibility of exporting Iran's natural gas in the near future. The present study tries to estimate and simulate an econometric model including macroeconomic and energy variables, analyze the outlook of domestic demand and balance of natural gas in different conditions of Iran's macroeconomics, and assess the feasibility of exporting natural gas. The simulation of different scenarios for the period 2022-2032 shows three findings. Firstly, continuing the current policies result in the undesirable trend of the TFP at the macroeconomic level and economic inefficiency in the energy sector. Secondly, macroeconomic policy reforms in order to raise economic growth result in a negative natural gas balance. Thirdly, for the reduction of energy intensity, the energy price reform is not a sufficient policy, and emphasizing the non-price factors towards technical progress in order to rise energy efficiency is important. In addition, making an investment decision for infrastructure development of potential natural gas supply is important as a necessary condition.
Younes Nademi; Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi
Abstract
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of ...
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Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of sanctions on the unemployment rate in Iran's economy. To this end, the effect of positive and negative oil price shocks and the intensity of sanctions on Iran's unemployment rate during the period 1980-2015 was investigated using Markov switching method. The results of this study show that the positive impact of oil prices has had a negative effect on unemployment and has led to a reduction in unemployment and, in contrast to the negative impact of oil prices, has had a positive and increasing effect on unemployment. Also, the results of the unemployment model estimation indicate that the increase in the intensity of sanctions has had an increasing impact on unemployment. Finally, Iran’s economy is on average 2.8 years in the high unemployment regime and 1.4 years in the low unemployment regime that indicates the persistence of high unemployment rate in Iran's economy
